ASX 200 Live Today - Tuesday, 8th September

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Tuesday, September 8. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. We'll be wrapping the blog up around 2:00 pm AEST. Let us know how we can make it even better.

Elevra guides to higher volumes and a big step-up in capex

[9:15 am] FY27 guidance points to modest production growth, a large lift in sales volumes and a capital spend more than five times FY26 as the NAL expansion ramps.

• Spodumene concentrate production guidance of 198,000–210,000dmt implies growth of about ~3% on FY26's 197,967dmt, all from NAL at 5.2% product grade

• Spodumene concentrate sales guidance of 200,000–230,000dmt is up around 18% on FY26's 181,494dmt at the midpoint, drawn partly from existing inventory and modestly front-weighted at 55% first half and 45% second half

• Unit operating costs guidance of US$880–950/dmt sold is up roughly 7% on FY26's US$853/dmt at the midpoint, reflecting inflation, FX translation, a higher strip ratio of 10:1 and pre-strip work in Phase 4 ahead of the NAL brownfield expansion

• Capital expenditure guidance of US$120–140m is more than five times FY26's US$24m, with US$100–120m of growth capital for the NAL expansion and Moblan studies

• Sustaining capital of US$20m at NAL sits within the FY27 capex envelope

Company page: Elevra Lithium (ELV)

Red Hill lifts royalty income 142% and declares a 10.8cps final dividend

[9:13 am] Onslow Iron reaching nameplate capacity drove a step-change in Red Hill's royalty stream and underpinned a materially higher FY26 payout.

• Royalty income up 142% to $28.8m on the achievement of nameplate capacity at the Onslow Iron Project, within total income of $31.56m

• Profit before tax up 119% to $28.8m

• NPAT up 120% to $20.1m

• EPS up 120% to 31.27cps

• Final fully franked dividend of 10.8cps takes FY26 declared dividends to 22.4cps, consistent with the policy of paying out 50% of royalty income, with an ex-date of 15 September and payment on 30 September 2026

  • This represents a full-year yield of 4.9% based on Monday's close of $4.55

• Net cash of $62.77m at 30 June 2026, which Executive Chairman Joshua Pitt said leaves Red Hill positioned to keep paying dividends, fund exploration at Curnamona and the West Pilbara, and pursue further royalty acquisitions

Company page: Red Hill Minerals (RHI)

US diesel futures back at record highs

[9:08 am] US diesel futures closed 2.9% higher overnight, sitting fractionally below the record high set on 1 September and now up 118% year-to-date. The chart below adds local refiners Ampol and Viva alongside Brent and Woodside for comparison, with Brent still trading around 15% below its May highs.

NY Harbor ULSD futures (black) and Brent (red) vs. Viva Energy (blue), Ampol (orange) and Woodside (green) | Source: TradingView

Aussie yields hit fresh multi-year highs

[9:00 am] Longer-dated yields like the 20 and 30 year have continued to sit near historic highs of around 5.6%, levels unseen since the first tenor was issued in 2016. The 10-year added 2 bps on Monday to close at 5.21%, the highest since June 2011. Meanwhile, the policy-sensitive 3-year yield continues to hover around the upper bound of its recent trading range, at 4.80%, the highest since March 2026.

Aussie 3, 10, 20 and 30-year yield charts (Source: TradingView)

PBOC lifts gold buying to the fastest pace since 2023

[8:55 am] China's central bank accelerated bullion purchases in August despite a sharp run-up in the gold price.

• PBOC holdings rose 650,000 ounces in August, the largest monthly addition since 2023, extending the buying streak to 22 months

• Gold rose almost 10% in August on a revival of the debasement trade, with spot around $4,456 an ounce

• The US Treasury's plan to ramp up debt buybacks stoked inflation and dollar weakness concerns, pushing investors towards alternative stores of value

• Sustained official-sector demand from the PBOC and other sovereign buyers has reassured gold bulls on the longer-term outlook

Source: Bloomberg

ECB set for an insurance hike as energy lifts inflation

[8:55 am] Traders have fully priced a Thursday move from the ECB as the US-Iran war keeps oil and European gas prices elevated.

• A 25bp move to 2.5% is fully priced, with sources telling Reuters the ECB is ready to go again and euro zone inflation back above 3% in August on higher energy costs

• ING's Carsten Brzeski frames it as another insurance rate hike, or a dovish hike for those who dislike the term

• The path beyond September is contested, with traders attaching a high chance to another move by December and one more next year, while most economists polled by Reuters think the ECB is done after Thursday

• The inflation impulse is not broadening yet, with services inflation falling despite August's headline jump, a soft labour market and wage growth still slowing

• New projections are expected broadly unchanged, though SEB's Pia Fromlet looks for a small upgrade to the 2026 growth forecast after euro zone August business activity matched July's fastest pace this year

• Rising global yields are doing some of the work, with French and Italian 10-year borrowing costs up around 65bp each this year and Germany up 50bp, tightening financial conditions ahead of the decision

Source: Reuters

Iran threatens Gulf energy assets as tanker strikes escalate

[8:46 am] Tehran warned US oil and gas interests across the Gulf are exposed after tit-for-tat tanker attacks pushed crude near six-week highs.

• Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf said the Gulf oil and gas production chain is sprawling, accessible and exposed, and that American energy companies operating in those waters share that exposure

• Hormuz transits at their lowest since May, averaging just 10 commodity vessels a day over the past 10 days, with Tehran set to declare a new restricted zone and shipping corridor through the strait

• US forces struck three Iranian oil tankers on Saturday including one near Kharg Island, following Revolutionary Guard missile launches at a US carrier and destroyer

• Saudi Aramco's Jazan refinery was hit in strikes with damage still being assessed, according to an FT report cited by Reuters, though the report has not been independently verified

• Washington is pressing for a UN Security Council referral over Iran's blocking of IAEA inspectors for 15 months, with China and Russia unlikely to back new action and Trump signalling possible strikes on the fortified Pickaxe site

Copper hits a record high on tariff squeeze

[8:43 am] Copper set an all-time LME high as tariff-driven metal flows tighten availability outside the US.

• LME three-month futures gained as much as 0.8% to $14,533 a tonne, beating the January record before paring some of the advance

• Copper is up 17% this year and 47% over 12 months, with an ageing fleet of large mines struggling to keep pace with data centre, renewables and grid demand

• Tariff positioning is the near-term driver, with the Department of Commerce report advising the White House on primary copper levies still outstanding roughly two months past due

• Global stockpiles have relocated to the US as LME inventories dwindled, leaving spot in steep backwardation to three-month futures, which Cesco's Cristián Cifuentes attributes to metal moving on tariffs rather than excess final demand

• Chilean copper export revenue fell to its lowest in more than a year in August, and global mined supply is on track for its first annual decline since 2017 without a second-half recovery

Source: Bloomberg

Risk assets shrug off the global bond selloff

[8:41 am] The repricing in global bond yields has yet to trigger the usual rotation out of risk assets.

• Credit premiums remain subdued and downside protection across risky assets is still relatively cheap despite the move in yields

• Friday's stronger-than-expected US jobs report hit Treasuries and lifted bets the Fed starts raising rates at its 16 September meeting, with the dollar higher and the S&P 500 closing lower

• Liquidity strain is contained, with JPMorgan finding sharply deteriorating Treasury liquidity but little comparable stress in stock-index futures or corporate bond ETFs

• Schwab's Collin Martin said financial conditions remain easy and credit spreads remarkably tight, with companies unfazed by borrowing costs while earnings grow more than 20% y/y

Source: Bloomberg

JPMorgan says rising yields will not derail equities

[8:39 am] JPMorgan tells clients earnings momentum should keep driving markets, with higher yields a headwind rather than a breaking point.

• Earnings on an uptrend underpin the constructive view, with inflation and yield risks unlikely to derail equities so long as inflation expectations do not become de-anchored

• Government borrowing costs have spiked to near multi-decade highs, driven by the Iran war oil shock feeding inflation and expectations of imminent central bank tightening

• Rate risk is immediate, with Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole language lifting bets on a hike as soon as next week and the ECB expected to move on Thursday

• Non-tech activity is recovering, visible in global ex-China manufacturing output and US non-tech capex and structures, with the analysts recommending investors use dips to add

Source: Investing.com

Bernstein warns Asian equities are underpricing a 5% US yield

[8:38 am] Bernstein argues investors are underestimating the valuation compression risk if the US 10-year pushes through 5%.

• The US 10-year is already close to 5%, a level Bernstein says is not reflected in Asian valuations, noting the only prior periods above it in 2000 and 2007 brought sharp multiple compression

• Forward P/Es look undemanding only because record earnings expectations in South Korea, Taiwan, Japan and Thailand have lifted the base, raising the risk earnings peak just as borrowing costs rise

• Price-to-book is less comfortable, with South Korea and Taiwan at record multiples and Japan and Australia trading above their 2021 peaks

• The gap between earnings yields and bond yields sits close to record lows in Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Australia, leaving thin compensation for holding equities over bonds

• Asian tech at 23.6x forward earnings is around its five-year average, though record price-to-sales multiples leave the sector exposed if yields grind higher

Good morning!

[8:14 am] ASX 200 futures are down 5 pts (-0.05%). Here's what happened overnight:

• US equity and bond markets were shut for Labor Day, leaving Europe and Asia to set the tone on thin conditions, with European benchmarks finishing mixed as energy led and healthcare lagged

  • Stoxx 600 (0.00%), CAC 40 (+0.33%), DAX (-0.21%), FTSE 100 (-0.08%)

  • Hang Seng (-0.93%), Nikkei (+2.12%), Kospi (+4.6%)

• OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra release reignited the memory chip trade, driving big gains across Samsung, SK Hynix, SoftBank and Kioxia and lifting the Nikkei and Kospi

• Oil continued its grind higher, with Brent up 1.5% to US$97.30 a barrel after US and Iran traded strikes on shipping over the weekend, copper set a record on the LME and the yen broke below 155 as Bank of Japan hike bets firmed