Economic Calendar: US inflation and rate hikes from NZ, Canada and Korea

It’s a massive week for economic data and interest rate decisions. The S&P/ASX 200 and broader financial markets seem to be getting close to pricing in short-to-medium term interest rate expectations, but that might change with the figures coming through this week. 

Country

US

Global financial markets will pay close attention to US inflation figures on Wednesday. Economists expect CPI to remain elevated at 8.8% year-on-year in June following a 8.6% reading in May.

US Inflation Rate (Source: TradingView)

UK

The UK Conservative Party is in the midst of selecting a new leader after Boris Johnson stepped down last week.

There will be a massive UK data dump on Wednesday, including GDP growth for May. GDP is expected to remain flat month-on-month after a -0.3% contraction in April. 

Germany 

Germany’s ZEW Economic Sentiment Index has been dabbling close to all-time lows around -30 to -50. Figures are expected to worsen in July, down to -40.

We’ll also get a look at the final German CPI for June on Wednesday, which has been easing thanks to government subsidies for oil.

China

It’s a heavy week for Chinese economic data, as covid cases return to several cities including Shanghai, Beijing and Xi’an.

Data is especially heavy on Friday, where investors will see figures for GDP, industrial production, retail sales and housing prices.

Economists expect China’s second-quarter GDP growth to moderate to 1.7% year-on-year and down -2.1% compared to the first quarter. A growth beat could send some positive flows for commodity markets, especially iron ore. 

Australia 

Aussie unemployment is expected to remain unchanged at all-time lows of 3.9% in June.

New Zealand

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to hike interest rates by 50 bps to 2.5% on Wednesday. A 25 or 75 bps hike is possible, but unlikely. 

Economic events

Monday, July 11

None

Tuesday, July 12

• 11:30 am: Australia NAB Business Confidence

• 7:00 pm: Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index

Wednesday, July 13

• 10:30 am: Australia Consumer Confidence

• 11:00 am: Korea Interest Rate Decision

• 12:00 pm: New Zealand Interest Rate Decision

• 1:00 pm: China Balance of Trade, Exports and Imports (June)

• 4:00 pm: Germany Inflation Rate (June)

• 4:00 pm: UK GDP (May)

• 10:30 pm: US Inflation (June)

Thursday, July 14

• 12:00 am: Canada Interest Rate Decision

• 11:30 am: Australia Unemployment Rate

• 10:30 pm: US Producer Price Index (June)

Friday, July 15

• 11:30 am: China GDP

• 11:30 am: China House Price Index, Industrial Production, Retail Sales, Fixed Asset Investment

• 10:30 pm: US Retail Sales