ASX 200 Live Today - Wednesday, 2nd July
The S&P/ASX 200 is set to tick higher after US investors rotated out of Tech and into value, defensives and small caps.
Today’s ASX 200 Updates
Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Wednesday, July 2. We’re excited to be trialing this new format. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. Be sure to refresh manually for the latest updates — and let us know how we can make it even better.
ASX 200 closes at record highs
[16:15 pm] The S&P/ASX 200 rallied 56 pts (+0.66%), topping its 11 June record to mark its sixth record high of the year.
Sector participation was relatively broad, with ten out of 11 sectors closing higher.
The record move was fuelled by a bounce in Materials (+1.83%), which was trading around two-month lows just seven sessions ago. Notable gainers include South32 (+5.0%), Fortescue (+3.8%), Rio Tinto (+2.0%) and BHP (+1.7%).
Real Estate (+1.77%) and Telcos (+1.08%) trailed the resource sector. Names like Scentre Group (+2.7%) are breaking out to September 2024 highs, as growing rate cut expectations bolstered the real estate sector.
The tech sector (-0.73%) struggled, which shouldn't come as a surprise given the weak lead from Wall Street – where megacap tech stocks finished broadly lower and the Nasdaq slipped -0.82%.
CBA tips RBA to cut rates twice more in 2025
[15:26 pm] CBA is calling for two more rate cuts in Australia in its economic outlook for FY2026.
The bank expects cuts from the Reserve Bank in both July and August to take the cash rate to 3.35% at a neutral level.
It also tips house prices to keep climbing as demand continues to outstrip supply.
By Tom Richardson.
Qantas flags massive customer data breach
[15:11 pm] Shares in national carrier Qantas are down 2.3% today after it admitted that up to 6 million customers may have had some details stolen by online crooks.
Qantas said it's contacting customers to provide them necessary support and set-up a dedicated support line.
Shares have been on an absolute tear over the last 12 months and added 78%.
By Tom Richardson.
G8 shares sink on abuse allegations
[14.57 pm] Shares in childcare centre operator G8 Education are down 4% to $1.08 this afternoon as it deals with allegations a former staff member was involved in child abuse.
By Tom Richardson.
Significant uncertainty around Domino's Pizza: RBC Capital
[14:49 pm] Shares in Domino's Pizza slumped 15% this afternoon as its chief executive flagged plans to leave the business by December. The former market darling has bombed more than 80% since it hit more than $160 per share at the peak of the lockdown trade in September 2021.
"CEO Mark Van Dyck will step down effective 23 Dec 2025, having only been appointed in Nov last year," said RBC. "This is a continuation of a string of recent executive departures and reshuffling of sector heads.
"Recent departures include: ANZ CEO resignation, Europe and DPJ leadership reshuffles, and announced resignation of previous CFO in February. The announcement was not accompanied by a trading update despite significant uncertainty regarding DMP's current trading."
By Tom Richardson.
Macquarie tips industrials sector for highest EPS growth in new financial year
[14:32 pm] Broker Macquarie is tipping the industrials sector to post the most earnings per share growth in FY2026, versus banks, property trusts, and resources.
The broker forecasts industrials to average earnings growth of 7.2% this financial year, versus just 3.7% for the resources sector.
Banks are forecast to post negative EPS growth of 2.7%, after a positive return of 2.8% in FY 2025.
A positive return for the resources sector would end two horror years of returns of negative 18.5% in FY 2024 and negative 17.1% in FY 2025.
By Tom Richardson.
UBS calls Brent crude to US$65 a barrel in September quarter
Broker UBS has lifted its forecast for benchmark Brent Crude oil prices by $US3 a barrel to $US65 a barrel for the September quarter.
Brent crude prices for settlement in September fetched $US67.14 on Wednesday.
The broker's top tip in the energy sector is Santos, with a share price target of $7.90.
Santos is the subject of a takeover bid.
By Tom Richardson.
Morgan Stanley still bullish on Judo Bank
[13:57 pm] Business lenderJudo Bank is under-the-radar, but many brokers think it's a buy at a knocked down valuation including Morgan Stanley.
In a research note on Tuesday, the broker said investors should be overweight Judo Bank even after it jumped 9.8% in June.
"Following its 3Q25 trading update, JDO's share price fell ~20% in the month of May on concerns around near-term earnings drivers. During this time, we maintained our OW rating as we believe the investment case remains intact and the share price decline provides a buying opportunity," Morgan Stanley said.
Shares changed hands for $1.59 on Wednesday.
By Tom Richardson.
July rate cut not a done deal: Betashares
[13:48 pm] David Bassanese the chief economist at Betashares warns that today's retail sales data doesn't mean a July 9 rate cut from the Reserve Bank is as certain as the market expects.
"Although retail sales rose a weaker than expected 0.2% in May, it does not necessarily give the green light to the RBA to cut interest rates next week," said Mr Bassanese. "Anecdotal credit card data suggests there’s been a solid uplift in retail spending in recent months even though it has not yet been reflected on retail sales."
The one-month bank bill swap rate is currently 3.62% to suggest rates traders think a July rate cut from 3.85% is all but certain.
By Tom Richardson.
Perpetual and Platinum rally on UBS upgrade
[12:32 pm] Shares in Perpetual and Platinum Asset Management are trading around 8% and 4% higher, respectively, after UBS upgraded both stocks.
Platinum was upgraded to a Buy (from Neutral), with a $22.50 target price. The key takeaways include:
Oversold: Perpetual is considered oversold, trading at an 18% discount to UBS’s revised Sum-of-the-Parts (SoTP) valuation of $22.50 per share, up from $18.50. This upward revision reflects mark-to-market (MTM) adjustments driven by higher Funds Under Management (FUM), which benefits from rising market conditions.
Operational Strengths: PPT’s performance is bolstered by strong operating and financial leverage, meaning small increases in FUM or market performance significantly boost profitability. Additionally, effective cost control measures have enhanced margins, supporting the Buy rating.
Wealth Division Sale Potential: The potential sale of PPT’s Wealth division could generate significant proceeds, which are expected to be used to reduce gearing. This deleveraging would strengthen PPT’s balance sheet and improve earnings per share.
Perpetual was upgraded to Neutral (from Sell), with a 47 cent target price.
Reduced Outflow Risks: PTM’s exposure to institutional FUM is minimal, reducing the risk of significant outflows. This stability supports the Neutral upgrade, as the downside risk from client redemptions is limited.
Merger Dynamics with L1: The proposed merger with L1 Capital is a key factor. L1’s opposition to rolling over Platinum’s Capital Management into the Platinum International Fund could preserve PTM’s permanent capital. However, the merger terms are seen as more favorable to L1 shareholders than to PTM minority shareholders, creating some uncertainty for PTM investors.
Small caps making moves
[11:30 am] Here are the top small caps ($200m to $1bn market cap) winners and losers in early trade.
Ticker | Company | % Chg | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
WC8 | Wildcat Resources | 6.06% | $0.18 |
THL | Tourism Holdings Rentals | 5.94% | $2.05 |
BTL | Beetaloo Energy Australia | 5.13% | $0.21 |
CXO | Core Lithium Ltd | 5.00% | $0.11 |
PTM | Platinum Asset Management | 4.78% | $0.48 |
VGL | Vista Group International | 4.62% | $3.40 |
CVL | Civmec | 4.44% | $1.18 |
NZM | Nzme | 4.31% | $1.09 |
29M | 29Metals | 4.29% | $0.29 |
RAC | Race Oncology | 4.27% | $1.22 |
Ticker | Company | % Chg | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
BOC | Bougainville Copper | -9.32% | $0.54 |
MPW | Metal Powder Works | -7.74% | $1.43 |
STX | Strike Energy | -5.16% | $0.15 |
AMA | AMA Group | -4.76% | $0.10 |
LGL | Lynch Group | -4.57% | $1.67 |
PSQ | Pacific Smiles Group | -4.21% | $1.48 |
MEI | Meteoric Resources | -4.17% | $0.12 |
GEM | G8 Education | -4.00% | $1.08 |
TBR | Tribune Resources | -3.77% | $4.59 |
ELS | Elsight | -3.53% | $1.64 |
Trump sticks to July 9 tariff deadline
[11:28 am] President Trump confirmed no plans to extend the July 9, 2025, deadline for resuming higher tariffs, threatening to cut off talks and impose duties on nations, including Japan.
US stocks inched lower after Trump’s remarks, with the S&P 500 dropping 0.1% and the Cboe VIX Index rising above 16.8. The yen also gained against the dollar.
Trump criticised Japan for not accepting US rice exports and imbalanced auto trade, proposing tariffs of 30% or 35% due to the $68.5 billion trade deficit.
Source: Bloomberg
Top gainers and losers in early trade
[10:30 am] Here are the top S&P/ASX 200 gainers and losers in early trade.
Ticker | Company | % Chg | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
PPT | Perpetual | 10.80% | $20.52 |
SNZ | Summerset Group | 5.79% | $10.60 |
JHX | James Hardie | 5.69% | $43.09 |
AMC | Amcor Plc | 3.62% | $14.58 |
S32 | South32 | 3.54% | $3.08 |
AMP | Amp | 3.31% | $1.31 |
IFL | Insignia Financial | 3.01% | $3.94 |
REH | Reece | 2.87% | $14.70 |
BSL | Bluescope Steel | 2.69% | $23.49 |
FMG | Fortescue | 2.50% | $15.77 |
Ticker | Company | % Chg | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
DMP | Domino's Pizza | -17.63% | $16.59 |
ZIP | Zip Co | -5.61% | $3.03 |
MSB | Mesoblast | -4.89% | $1.75 |
DRO | Droneshield | -4.30% | $2.45 |
360 | Life360 | -4.21% | $32.18 |
GNC | Graincorp | -3.05% | $7.62 |
BOE | Boss Energy | -2.57% | $4.37 |
DGT | Digico Infrastructure Reit | -2.29% | $3.21 |
PDN | Paladin Energy | -2.26% | $7.78 |
VGN | Virgin Australia | -2.24% | $3.05 |
Domino's dives as another C-suite executive departs
[10:27 am] Domino's CEO Mark Van Dyck will step down in December 2025, having only been appointed in November last year. The stock is currently down 18%, trading at levels not seen since February 2014.
"This is a continuation of a string of recent executive departures and reshuffling of sector heads. Recent departures include: ANZ CEO resignation, Europe and DPJ leadership reshuffles, and announced resignation of previous CFO in February," noted RBC Capital Markets' analyst Michael Toner.
Spartan Resources block trade
[10:21 am] A 110.3 million share block trade crossed at $1.92 a piece, representing approximately 8.6% of the company.
Given the size of this transaction, the seller was likely one of only two major shareholders with holdings of this magnitude: UK-based private equity firm Tembo Capital (which held exactly 8.6%) or Ramelius Resources (19.9% stake).
UBS expects a July rate cut
[10:18 am] UBS now expects a 25bps cut in July 2025 (previously August 2025) based on market pricing and RBA’s reaction function.
The RBA's May 2025 meeting cut rates by 25 bps to 3.85%, with two dovish shifts:
Lower Neutral Rate: RBA’s SOMP revised nominal neutral cash rate to ~2.75% (from >3.5% in November 2024), with policy stance noted as “somewhat less restrictive” after 50bps cuts in February and May 2025.
Considered Larger Cut: RBA discussed a 50bps cut but chose 25bps, signaling openness to easing, per Governor Bullock’s press conference and meeting minutes.
The market is now pricing ~23bps cut for July, near full 25bps, and ~44bps by August 2025.
Helia dives 23% on contract update
[10:05 am] Helia shares tumbled 23% as the market opened. As we noted earlier:
Helia was notified by ING of its decision to pursue negotiations with an alternative lenders mortgage insurance (LMI) provider. This contract does not expire until 30 June 2026, but ING retains the right to terminate with just three months' notice.
The contract is significant as it represented approximately 17% of Helia's 2024 gross written premium.
James Hardie completes AZEK acquisition
[9:50 am] James Hardie successfully completed its acquisition of AZEK for $8.4 billion ($26.45 cash per share plus JHX shares). NYSE-listed James Hardie shares gained 4.4% overnight to close at a fresh three-month high.
When the acquisition was first announced in March, Macquarie's analysis highlighted both the strategic appeal and financial challenges of the deal:
Strategic Benefits: AZEK represents an inherently attractive asset with strong historical growth and significant penetration opportunities. The acquisition also addresses a key weakness in James Hardie's trim product offering while leveraging similar go-to-market strategies that should facilitate operational alignment.
Valuation Headwinds: However, Macquarie expressed concerns about the financial impact, noting that paying approximately 6x price-to-book for an asset with substantial intangible assets (52% of total assets) will likely dilute James Hardie's exceptional return profile. The firm warned that while AZEK may be strategically attractive, the valuation metrics could undermine James Hardie's unique investment thesis, particularly given the company's formidable 55% return on capital employed achieved last year.
Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: James Hardie (JHX)
Meeka pours first gold at Murchison
[9:38 am] Meeka has successfully transitioned from developer to producer, pouring first gold on schedule just 12 months after breaking ground at its Murchison Project in Western Australia.
The company says gold production continues to ramp-up smoothly, in-line with schedule. Meeka is seeking to hit 80,000 ounces of production per annum in the near-term.
Meeka has been one of the best performing gold names, up 340% in the last twelve months. The company recently raised $60 million (19-Jun) at 15 cents (~14% discount) to accelerate open pit operations and growth drilling.
Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Meeka (MEK)
PEXA CFO steps down
[9:23 am] Pexa has announced that Chief Financial Officer Scott Butterworth will depart the company on 31 July 2025 to pursue other opportunities. The company has already initiated a formal search process to identify his replacement.
In the interim, Deputy CFO Liz Warrell will assume the acting CFO role until a permanent appointment is made. Butterworth holds no shares in the company.
Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Pexa Group (PXA)
Helia may lose ING as client
[9:19 am] Helia has been notified by ING of its decision to pursue negotiations with an alternative lenders mortgage insurance (LMI) provider. While Helia's contract with ING doesn't expire until 30 June 2026, ING retains the right to terminate with just three months' notice.
The contract is significant as it represented approximately 17% of Helia's 2024 gross written premium.
"The financial impact of ceasing to write new business from ING will emerge gradually over time and the absence of new business from ING will likely increase the level of organic capital generation and scope for further capital management activity," the company said in a statement.
This follows a similar development in March, when Helia's largest client, Commonwealth Bank, began exclusive discussions with an alternative LMI provider. CBA's departure would be even more substantial, given it accounted for 44% of FY24 gross written premiums. While Helia shares initially plummeted 25.5% on that announcement, they recovered those losses over the following 2-3 months.
The combined risk of losing both ING and CBA puts more than 50% of Helia's gross written premium base at stake. However, the company maintains a strong capital position and has been actively returning capital to shareholders.
While the immediate impact involves the loss of future business growth, this may be partially offset by reduced capital requirements. As management has indicated, this situation actually expands opportunities for additional capital management initiatives.
Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Helia (HLI)
Alcoa completes sale of Ma'aden JV
[9:07 am] Alcoa sold its 25.1% ownership in the Ma'aden Joint Venture to Saudi Arabian Mining Company, expects to record a ~$780 million gain in 'other income' in the third quarter of 2025.
Alcoa now owns ~2% of Ma'aden’s outstanding shares.
Alcoa's NYSE-listed shares gained 2.3% overnight, closing at a fresh three-month high.
Company page: Alcoa (AAI)
Powell reiterates same message at Sintra conference
[9:04 am] Fed Chair Powell spoke at the ECB's annual central-bank conference in Sintra, Portugal last night, reiterating the same rhetoric as prior speeches/presentations:
US economy is in a good position; inflation behaving as expected, absent tariffs.
Current Fed policy is modestly restrictive.
Majority of Fed policymakers expect to cut rates at some point in the remaining four meetings of 2025.
No meeting, including July, is off the table for a rate cut but decisions depend on evolving data.
Powell declined to comment on recent political criticism.
Powell gave no indication about staying on as Fed governor after his chair term ends in May 2026.
US job openings unexpectedly jump
[9:01 am] US May JOLTS job openings unexpectedly jumped by 374,000 to 7.77 million, the highest level since November 2024.
The data was well-ahead of 7.3 million consensus, pointing to a resilient labour market despite trade and broader economic uncertainty.
The spike in job openings was largely driven by accommodation and food services (+314,000) and finance/insurance (+91,000).
US manufacturing remains in contraction
[8:55 am] US June ISM Manufacturing printed 49.0 vs. 49.1 consensus but up from 48.5 in May. This marks the fourth consecutive month of contraction (below 50).
Some of the key takeaways from the report include:
New orders index fell by the most in three months and down for a fifth consecutive month.
Prices paid index remained in expansion territory, up to 68.7 vs. 69.4 in the previous month.
Order backlog index fell the most in a year to 44.3, marking 33 straight months of contraction.
Respondents flagged uncertainty, confusion and geopolitical volatility.
What's driving stocks?
[8:50 am] Very interesting overnight session, where the S&P 500 (-0.11%) and Nasdaq (-0.82%) slipped but the Russell 2000 (+0.94%) and Dow (+0.91%) finished higher.
Most of the weakness was concentrated around Mag-7, with notable weakness from Tesla (-5.3%), Broadcom (-3.9%), Nvidia (-2.9%) and Meta (-2.5%).
Equal-weight S&P 500 rallied 1.17%, outperforming the official benchmark by 128 bps.
A relatively choppy start to the third quarter, with the S&P 500 trading at the most overbought levels since Jul-24 and driving flows out of tech and into defensives, value and small caps.
Senate passed Trump's 'One Big Beautiful Bill', with VP Vance's vote breaking the 50-50 tie.
Trade talks remain somewhat muted, with the Financial Times reporting that the White House may be seeking phased deals and agreements in principle to hit the 9 July deadline.
Good morning!
[8:30 am] S&P/ASX 200 futures are up 18pts (+0.21%), this follows a relatively lacklustre start to the financial year on Tuesday, where the market finished flat despite gaining 0.39% in the first hour of trade.
If you’re new to the blog – catch up quick via today’s Morning Wrap.
