ASX Dividend Stocks: This company has paid its market cap in dividends in the last seven years
Jupiter Mines has paid $410m in dividends since 2019 vs its $430m market cap. Is this ASX manganese miner undervalued at 23 cents?
Mentioned
KEY POINTS
- Jupiter Mines has distributed $410 million in dividends since 2019 vs. its current market cap of approximately $430 million
- Exxaro's recent acquisition values Jupiter's Tshipi stake at $596 million, significantly above its current market cap
- Manganese prices have stabilised around US$3.3/mtu in recent years but well below 2018 highs of US$7.0/mtu
I'm on a mission to uncover some of the ASX's most interesting dividend-paying stocks, providing the key data and forecasts investors need to make informed decisions. Today, we're taking a look at Jupiter Mines.
Jupiter Mines (ASX: JMS) operates as a manganese miner with a 49.9% stake in Tshipi, the world's largest producing and longest-life manganese mine.
Since 2019, the company has paid out $410 million in dividends vs. its current market cap of around $430 million. This is backed by Tshipi's longstanding track record of delivering reliable production at competitive costs, resulting in solid earnings and dividends through the cycle.
About 90% of manganese is used in steelmaking, where it acts as a deoxidiser and alloying agent. It's essential for making steel stronger and more wear-resistant. This remains the dominant use case outside of emerging use cases in batteries and EVs.
What makes Jupiter Mines interesting
Leverage to manganese price. As a pure play, the stock heavily correlated to the manganese price. Though prices have declined over the past couple of years, trading around US$3.3/mtu, down from 2018 highs of US$7.0/mtu. Despite the downtrend, this leverage has shown instances of benefiting investors.
Manganese prices surged in early 2024 when South32 suspended operations at its Groote Eylandt Mining Company (GEMCO) following infrastructure damage from Tropical Cyclone Megan. GEMCO supplies approximately 10% of global manganese, with prior FY24 guidance of 1.7 million tonnes. JMS shares briefly doubled mid-March and early May.
Source: Jupiter Mines
Recent JV selldown: Exxaro recently acquired 50.1% of Tshipi from joint venture partners Ntsimbintle and OM Holdings. OMH's sale of its 13% stake for US$101.4 million (A$155m) implies Tshipi's total valuation at A$1.19 billion, or Jupiter's stake at A$596 million.
A new major shareholder: Simultaneously, Exxaro purchased 392 million Jupiter shares from Ntsimbintle at 31.7 cents per share, a substantial 120% premium to pre-announcement levels. Despite this transaction, JMS continues trading around 23 cents.
While the company might sound undervalued due to the last two points, the market's response has been surprisingly muted. The stock rallied 58% over May 13-14 but quickly retreated to 20 cent levels, where it remained range-bound for three months before showing recent signs of breakout.
Jupiter Mines daily price chart (Source: TradingView)
Analyst forecasts
Macquarie analysts project modest growth and dividends through FY29:
FY24 | FY25e | FY26e | FY27e | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA ($m) | 41 | 38 | 49 | 28 |
Net profit ($m) | 39 | 37 | 49 | 28 |
Dividend per share (cents) | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.7 |
Dividend yield (%) | 6.0% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 3.4% |
Manganese price (44%, US$/mtu) | 3.77 | 3.97 | 4.66 | 4.7 |
Source: Macquarie | August 2025
The analysts highlighted a relatively soft June quarter for JMS, with realized prices of US$3.86/dmtu declining 4% quarter-on-quarter in a "challenging market for manganese." However, they noted positively that "the Tshipi mine managed to maintain strong margins during the quarter even in a soft commodity price environment."
The bottom line
Jupiter Mines demonstrates operational consistency, delivering solid earnings across market cycles and translating this into reliable dividend payments. Manganese prices have stabilised around the low-to-mid US$3/dmtu range in recent years, well below the US$4-5/dmtu levels of 2019-20. This pricing environment has resulted in minimal share price upside in recent years, with the stock mostly trading around the mid-20 cent level.
You can clearly see its leverage to manganese prices, with the South32 incident briefly doubling the share price. But as the GEMCO operation came back online and manganese prices normalised, the stock was also quick to give back all of its gains.
It'll be interesting to see where manganese prices go from here.
