ASX 200 Live Today - Wednesday, 19th November

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Wednesday, November 19. We’re excited to trial this new format. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. Today's live blog will wrap up at 2:00 pm AEDT. Be sure to refresh manually for the latest updates — and let us know how we can make it even better.

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ASX 200 slight lower, Nvidia earnings tonight

[2:20 pm] Not a whole lot to say, the ASX 200 is currently down 0.16%, sitting around session lows. Seeing some strength return to Materials (+1.25%) and Energy (+0.66%), while Financials (-1.29%) continue to sell off into no man's land.

Nvidia earnings will be the talk of the town tonight (released after market close). Q3 estimates are at US$55.2 billion (which marks a 1,000% increase since its Q3 just three years ago). The stock is expected to experience a post-earnings swing of 7.1%, according to ORATS.

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CBA: Not a bounce in sight

[2:15 pm] CBA is down another 1.7% today, currently sitting around intraday lows. The stock has dipped 14% since its 1Q26 result on Tuesday, 11 November.

CBA's year-to-date gain peaked at 27% in late June, and its now just ... 1.2% (I guess its rather extraordinary to see the ASX still trade within 8% of all-time highs despite CBA unraveling such a large gain).

CBA daily price chart (Source: TradingView)

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Lithium stocks continue to trend higher

[1:45 pm] Lithium might be one of the most overbought sectors right now, and for good reason. Over the past week, we've seen:

• China's royalty reform increases lithium royalties from 2-3% to 7% of sales revenue, lifting the domestic cost floor and favouring established spodumene producers

• MinRes sells 30% stake to POSCO for US$765m (~A$1.2bn), valuing its lithium business at ~45% above consensus NAV and validating the sector's recovery with the news sending MinRes up 10.8%

• Rio Tinto scales back Jadar by placing its $2.4bn Serbian lithium project on care and maintenance, reinforcing supply discipline and removing a significant future supply source from the market

Most names were relatively unphased by the market's 1.9% dip on Tuesday, and continue to trend higher today.

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Sentiment at extreme levels

[1:01 pm] CNN's Fear & Greed Index hit went as low as 9 overnight. This level "Extreme Fear" sentiment was last seen during the April 2025 bottom.

Source: CNN Fear & Greed Index

SubuTrade offers an interesting table as to how the S&P 500 performs after the index falls to 9.

Source: SubuTrade.com

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ASX 200 still flat

[12:54 pm] The ASX 200 is still trading around breakeven, very narrow range today (session low of -0.02% and high of 0.23%). Pretty much an even split of constituents trading higher and lower. Banks are broadly lower, with CBA (-1.20%) and Macquarie (-1.81%) hovering around intraday lows. Offsetting the financials weakness is a small bounce from Tech (+0.91%) and Materials (+1.29%). Overall, very cautious price action.

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Analysts' take on ALS

[12:21 pm] ALS delivered a 1H25 result on Tuesday that was slightly ahead of market expectations, largely driven by strong sample volumes and pricing from its Commodities division. The stock briefly rallied 2.2% but finished the session down 2.8%. This follows a massive 40% year-to-date rally, where the stock is now trading around record levels and a price-to-earnings of ~40x.

• Bell Potter: Maintains Buy, raises target from $23.50 to $25.00. Commodities revenue and Life Sciences margin exceeded expectations, outlook upgraded, M&A optionality adds potential earnings upside.

• RBC Capital Markets: Maintains Sector Perform, raises target from $20.75 to $22.25. Earnings beat offset by cost reclassification headwind, positive on volume and margin trends in Commodities, valuation seen as full despite earnings momentum.

• UBS: Maintains Buy, target $26.00. Exploration recovery in early stage, Commodities volumes supported by macro trends, guidance slightly conservative on margins, long-term EPS growth underpinned by exploration upswing.

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Droneshield: It keeps getting worse

[12:18 pm] Didn't see this announcement (marked as non-price sensitive) this morning. Droneshield announced the resignation of its US CEO, Matt McCrann, effectively immediately. This is not a good look after CEO Oleg Vornik and two other non-executive directors sold all their shares last week (causing the share price to crash 31.4% on Thursday, 13 November).

Droneshield is currently down 11.8% and on-track to close at a fresh five-month low.

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Nufarm rallies on in-line results

[12:02 pm] The battered Nufarm (down 40% YTD as of yesterday) is trading sharply higher after its FY25 result largely met market expectations. As noted earlier:

• Revenue up 2.9% to $3.44bn vs. $3.48bn ests (1.1% miss)

• Underlying EBITDA down 3% to $302.5m vs. $295.8m ests (2.3% beat)

• Statutory net loss of -$165.3m, including $142.4m of non-cash material items resulting from review of Seed Technologies business

Guidance commentary:

• Positioned for underlying EBITDA growth and positive cash generation in FY26 (vs. ests of ~29% underlying EBITDA growth)

• Continued growth from crop protection division, though moderating growth vs. the 18% achieved in FY25

Nufarm daily price chart (Source: TradingView)

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Analysts' take on Technology One

[11:06 am] Technology One delivered an FY25 result that was relatively in-line with expectations, though a slowdown in net revenue retention to 115% and slight ARR miss triggered a sharp 17.2% selloff.

• JPMorgan: Upgrades to Overweight, lowers target from $38.50 to $35.00. UK strength impressed, NRR softness seen as temporary, AI product rollout expected to drive FY26 growth.

• Jarden: Downgrades to Overweight, lowers target from $44.82 to $32.00. Notes high valuation after recut forecasts, growth story anchored in UK and AI, still expects $1bn ARR by FY30E.

• Morgan Stanley: Upgrades to Overweight, raises target from $29.30 to $36.50. Pullback creates compelling entry for quality tech, confident in UK-led growth strategy, AI rollout and valuation attractive versus global peers.

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Top gainers and losers

[10:30 am] Rare earths and gold stocks are trading higher while tech stocks are struggling to bounce.

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ASX 200 opens flat

[10:13 am] ASX 200 pretty much flat, a rather cautious open following yesterday's selloff. At a glance, CBA (-1.0%) and Macquarie (-2.5%) continue to trend lower, both stocks are on four-day losing streaks. Tech stocks are also broadly lower, notably Catapult (-3.6%), Life360 (-2.7%), Xero (-0.6%) and Wisetech (-0.3%). Though Technology One is bouncing 2.3% after yesterday's crippling 17% selloff. Resource sector relatively flat, with BHP (+0.6%), Rio (-0.5%), Fortescue (-0.5%) and Woodside (+1.1%) relatively choppy. Overall, very cautious open, with plenty of high-profile and crowded names continuing to unravel.

ASX 200 daily chart (Source: TradingView)

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Regal's Charlie Aitken says cautiously buy the dip

[9:55 am] Some absolute banger commentary from Regal's Charlie Aitken about yesterday's selloff.

"The entire ASX Top 20 was in the red. Not rotation, just a sea of red. That my friends, is the “clearance sale” of forced selling and deleveraging ... exactly what also occurred on April 6th. A classic, short, sharp bull equity market correction," he wrote in a note this morning.

"Look at BHP for example. Down -3.7% yesterday despite an unchanged iron ore price (US$105/t) ... literally nothing changed for BHP’s profitability or outlook yesterday, but because it’s an Asian facing cyclical it was dumped in line with weakness in Asian equity indices. BHP is the first ASX Top 20 stock I’d look at this morning."

He describes the price action as "one giant margin call which has flushed out excesses in crowded positioning in domestic equities," and views the aftermath as a "reset and an opportunity for investors to selectively and sensibly deploy capital."

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Seek says YTD job ad volumes largely in-line with expectations

[9:43 am] Seek says year-to-date job ad volumes across APAC are largely in-line with its original guidance (provided at the FY25 result in August).

The company reaffirmed its FY26 guidance ranges, including:

• Revenue of $1.15-1.25bn (10% year-on-year growth at the midpoint)

• Total expenditure $810-840m

• EBITDA $510-55m (15% growth at the midpoint)

• Adjusted profit of $190-220m (32% growth at the midpoint)

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Cyclopharm on track to deliver record revenue year

[9:40 am] A pretty interesting battered biotech stock. Cyclopharm says its on track to deliver another record year of double digit growth, speaking at a Bell Potter Healthcare conference. Though the share price has been smashed year-to-date, down 58%.

The company's Technegas (carbon “gas” used in functional ventilation imaging) product as FDA approved in October 2023.

Cyclopharm reported global revenue growth of 58% to $7.6 million in the first-half of 2025, with gross margin up 20% to $8.26 million.

Company page: Cyclopharm (CYC)

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Medibank reaffirms FY26 guidance at AGM

[9:35 am] Medibank Private reaffirmed its FY26 claims per policy unit growth outlook of 2.6% to 2.9% at its AGM.

The company said its non-resident business continues to perform well with sustained customer growth in Q1, expects to complete the acquisition of Better Medical by early 2026, and is continuing to explore further opportunities in target segments.

Company page: Medibank (MPL)

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Nufarm FY25 results

[9:30 am] Nufarm reported a relatively in-line FY25 result, though the stock has been battered year-to-date (-39.5%) following a series of earnings downgrades and write-downs relating to its seed technology business.

• Revenue up 2.9% to $3.44bn vs. $3.48bn ests (1.1% miss)

• Underlying EBITDA down 3% to $302.5m vs. $295.8m ests (2.3% beat)

• Statutory net loss of -$165.3m, including $142.4m of non-cash material items resulting from review of Seed Technologies business

Guidance commentary:

• Positioned for underlying EBITDA growth and positive cash generation in FY26 (vs. ests of ~29% underlying EBITDA growth)

• Continued growth from crop protection division, though moderating growth vs. the 18% achieved in FY25

Company page: Nufarm (NUF)

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Webjet receives non-binding offer from Helloworld

[9:27 am] Webjet has received a non-binding cash offer of 90 cents per share from Helloworld Travel. This represents an 18.4% premium vs. yesterday's close of 76 cents.

The proposed price will not be reduced by the 2 cents per share dividend announced with Webjet’s 1H26 results. The Webjet board has agreed to allow Helloworld to conduct due diligence on the company.

The sequence of events is pretty wild considering Webjet shares dipped 17% on Thursday, 13 November after reporting preliminary 1H26 results that broadly missed market expectations.

• Revenue down 1% to $67.9m vs. $73.4m ests (7.5% miss)

• Underlying EBITDA down 9% to $14.4m vs. $16.6m ests (13.3% miss)

• Underlying NPAT up 16% to $7.8m vs. $8.1m ests (3.7% miss)

• FY26 underlying EBITDA guidance of $30-32m vs. $38.4m ests (19% miss)

Company page: Webjet (WJL)

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Can Nvidia save the market?

[9:20 am] Nvidia reports its Q3 results after US market close on Thursday, with analysts expecting another earnings beat and guidance upgrade.

• Hyperscaler capex forecast to surge to ~$112bn, up ~80% year-on-year, supporting strong AI demand.

• $500bn Blackwell and Rubin revenue backlog through 2026

• Key debates on GM pressure from higher memory costs, capacity constraints, China exposure, competition, customer concentration, and OpenAI deployment timing.

• Market cautious as the stock is down ~7% since GTC, reflecting AI scepticism and Softbank stake sale despite attractive valuation.

Who knows how Nvidia will trade ... could we see a beat/raise into:

• A gap up and trend higher

• A gap up and fade

• A gap down and trend lower (thinking about recent local tech results like TNE)

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Risk-off tilt continues

[9:16 am] Risk sentiment remained fragile overnight as key indices break technical levels and multiple thematic headwinds weigh.

• S&P 500 and Nasdaq undercut the 50-day moving averages for first time in 138 sessions, signalling technical deterioration.

• Market focus on stretched systematic longs and trigger breaches, amplifying momentum unwind.

• Weakness reinforced by soft ADP payrolls, Home Depot miss, Amazon bond issuance, rising JGB yields, and China AI developments.

• Broader November drawdown driven by AI scepticism, hawkish Fed signals, retail caution, labour market softening, and repo stress.

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James Hardie Q2 earnings call highlights

[9:13 am] James Hardie shares rallied 9.8% on Tuesday after the company reported a solid second quarter result and upgraded its FY26 guidance.

• Net sales up 34% to $1.29bn vs. $1.28bn ests (0.8% beat)

• Adjusted EBITDA up 25% to $329.5m vs. $320.5m ests (2.8% beat)

• Adjusted net income down 2% to $154.0m vs. $149.5m ests (3.0% beat)

• Adjusted EPS of 26 cents vs. 26-27 cent guidance (in-line)

• FY26 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $1.20-1.25bn vs. prior $1.05-1.15bn and $1.17bn ests. This represents an upgrade of 11% vs. prior estimates and 4.7% above consensus.

A few key takeaways from its earnings call.

• Siding & Trim: Market weakness in Southern single-family new construction less severe than expected, with volumes down high-single digits in H2 FY26, but margins set to improve via cost initiatives and synergies.

• Decking & Rail: Strategy unchanged, with consistent execution and marketing to drive outperformance, with Advanced Rail launch expanding dealer offerings and TimberTech brand leverage.

• ColorPlus & Innovation: Pilot programs cut on-the-wall costs, boosting volume nearly 20%, with long-term plans to double sales.

• Cost and Margins: Cost synergy capture is ahead of schedule and most G and A targets have been met. Pricing is expected to offset mid-single-digit raw material inflation and sequential margin recovery is anticipated in Deck, Rail and Accessories.

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Home Depot dips 6pc on poor earnings

[8:50 am] Home Depot missed Q3 comps and EPS expectations and trimmed its full year guidance amid ongoing consumer caution. The stock finished the overnight session down 6.0% to the lowest since April, now down 21% from its 17-Sep high. Not a good look for a high-profile consumer stock.

• Q3 same-store sales rose 0.2%, vs consensus of 1.4%, with US comps at just 0.1%.

• Revenue slightly missed expectations and EPS came in just over 2.5% below forecasts.

• FY guidance cut, with comps now “slightly positive” (from +1%) and EPS down ~3%.

• Management cited weaker-than-expected 2H demand, ongoing consumer caution, and housing pressure.

• Early 2026 could see home improvement demand normalise

Home Depot daily price chart (Source: TradingView)

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BofA's latest fund manager survey

[8:34 am] BofA’s latest Global Fund Manager Survey painted a mixed but broadly constructive picture of investor positioning and expectations.

• FMS sentiment hit its highest level since February, equity allocation reached a nine month high, cash levels edged down to 3.7%, and the Bull & Bear Indicator stayed at 6.3.

• Discretionary exposure was cut by the most since 2005 and tech exposure saw its biggest drop in eight months.

• Long Mag 7 replaced gold as the most crowded trade and the AI bubble was again named the biggest tail risk at 45%.

• A net 20% of investors said companies are over-investing, with concerns centred on the AI capex boom, although 53% said AI is already lifting productivity.

• For 2026, 42% expect international equities to outperform compared to 22% for US equities, and 43% see the S&P 500 finishing the year in the 7000 to 7500 range.

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Housekeeping update

[8:24 am] Hi there! Kerry here (I’m always around but speaking a bit more directly here).

I'll be on leave for the next two weeks (taking the baby on a Disney cruise, then driving around New Zealand). While I’m away, a few Livewire colleagues will be taking over the blog. With resourcing a bit tight (Market Index is currently hiring a third content team member to join Carl and me), the blog will probably wrap up a little earlier each day.

I’ve really enjoyed running this blog, and I’d love any feedback you’re willing to share. There’s a link above, but feel free to send thoughts directly as well ([email protected]).

In my view, the blog goes pretty hard from 8:30 am till market open, and highlights some pretty good stuff (e.g. useful data points, consensus numbers, percentage beats or misses etc). After ~11 am, it does fall away a bit, and that’s an area I think we can improve. We’re also missing a refresh or notification function, which doesn’t make for the best user experience, but that should hopefully be coming soon.

Thanks for your support. I’ll be around today, and then I’ll see you in two weeks.

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Good morning!

[8:10 am] ASX 200 futures are down 10pts (-0.11%) as of 8:30 am AEDT.

• Major US benchmarks lower but off worst levels (e.g. S&P 500 down -0.83% vs. session low of -1.47%)

• Solid breadth, with the Equal-weight S&P 500 (+0.01%) outperforming the cap-weighted benchmark by 84 bps

• Discretionary (-2.50%) and Tech (-1.68%) sharply lower, but sectors like Energy (+0.61%), Healthcare (+0.54%), Real Estate (+0.36%) bounced

• Nvidia to report quarterly results tomorrow morning, analysts already expecting a big beat and guidance upgrade, while options market pricing in a ~7% share price move

If you’re new to the blog – catch up quick via today’s Morning Wrap (still being written).