Banks

Goldman Sachs upgrades Bendigo Bank & Westpac to Buy: Deposit pricing drives upside risk to NIMs

Mon 01 Aug 22, 11:31am (AEST)
Sunrise
Source: Unsplash

Stocks in article

wbc
MktCap:
-
ben
MktCap:
-

Share article

Key Points

  • Bendigo Bank and Westpac have been upgraded to Buy from Hold by Goldman Sachs
  • Both banks to benefit from higher rates playing through to net interest margins (NIMs) quicker than peers
  • The broker's target prices on both banks implies 20%-plus 12-month total shareholder return

Having concluded that their net interest margins (NIM) are leveraged to higher rates, Goldman Sachs has upgraded Bendigo and Adelaide Bank (ASX: BEN) and Westpac (ASX: WBC) to Buy from Hold with both banks having entered the broker’s coveted conviction list.

To reflect a more supportive deposit pricing environment, Goldman’s now has sector NIMs rising by 10 bp in FY23 (previously 4 bp), and then 3 bp in FY24 (previously 3 bp), with the broker’s trough to peak system margin assumption for the sector now 13 bp (previously 7 bp).

While Bendigo was up 1.36% at the open, Westpac opened around -1% lower.

Housing/commercial volumes and BDD

Despite higher expenses, the broker's revised sector earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for FY22, FY23, and FY24 sit between -1.5% and 8.8%, 5% above Visible Alpha consensus on Pre-provision operating profit (PPOP).

In addition to higher NIMs, much of Goldman’s revised earnings are attributed to year-over-year system housing credit growth, extended strength in commercial volumes, an average of 4% expense (ex-large/notable items) growth in FY22, FY23, and FY24.

Overall, the broker also expects bad and doubtful debts (BDD) to remain low in the second half of 2022.

Westpac

Goldman’s $26.12 target price on Westpac implies a 28% 12-month total shareholder return.

The broker believes Westpac provides strong leverage to rising rates and will particularly benefit from the relative lack of domestic deposit repricing witnessed since recent rates cash rate rises.

The broker also expects the bank’s shorter-dated replicating portfolio - three-years for deposits versus five-years for peers - to reap the benefit of higher rates playing through its NIM quicker than peers.

Goldman’s expects the inflationary environment to make Westpac’s $8bn expense target by FY24 unachievable.

However, the broker’s like-for-like FY24 expense forecast of circa $8.9bn still implies an -18% reduction in reported expenses versus 1H22 annualised, and a -7% reduction in expenses, (excluding large/notable items and the impact of potential asset sales).

“On our revised forecasts and target prices, [Westpac] now offers the most upside of the banks over the next 12 months,” the broker notes.

“Beyond this, we note the stock is trading at a 20% discount to peers, versus the historic average 2% discount.”

image
Westpac share price over six months.

Bendigo

Goldman’s $11.89 target price implies a 21% 12-month total shareholder return.

The broker believes Bendigo’s volume momentum is strong and improving, growing at 1.5x mortgage system over 12-months, and 2.2x over the last three months.

Given Bendigo’s overall higher exposure to deposit funding, and higher exposure to rate inert deposits, Goldman’s believes the bank provides the best exposure of the banks to rising rates.

The broker also expects more aggressive cash rate hikes to flow through Bendigo’s P&L quicker than peers, especially given the bank does not replicate its exposure to higher rates.

“[Bendigo] has exhibited better discipline than its regional peers on deposit repricing in the face of higher cash rates, which should also support its NIM performance… We also expect [Bendigo’s] PPOP performance should be supported by its discipline on expenses,” the broker notes.

“…with an estimated over-the-cycle loss rate of just 15 bp, versus 22 bp on average for the major banks. This leaves it well-placed should the macro environment deteriorate more than what is currently implied by our forecasts.”

image
Bendigo and Adelaide Bank share price over six months.

 

Written By

Mark Story

Editor

Mark is an investigative financial journalist and editor who started his career working for Marathon Oil in London. He has a degree in politics/economics and a diploma in journalism. Mark has worked on 70-plus newspapers and financial publications across Australia, NZ, the US, and Asia including: The Australian Financial Review, Money Magazine, Australian Property Investor and Finance Asia. Mark is passionate about improving the financial literacy of all Australians through the highest quality content. Email Mark at [email protected].

Get the latest news and media direct to your inbox

Sign up FREE