ASX 200 Live Today - Wednesday, 21st May

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Wednesday, May 21. We’re excited to be trialing this new format. Be sure to refresh manually for the latest updates — and let us know how we can make it even better.

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ASX 200 at three-month highs

[4:20 pm] The S&P/ASX 200 finished 0.52% higher, off session highs of 0.95%. Breadth was a little mixed, with only 100 constituents (50%) closing higher.

Large cap stocks that led to the downside include lithium miners (Liontown -7.7%), retailers (ARB Corp -3.8%, Lovisa -2.8%), insurers (Suncorp -1.8%) and industrials (Transurban -1.0%, SGH -0.9%, Brambles -0.6%).

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Stocks moving on unusual volume

[3:00 pm] These are the S&P/ASX 200 stocks experiencing unusual volume, as a % of their 20-day average volumes.

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Webjet Group slips on soft earnings

[2:30 pm] Webjet Group trading 1.1% lower after soft full-year results and guidance. The key numbers noted this morning include:

• Bookings down 7% to 1.53 million

• Total transaction volume down 6% to $1.5bn vs. $1.53bn ests (1.9% miss)

• Revenue down 3% to $139.76m vs. $143.5m ests (2.6% miss)

• Underlying net profit after tax up 18% to $20.9m vs. $21.3m ests (1.8% miss)

The company also said it expects FY26 underlying EBITDA to be broadly in-line with FY25, flagging potentially soft booking trends.

Food for thought: Webjet Group has seen significant changes in its substantial shareholdings recently, with Helloworld increasing its stake to approximately 10% and BGH Capital pursuing a controlling interest at 80 cents per share. With a potential takeover bid looming, a soft financial result from Webjet may not be a major concern—lower earnings could drive the share price down, making the company a more attractive target for suitors.

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Top gainers and losers at noon

[12:30 pm] Here are the S&P/ASX 200 stocks making the biggest gains and declines at noon.

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Nufarm obliterated, plus earnings call highlights

[12:15 am] Nufarm's 1H25 earnings missed consensus expectations alongside a bearish guidance. But did you expect the stock to fall as much as 28%?

Here are the key numbers:

• Revenue up 3% to $1.81bn vs. $1.83bn ests (1.1% miss)

• Underlying EBITDA down 6% to $206m vs. $239.3m ests (13.9% miss)

• Underlying NPAT down 24% to $38m (unclear if comparable to adjusted NPAT estimate of $71.4m)

• Net debt up 12% to $1.36bn vs. $1.35bn ests (0.7% miss)

• Flagged headwinds in the second half including dry conditions and weak fish oil prices

In the company's earnings call, management noted:

• Seed technology development needs increased funding to fuel growth, driving exploration of external capital sources

• Long-term omega-3 demand remains robust despite short-term oversupply, with technology positioned as a sustainable supply solution

• Dry conditions continue to challenge Australian operations, while APAC performance is expected to remain consistent with last year’s second half results

• North American markets are set for a stronger second half, supported by low channel inventories and a delayed season boosting sales volumes

• Despite higher volumes, North American margins are unlikely to see significant improvement in H2.

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Catapult rallies to record highs

[11:45 am] Catapult shares opened 6.5% higher, currently up 10.2% to all-time highs of $4.75 after reporting a robust FY25 result. As the blog noted earlier:

• Revenue up 16.5% to $116.5m vs. $116.8m ests (0.2% miss)

• Gross margin down 10 bps to 81% vs. 79.7% ests (13 bp beat)

• Net loss narrowed to -$8.8m vs. -$16.7m a year ago

• Management EBITDA of $14.8m vs. $13.3m ests (11.2% beat)

• Management EBITDA margin almost tripled to 12.7% (FY24: 4.2%) vs. 11.5% ests (12 bp beat)

• ACV up 18% to $101.2m vs. $103.1m ests (1.8% miss)

Margins stood out as a key metric, underscoring the business's scalability and strong free cash flow momentum.

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Technology One extends gains

[11:00 am] Technology One is up another 3.8% after a better-than-expected 1H25 result sent the stock soaring 11% on Tuesday. The stock received a flurry of target price upgrades this morning. Though most analysts remain Neutral rated due to valuation.

• Macquarie raises target to $34.40 from $31.00, maintaining neutral, citing strong pipeline validation but limited valuation upside

• Jefferies raises target to $44.00 from $35.00, maintaining buy, driven by FY25 guidance uplift and UK momentum

• E&P upgrades to positive from neutral, raises target to $45.00 from $31.52, highlighting UK contract wins and competitive edge

• JPMorgan raises target to $33.50 from $27.00, maintaining neutral, noting UK traction and conservative profit guidance

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Top ASX 200 gainers

[10:40 am] Here are the top S&P/ASX 200 gainers in early trade. Besides gold miners, Seek is rallying off of a guidance upgrade (towards the top end of prior range) and Resmed is bouncing after yesterday's selloff (driven by a phase III trial by Apnimed for an oral pill for obstructive sleep apnoea).

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Top ASX 200 losers

[10:40 am] Here are the top S&P/ASX 200 losers in early trade.

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Gold stocks broadly higher

[10:20 am] Gold miners are back near recent highs after spot prices rallied 1.87% overnight to US$3,295 an ounce.

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Seek upgrades FY25 guidance to top half of prior range

[9:55 am] Seek's investor presentation says FY25 revenue and earnings will "likely be in the top half of guidance ranges," due to:

• In ANZ, the recent upgrade of our ad tiers will support low double digit yield growth in FY25 vs pcp. The decline in job ad volumes has continued to stabilise in recent months and this trend is expected to continue

• Asia revenue will be in line with pcp. This includes the early impacts of the freemium launch in Singapore, which has progressed as planned

• Interest costs will be lower than original guidance following the receipt of funds from the SEEK Growth Fund’s partial sell down of Employment Hero

The FY25 guidance includes:

• Revenue: Top half of $1.06–1.10bn vs. $1.08bn ests (top half ~$1.09bn implies a 0.9% beat)

• EBITDA: Top half of $440–470m vs. $448.5m ests (top half ~$462.5m implies 3.1% beat)

• Adjusted Profit: Top half of $135–160

• Total Expenditure: $750–770 million, unchanged from prior guidance

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Seek (SEK)

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Westpac preparing ~1,5000 job cuts

[9:45 am • AFR ] Westpac is preparing to cut over 1,500 jobs as its new CEO pushes to meet ambitious cost reduction targets.

The article notes that Chief Executive Anthony Miller is asking managers how they will reduce their workforce by ~5% across most teams over the next few months.

Source: AFR

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Gold Fields receives FIRB approval

[9:45 am] Gold Fields has received Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB) approval for its acquisition of Gold Road.

Gold Road closed at $3.26 on Tuesday, with the takeover offering total cash consideration of $3.40 cash per share.

The Scheme remains subject to several conditions, including an independent expert's ongoing determination that it is in the best interests of Gold Road shareholders, approval by Gold Road shareholders, Court approval, and other standard conditions.

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Webjet Group reports 'solid' FY25 result

[9:40 am] Webjet Group reported its first full-year earnings since its demerger from Web Travel Group on 30 September 2024. Here are the key numbers:

• Bookings down 7% to 1.53 million

• Total transaction volume down 6% to $1.5bn vs. $1.53bn ests (1.9% miss)

• Revenue down 3% to $139.76m vs. $143.5m ests (2.6% miss)

• Underlying net profit after tax up 18% to $20.9m vs. $21.3m ests (1.8% miss)

In terms of outlook commentary, the company noted:

• FY26 underlying EBITDA to be broadly in-line with FY25

• Dividends are anticipated to commence in FY26

• The Board initially planned to announce an on-market share buyback

• Following the recent non-binding indication of interest from BGH Capital, which was rejected, the Board has decided to postpone all capital management initiatives

• Significant progress is being made toward FY30 strategic priorities

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Webjet Group (WJL)

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Nufarm 1H25 earnings tumble

[9:30 am] Nufarm reported a relatively soft 1H25 result and flagged potential headwinds in the second half. Here are the key numbers (vs. Macquarie (Feb-25) ests):

• Revenue up 3% to $1.81bn vs. $1.83bn ests (1.1% miss)

• Underlying EBITDA down 6% to $206m vs. $239.3m ests (13.9% miss)

• Underlying NPAT down 24% to $38m (unclear if comparable to adjusted NPAT estimate of $71.4m)

• Net debt up 12% to $1.36bn vs. $1.35bn ests (0.7% miss)

• Leverage at 4.5x

The company warned that a continuation of dry conditions in Australia could impact second half earnings. This may not come as a surprise as Macquarie expects 2H25 EBITDA to fall sharply to $134.7m.

The outlook commentary also noted weak fish oil prices, which may see the Seed Technologies division record an EBITDA loss of $20 million.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Nufarm (NUF)

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Catapult reports record FY25 cash flow, losses narrow

[9:20 am] Sports tech company Catapult reported a record set of numbers while narrowing losses to -$8.8 million, down from a -$16.7 million a year ago. (Note: All figures below are in US dollars)

• Revenue up 16.5% to $116.5m vs. $116.8m ests (0.2% miss)

• Gross margin down 10 bps to 81% vs. 79.7% ests (13 bp beat)

• Management EBITDA of $14.8m vs. $13.3m ests (11.2% beat)

• Management EBITDA margin almost tripled to 12.7% (FY24: 4.2%) vs. 11.5% ests (12 bp beat)

• ACV up 18% to $101.2m vs. $103.1m ests (1.8% miss)

"As we enter FY26, we expect strong ACV growth, low churn, continued improvement in our cost margins towards our targets, and higher free cash flow – clear signs that our operating model is scaling with discipline and aligned to the Rule of 40," said CEO Will Lopes.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Catapult (CAT)

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James Hardie meets FY25 guidance

[9:15 am] James Hardie delivered a relatively in-line FY25 result, with most metrics cycling record results in FY24.

• Net sales down 1% to $3.9bn vs. UBS estimates of $3.89bn (0.2% beat)

• Adjusted net income down 9% to $644m vs. UBSe $646m (0.3% miss)

• Adjusted diluted EPS down 7% to $1.49, in-line with UBSe

The company also provided guidance for FY26, including:

• North America Net Sales Growth: Up low single-digits

• North America EBITDA Margin: ~35.0%

• Total Adjusted EBITDA Growth: Up low single-digits

• Free Cash Flow: At least $500 million, up +30%

• Total Capital Expenditures: ~$325 million

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: James Hardie (JHX)

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SGH reaffirms guidance

[9:05 am] SGH reiterated its FY25 guidance in its investor day presentation. The two main takeaways from the outlook commentary include:

• Targeting deleverage of SGH balance sheet to 2.0x adjusted ND/EBITDA

• Reiteration of SGH guidance of“High single-digit EBIT growth expected in FY25"

Earlier this week, Macquarie said "we do see room to outperform this guide, but would not expect any update this week." The analysts also believe SGH is "preparing for its next acquisitive move" and see a few opportunities in the local industrials space that could "fit neatly'.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: SGH (SGH)

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More US dollar weakness

[9:00 am] The US Dollar Index has slipped 0.95% in the last two sessions to 100.0, not far from recent lows of 97.9. Most analysts expect the dollar to trend lower amid fiscal and trade updates.

• Citi: Expects further US dollar weakness post-G7 meetings as the White House pursues tariff reduction deals, with Treasury Secretary Bessent likely to encourage currency appreciation in trading partners like Japan and China, potentially involving BoJ policy in US-Japan trade talks, while the dollar and fiscal situation gain increasing focus.

• Deutsche Bank: Argues that a weakening dollar alongside rising yields signals diminishing market appetite for funding US deficits, pointing to emerging financial stability risks driven by these dynamics.

• Bank of America: Warns that a fiscal package in Congress could widen the deficit, risking a bond-buyer strike as increased Treasury supply may drive higher borrowing rates and further weaken the dollar, potentially outweighing the growth benefits of the legislation.

• Apollo: Notes a decline in indirect bidding at recent 30-year Treasury auctions, suggesting reduced foreign demand for Treasuries, which could undermine a key source of dollar support.

• HSBC: Sees the US Dollar Index (DXY) at 100 as a mean-reverting level, suggesting no new trend will emerge without significant shifts in trade policy.

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Top stories from Livewire

Betashares economist says RBA could slash rates to 2% if US enters recession | The Reserve Bank's unexpected 25 basis point rate cut to 3.85%, coupled with a dovish stance citing geopolitical uncertainties, led to a decline in the Australian dollar and borrowing rates, while sparking concerns among economists about potential inflation resurgence. Betashares' David Bassanese predicts further cuts to 3.35% in 2025, but warns that a US recession could push rates as low as 2%.

Why now might be the time for copper | Copper prices have shown unexpected resilience despite global economic slowdown fears, driven by US manufacturers front-loading imports to hedge against potential tariffs and robust Chinese demand signaled by sharp inventory drawdowns at the Shanghai Futures Exchange. Long-term structural demand from electrification, AI, and renewable energy continues to bolster copper’s investment appeal, potentially creating attractive entry points for investors amid short-term volatility.

Why gold is beating stocks at their own game | The initial optimism for US economic exceptionalism in 2025 has been overshadowed by growing investor concerns over a potential stagflationary environment, driven by Trump's trade war and rising inflation expectations, leading to increased market volatility and a bearish outlook in the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey. With US equities still richly valued and bonds losing their diversification edge, gold emerges as a compelling safe-haven asset, historically delivering positive returns during periods of systemic risk and economic downturns.

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What's driving stocks?

[8:40 am] A relatively quiet overnight session, with no major directional drivers or catalysts.

• No new trade deal developments. India reportedly discussing a three-tranche trade deal with the US, Japan reiterated no rush to secure a deal.

• Fedspeak continues to highlight patience despite the market still pricing in ~50 bps of rate cuts by year end

• RBA and China both cut rates yesterday, though the moves were widely expected

• Goldman Sachs estimates ~US$5bn in corporate buybacks per day, supporting markets, while systematic strategies are re-leveraging (though at a slower pace)

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Good morning!

[8:40 am] S&P/ASX 200 futures are up 52pts (+0.62%) despite a relatively weak lead from Wall Street.

If you’re new to the blog – catch up quick via today’s Morning Wrap.