ASX 200 Live Today - Wednesday, 17th June

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Wednesday, June 18. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. We'll be wrapping the blog up around 2:00 pm AEST. Let us know how we can make it even better.

Sims upgrades FY26 EBIT guidance on stronger metals and data centre demand

[9:19 am] Sims has lifted FY26 Underlying EBIT guidance to $420-435 million from $350-400 million, with North American metals leading the upgrade and Sims Lifecycle Services continuing to benefit from data centre tailwinds.

• FY26 Underlying EBIT now expected at $420-435m vs prior $350-400m guidance (17% upgrade at midpoint)

• North American Metal businesses (NAM and SA Recycling) expected to deliver a significant increase in 2H earnings, driven by continued non-ferrous strength and improved ferrous conditions

• ANZ ferrous market conditions remain subdued due to ongoing elevated Chinese steel exports, despite recent improvement in Asian ferrous prices

• Sims Lifecycle Services FY26 Underlying EBIT now expected at $170-175m, benefiting from structural growth in the global data centre ecosystem

A very material earnings upgrade, well-above prior guidance and $354 million consensus (May-26). However, the stock has ripped 63.7% year-to-date, with some analysts concerned about the durability of Lifecycle Services earnings.

Company page: Sims (SGM)

Analysts slash Karoon Energy target

[9:04 am] Karoon tumbled 11.5% on Tuesday after downgrading its FY26 production guidance.

Macquarie downgraded the stock to Underperform from Neutral and cut its target price from $2.00 from $1.50, while Morgans cut its target from $1.90 to $1.67.

Yesterday's update featured:

• Operator LLOG advised E manifold production now expected to be restored in 2H27, with removal of the failed riser planned for Q3

• CY26 total production guidance cut 11% to 7.2-8.2 MMboe from prior 8.1-9.2 MMboe (midpoint down to 7.7 from 8.65)

• Who Dat CY26 production guidance cut 41% to 1.2-1.5 (NRI) MMboe from prior 2.1-2.5 (NRI) MMboe (midpoint down to 1.35 from 2.3)

• Brazil production guidance unchanged

• Remediation plan being developed to restore the deferred production

ARN Media settles Sandilands proceedings for $12 million

[9:02 am] ARN Media has reached a binding settlement with Kyle Sandilands to resolve all outstanding legal proceedings, with Sandilands no longer providing services to ARN and intending to pursue independent media opportunities.

• Cash settlement sum of $12.09m, with $3m payable in July 2026 and the balance paid monthly until June 2029

• ARN to provide $1.5m of advertising services on partner platforms over three years

• Net revenue share arrangement giving ARN a 19.9% contribution from Sandilands' new venture for up to three years, subject to agreed thresholds and caps

• Restraints prevent Sandilands engaging with ARN's direct competitors for up to nine months, expiring March 2027

• Legal proceedings with Jacqueline Henderson remain ongoing

Company page: ARN Media (A1N)

Fletcher Building guides FY EBIT to NZ$375-380m, ahead of consensus

[9:01 am] Fletcher Building has flagged FY EBIT of NZ$375-380 million ex-items, well above consensus, while withdrawing its Moody's credit rating after a material reduction in net debt from divestments.

• FY26 EBIT ex-items of NZ$375-380m vs $346.2m ests (9% beat at midpoint)

• Net debt forecast to be marginally above the middle of the NZ$400-900m target range at 30 June 2026 following the Construction divestment settlement and property sales

• Existing construction projects continue to progress, supporting ongoing materials demand

• Rising fuel costs and broader cost inflation driving delays and some cancellations of new projects, particularly in commercial

• If sustained, the trend is likely to weigh on group performance in 1H FY27

Company page: Fletcher Building (FBU)

SpaceX confirms $60bn all-stock acquisition of Cursor maker Anysphere

[8:59 am] SpaceX is exercising the option it secured in April to acquire AI coding company Anysphere for US$60 billion in stock, with the deal expected to close in Q3 pending regulatory approvals.

• All-stock transaction follows April option that gave SpaceX the right to either pay ~$10bn for a partnership or acquire Cursor for $60bn later in the year

• Cursor has scaled to ~$2.6bn in annualised revenue with rising enterprise sales, after being in talks to raise at a ~$50bn valuation in April

Brent tumbles below US$80

[8:53 am] Brent settled 4.8% lower overnight to US$79.33 a barrel, now down 16.5% in the last four sessions.

Brent daily price chart (Source: TradingView)

Goldman, Morgan Stanley cut oil forecasts on Hormuz reopening

[8:47 am] Both banks lowered their Brent forecasts after the US-Iran interim deal, with Goldman expecting Persian Gulf exports to normalise to pre-war levels by end-July and Morgan Stanley pencilling in a more gradual recovery into 2027.

• Goldman cut Q4 Brent forecast to US$80 a barrel from US$90, assuming Persian Gulf exports normalise to pre-war levels by end of July

• Morgan Stanley cut Dated Brent forecasts to US$90 in Q3 from US$100, and to US$80 in Q4

• Morgan Stanley sees 50% of lost production back by September, 80% by December, with the rest following in early 2027

• Tanker flows likely to take several weeks to restore as mines are cleared, insurer and shipowner confidence rebuilds, and relocated vessels return

• Oil prices have slumped to the lowest since early March on the deal, with formal signing expected in Switzerland on Friday

Source: Bloomberg

Qatar plans rapid LNG restart with 80% capacity targeted within two months

[8:44 am] QatarEnergy has told buyers it can restore most of its LNG export capacity within two months of the Strait of Hormuz reopening, faster than analysts had expected, though full restoration will take years following Iranian missile damage in March.

• QatarEnergy targeting 50% of capacity a month after safe passage is restored, scaling to roughly 80% within two months

• Remaining capacity equivalent to two production trains will take years to fully restore following March missile strikes

• Ras Laffan, which exported almost a fifth of global LNG supply last year, has been largely idle for more than three months, with Qatar laying groundwork for restart since April

• Kayrros satellite data shows Train 3 back online as of Sunday, likely a "rotate and test" pattern rather than a full restart, with partial activity also seen at ADNOC's UAE plant

• European and Asian LNG prices remain above pre-war levels despite the tentative US-Iran deal, with Qatar's return set to ease the global supply crunch

Source: Bloomeberg

Hormuz reopening no quick fix as analysts flag months-long return to normal

[8:42 am] Analysts warn the US-Iran deal will ease supply risks but rebuilding shipowner, insurer and refiner confidence will take time, with many buyers already locked into alternative routes and suppliers.

• Karobaar Capital says reopening is a process not a switch, with buyers having spent months securing alternative routes, suppliers and inventories and unlikely to return to the strait immediately

• Saxo Markets flags mine-clearing, insurance costs, port congestion and geopolitical spoilers as risks to barrels moving as quickly as headlines suggest

• IG Australia sees limited downside for crude near term as nations replenish depleted stockpiles and refill strategic petroleum reserves, with prices already down sharply on deal anticipation

• Oil Brokerage notes no big shipowners have changed stance yet, with Japanese, Korean and Chinese owners less risk-tolerant than Greek counterparts and most still seeking clarity on the agreement's terms

• Pepperstone flags the deal as on shaky ground given Iran's demands around reconstruction, US capital and frozen funds

• Societe Generale notes prices have reacted far less aggressively than historical precedent for a supply disruption of this scale, with the path higher dependent on the timing of any reopening

Source: Bloomberg

US companies rush $40bn of debt as Iran deal opens credit window

[8:41 am] US borrowers led by Nvidia and Qnity Electronics looked to raise more than $40 billion on Tuesday, capitalising on the rally across oil, equities and short-term Treasuries after the US-Iran Hormuz agreement.

• Nvidia set to be the biggest investment-grade issuer in its first high-grade bond offering since 2021, with Qnity bringing one of the largest leveraged loan offerings as high-yield prices rose

• High-grade funds have now recorded 13 consecutive months of inflows, with credit spreads near historical lows and yield-seeking demand intact through months of war

• Acquisition financing also active, including a $2.5bn leveraged loan led by Santander to fund LS Power's $5bn purchase of Constellation Energy generation assets, and a $2.75bn loan backing Stonepeak's majority stake in BP's Castrol

• BofA expects further spread tightening in US investment-grade as the war winds down, with lower oil prices supporting cyclicals and easing inflation concerns

Source: Bloomberg

Iran deal the easy part as equities still face Warsh, AI politics and record supply

[8:38 am] Bloomberg argues pricing out the Middle East war was the simple bit, with positioning driven by short covers rather than conviction, and a hawkish new Fed chair, the Fable export ban and the biggest IPO wave in history still to navigate.

• US and Iran due to sign interim peace agreement on 19 June, with Brent crude having reversed roughly 80% of its post-war jump, though Strait of Hormuz reopening and Israel/Lebanon role still unresolved

• Goldman Sachs prime book saw short covering outpace long buying by 4.7 to one last week, with hedge funds buying US equity risk for four straight weeks to cut beta shorts rather than add alpha

• Kevin Warsh chairs his first FOMC on 17-18 June against sticky inflation and rising bets the Fed will need to hike by December, having flagged a "regime change" in communication

• Commerce Department's order for Anthropic to block foreign access to Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5 marks the first time Washington has restricted AI models themselves rather than training chips, politicising the AI trade

• JPMorgan sees net equity issuance rising at its fastest pace since at least 1999, making the market's ability to absorb supply the key test over coming months

Source: Bloomberg

SpaceX extends gains, fades best levels

[8:36 am] SpaceX briefly rallied as much as 17.2% overnight, briefly overtook Amazon (US$2.6tn) and Microsoft (US$2.9tn) but finished the session 4.8% higher, with a market cap of US$2.6 trillion.

The stock has now gained 49% from the $135 IPO price.

SpaceX intraday chart (Source: TradingView)

US equities mostly lower as profit-taking hits semis after three-day run

[8:33 am] The S&P 500, Nasdaq and Russell 2000 gave back some of Monday's rally as the semis cooled after a near-16% three-day surge, though the Dow eked out a fresh record close on rotation into financials and industrials.

• Dow +0.64% closed at record highs, S&P 500 -0.57%, Nasdaq -1.15%, Russell 2000 -0.87%

• Semis, memory and software among biggest drags after the SOX's near-16% three-day run, with profit-taking the likely motive and no specific catalyst

• Mag 7 mostly lower, other laggards included energy, pharma/biotech, chemicals, retail-investor favourites and China tech

• Outperformers were large-cap banks, investment banks, insurers, private equity, payments, machinery, multis, building products, hospitals, apparel and homebuilders

• SpaceX briefly overtook Microsoft and Amazon by market cap following its record-breaking IPO, with positive investor sentiment bolstering the stock

• Anthropic still working with US officials to resolve the Fable export ban, raising concerns of a shifting AI approach within the Trump administration

Good morning!

[8:24 am] ASX 200 futures are down 25 pts (-0.28%)

The overnight session in a nutshell:

• Dow notched a record close while the Nasdaq fell and the S&P 500 slipped, as investors rotated out of chipmakers into cyclicals

• Brent crude broke below US$80 for the first time since March as the US-Iran deal points to a Strait of Hormuz reopening, prompting Goldman, Morgan Stanley and Citi to slash forecasts

• SpaceX higher (+4.8%) but faded from session highs of +17.2%, briefly overtook Microsoft on a ~US$2.9tn cap, and unveiled a US$60bn all-stock deal to buy Cursor-maker Anysphere