ASX 200 Live Today - Wednesday, 3rd September

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Wednesday, September 3. We’re excited to trial this new format. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. Today's live blog will wrap up around 2:00 pm AEST. Be sure to refresh manually for the latest updates — and let us know how we can make it even better.

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Let's see where the dust settles

[14:55 pm] The ASX 200 sold off pretty hard today. The intraday price chart pretty much runs from the top left of the screen to the bottom right, currently down 1.64% and set to close below the 50-day moving average for the first time since mid-April.

As we noted this morning, lots of bearish catalysts.

• US equities started September on a risk-off tone after four straight months of gains for the major indexes and five for the Nasdaq.

• Tariff uncertainty resurfaced after a US Court of Appeals upheld the ruling that Trump’s IEEPA tariffs are illegal, but kept them in place pending an appeal to the Supreme Court. Businesses face ongoing difficulty in setting prices amid policy ambiguity.

• Bond yields remain an overhang with pressure from global fiscal strains and political instability. France has been a focal point in Europe while US government shutdown risks are building into October.

• Concerns about Fed independence are gaining traction. Some strategists argue markets are underpricing the risk, with equities and bonds yet to reflect potential challenges to policy autonomy.

• AI sector scrutiny is intensifying around high capex requirements, weak monetisation, rising China competition and mixed earnings updates.

• Geopolitical risks remain elevated with attention on strengthening ties between China, Russia and India.

We'll just have to see where the dust settles after such a strong April-August run up. That's it for Wednesday.

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Australian industrial activity slips

[14:51 pm] The Australian Industry Index fell by 7.9 points to -13.9 seasonally adjusted in August, falling back from last month’s peak. Here are some of the key findings from the report (released this morning):

• Activity declined in August, with sales, employment, new orders and input indicators all shedding gains from a new financial year boost which occurred in July.

• Construction continues its recovery with the PCI indicator returning to positive territory. Business services had a weak month while manufacturing remains deep in contraction.

• The sales price indicator has begun to rise, indicating industrials are regaining the ability to pass rising costs onto customers.

• Softening employment and wages indicators point to further easing in the labour market, offering some relief for industrial employers.

Source: AI Group

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ASX falls below 20-day moving average

[13:54 pm] The local bourse is flagging that the ASX 200 has now fallen below its 20-day moving average.

"The S&P/ASX 200 is lower today, dropping 130.70 points or 1.47% to 8,769.90 and crossing below its 20-day moving average. The bottom performing stocks in this index are Xero and Lendlease, down 5.72% and 4.97% respectively. The index has lost 2.13% for the last five days, but sits 3.14% below its 52-week high," the ASX says.

By Tom Richardson.

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Westpac says Australian economy a beat in June quarter

[13:35 pm] The economics team at Westpac says the local economy grew better than expected in the June quarter.

"The June quarter National Accounts were stronger than expected with GDP growing 0.6% qtr and 1.7% in six-month annualised terms," the banks said. "Household spending was much firmer than we expected, partly reflecting higher discretionary services spending due to unusually close proximity of the Easter and ANZAC day public holidays. "

By Tom Richardson.

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GDP data means risk is RBA may be less inclined to cut rates

[13:12 pm] Steven Dooley the Head of Market Insights at Convera says today's stronger-than-expected GDP data may give the Reserve Bank pause for thought on rate cuts.

“GDP is stronger than expected and, most notably, the household sector drove gains with household consumption up 0.9% over the quarter. Discretionary spending was up 1.4%," Dooley says.

With household spending stronger, and domestic price pressures growing driven by increases in labour costs, the risk is the RBA might be less inclined to cut rates.

The OIS market pricing for a cut on 30 September fell from 22% yesterday to 18% after the announcement.

The AUD/USD was moderately higher after the GDP announcement with the pair climbing from 0.6510 to 0.6530 on the news."

By Tom Richardson.

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4DMedical surges 30%

[12:45 pm] The respiratory lung imaging technology company announced its ventilation-perfusion product CT:VQ, has received U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approval.

This stock has been a rollercoaster ride, but some in the market like it.

By Tom Richardson.

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Aussie shares head for worst day in five weeks

[12:37 pm] Sellers are in control as shares fall 1.13% at lunchtime.

The local market is on track for its worst day in five weeks as investors dump tech stocks on worries about rising bond yields and valuations.

Xero and payments group Block are both down 4.5%.

Gold miners are dominating the leaderboard once again.

By Tom Richardson.

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Aussie bond yields climb after GDP data

[12:25 am] Australian rate traders are paring back expectations of interest rate cuts, after GDP for the June quarter rose 0.6%, fractionally ahead of expectations at 0.5%.

The Australian 1-year bond yield is up 4 basis points to 3.47%.

Aussie 5-years are up 5 basis points to 3.67%.

By Tom Richardson.

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ASX 200 extends weakness

[11:47 am] The S&P/ASX 200 has continued to slump after a -0.50% open, currently down -0.94%. Every sector is now in the red, with notable losses from banks and tech.

• Banks: Judo (-2.1%), Westpac (-2.0%), Bendigo Bank (-1.7%), CBA (-1.6%), Macquarie Group (-1.6%), NAB (-1.1%)

• Tech: Xero (-4.4%), Technology One (-3.4%), Life360 (-2.6%), Audinate (-2.2% , Wisetech (-1.8%)

S&P/ASX 200 sectors (Source: Market Index)

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Woodside rejects US listing rumours

[11:08 am] Woodside CEO Meg O’Neill says the company is proudly Australian and plans to remain so, while noting that the US offers attractive long-term investment opportunities due to strong energy demand and low corporate taxes.

She adds that hydrogen markets have developed slower than expected, but LNG and low-carbon ammonia remain robust, and she is unconcerned about Gazprom’s Power of Siberia 2 pipeline to China given Woodside’s existing long-term LNG offtake agreements.

Meanwhile, Woodside is progressing its Louisiana LNG project and discussing with the US government the logistics of materials into the foreign-trade zone.

Source: AFR

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Virgin pushes for breakout

[11:04 am] Interesting to see Virgin up 2.6% ($3.52) on a relatively weak day for the broader market. The stock has been mostly trading sideways since its debut on 24 June.

Virgin daily price chart (Source: TradingView)

The stock rallied 6.0% ($3.49%) on 28 August thanks to a strong result from Qantas. Then it reported its own results on 29 August, with FY25 numbers broadly in-line with prospectus forecasts. Some of the key analyst takeaways post earnings include:

• UBS retained Buy, raised target from $3.90 to $4.10: Results met expectations, transformation is supporting margin expansion, and ancillary revenue growth is a key driver, though sustainability of strong cash flow is uncertain.

• Goldman Sachs retained Buy, raised target from $3.60 to $3.90: Demand remains strong across segments, market structure is rational, and Virgin’s SME positioning avoids destructive fare wars.

• CLSA retained Hold, raised target from $3.19 to $3.51: Steady loyalty program growth and capacity outlook support fundamentals, though valuation remains cautious.

• E&P retained Neutral, raised target from $3.12 to $3.66: Margins and balanced growth are expected to improve, but cost inflation and limited near-term valuation upside keep a neutral stance.

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ASX 200 gainers and losers in early trade

[11:00 am] Gold miners topped the large cap leaderboards while the risk-off mood weighs on tech names like Block, Xero and Technology One.

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Gold stocks broadly higher

[10:17 am] Local gold names are trading broadly higher, though gains are relatively modest as most have rallied 20-40% since early August.

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ASX 200 opens lower

[10:02 am] The S&P/ASX 200 opened 0.40% lower, marking a potential fourth straight day of declines.

Sector performance is very mixed, with Utilities (-2.03%), Tech (-1.58%) and Financials (-0.73%) leading the downward move.

As my colleague wrote earlier this week:

• The ASX has rallied toward 9,000, supported by strong July and August, historically two of the best months for local shares.

• September is the weakest month over the past 40 years, with an average return of –0.11%, the only month with a negative average return.

• Reliability is lowest in September — the market has risen just 52.5% of the time in that month over the past 40 years, compared to >50% for every other month.

• October’s long-term average return is slightly positive (+0.07%), with rebounds in early October offsetting September weakness.

• Weekly patterns show heightened volatility from week 36 onward, with September through November containing the worst individual weeks of the year for the All Ords.

• Several major downturns have historically begun in September, including the lead-up to the 1987 crash and the 2009 GFC plunge.

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Tasmea refutes media reports

[9:30 am] Tasmea has responded to an AFR article that noted co-founders Stephen Young and Mark Vartuli signed a 17-month escrow agreement that's set to run off on 29 September 2025. The two own 42% and 18.5% of the company, respectively, and the stock has rallied more than 120% since its debut.

Tasmea confirmed that its directors Stephen Young, Mark Vartuli and Jason Pryde have no intention of selling down their current equity holdings in the near future.

Source: AFR, Tasmea

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Citi's take on NRW

[9:23 am] Citi says NRW’s proposed acquisition of Fredon looks sound, aligned with structural themes in energy transition, electrification, automation and digital innovation. The deal is being done at an attractive 5.2x EBIT multiple (including earn-out and deferred cash), with a capital-light profile and expected to be 15–17% accretive.

• Strong near-term visibility with Fredon’s work-in-hand more than enough to cover the A$840m revenue NRW expects in FY26.

• Contribution from Fredon starting October could lift NRW’s FY26 topline to above A$4bn, or over A$4.2bn on a pro forma basis.

• Fredon is seen as a strategic fit, with NRW well positioned to scale its exposure, particularly in the resources sector.

Though Citi retained a Buy rating and kept its target price at $4.05.

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What kind of pullback will we see?

[9:09 am] There's already talk of a shallow pullback, which fits recent market themes of buy-the-dip, elevate retail interest and still-solid fundamentals. Here are some interesting data points that support the case for a moderate pullback.

• Deutsche Bank data shows mega-cap growth and tech positioning at just 42%, well below extremes.

• Goldman Sachs flagged institutional investors already de-risked in August, front-running negative seasonality, reducing pressure for further near-term selling.

• Sentiment indicators remain cautious, with the AAII bull-bear spread negative for four straight weeks, leaving room for contrarian support.

• Bond market volatility subdued, with the MOVE Index near its lowest since 2022, despite higher yields.

• The Fed is expected to cut rates in September, with market-implied probability of a 25 bp cut above 90%, supporting risk assets.

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S&P 500 Q3 earnings estimates moving higher

[8:58 am] Earnings guidance is a bright spot from the latest US earnings season, with Q3 S&P 500 bottom-up EPS estimates rising 0.5% to $67.66.

This is a rare positive revision trend:

• Historically, estimates are cut early in a quarter, with average declines of 1.0% over five years, 2.5% over ten years and 3.2% over twenty years.

• Q3 2025 marks the first time since Q2 2024 that aggregate S&P 500 EPS estimates have increased during the first two months of a quarter.

• Tech, Energy and Communications Services are leading the upward revisions in expected earnings.

• For the full year 2025, consensus calls for 10.6% earnings growth, with 13.4% growth expected in 2026.

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Plenty of risk-off drivers

[8:49 am] In addition to seasonality headwinds, there's a long list of reasons to be near-term bearish.

• US equities started September on a risk-off tone after four straight months of gains for the major indexes and five for the Nasdaq.

• Tariff uncertainty resurfaced after a US Court of Appeals upheld the ruling that Trump’s IEEPA tariffs are illegal, but kept them in place pending an appeal to the Supreme Court. Businesses face ongoing difficulty in setting prices amid policy ambiguity.

• Bond yields remain an overhang with pressure from global fiscal strains and political instability. France has been a focal point in Europe while US government shutdown risks are building into October.

• Concerns about Fed independence are gaining traction. Some strategists argue markets are underpricing the risk, with equities and bonds yet to reflect potential challenges to policy autonomy.

• AI sector scrutiny is intensifying around high capex requirements, weak monetisation, rising China competition and mixed earnings updates.

• Geopolitical risks remain elevated with attention on strengthening ties between China, Russia and India.

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The worst month for equities

[8:48 am] September has historically been the weakest month for the S&P 500 with an average return of -1.17% since 1928. The second half of the month is even worse with an average return of -1.38%, the lowest two-week stretch of the year, according to Goldman Sachs.

The VIX typically rises in September, a seasonal trend that could weigh further on risk sentiment given systematic strategies are already fully long and vulnerable to a volatility shock.

Government bonds also show negative seasonality. Over the past decade, global bonds with maturities over 10 years have posted a median September loss of around 2%, making it their weakest month of the year.

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Watch gold miners

[8:45 am] Gold prices pushed through US$3,500 with ease, closing at record levels of US$3,525 overnight. This drove a strong response from gold miners, with the VanEck Gold Miners ETF up 2.5% and a bellwether name like Newmont climbed another 1.9% (now on a nine-day win streak). This backdrop should drive a strong response for local gold miners.

Gold CFDs, daily chart (Source: TradingView)

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Stocks trading ex-dividend today

[8:42 am] Another long list of stocks trading ex-dividend today, including: Australian Ethical Investment (AEF) – $0.09, Downer Edi (DOW) – $0.141, Ebos Group Ltd (EBO) – $0.492, Evolution Mining Ltd (EVN) – $0.13, FENIX Resources (FEX) – $0.01, Hitech Group Australia (HIT) – $0.05, Humm Group (HUM) – $0.007, Integrated Research (IRI) – $0.02, Mercury NZ Ltd (MCY) – $0.131, Monadelphous Group (MND) – $0.39, Netwealth Group (NWL) – $0.21, Newmont Corporation (NEM) – $0.264, Origin Energy (ORG) – $0.30, Pro Medicus (PME) – $0.30, Seek Ltd (SEK) – $0.22

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Good morning!

[8:33 am] ASX 200 futures are down 37 pts (-0.41%) after another weak overnight session, with the S&P 500 down 0.69%.

If you’re new to the blog – catch up quick via today’s Morning Wrap.