ASX 200 Live Today - Tuesday, 7th July

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Tuesday, July 7. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. We'll be wrapping the blog up around 2:00 pm AEST. Let us know how we can make it even better.

Andean Silver hits highest grades ever at Cerro Bayo

[9:25 am] Infill drilling at the Chilean silver-gold project returned the best results in its history, supporting the conversion of Inferred resources to higher confidence categories ahead of feasibility and restart studies.

• Best-ever intercept of 1.4m at 25,340g/t AgEq (3,045g/t Ag and 268.6g/t Au) at the Trinidad vein, within a broader 2.4m at 15,558g/t AgEq

• Trinidad, drilled for the first time in over 10 years, is showing continuity over 800m of strike, with gold-rich shallower lodes accompanying the high-grade silver

• Infill results across the Laguna Verde mine complex point to strong continuity within Inferred resource areas, underpinning the case for upgrades to Measured and Indicated

• Cash of $53.4 million at the end of the March quarter funds ongoing drilling and feasibility work

Company page: Andean Silver (ASL)

Bellevue Gold beats guidance midpoint and cuts hedge book ahead of schedule

[9:21 am] The Western Australian gold miner delivered full-year output above the midpoint of guidance, lifted cash and gold on hand to $206.4 million, and slashed forward sales commitments, leaving it free of contractual hedge deliveries until mid-2027.

• June quarter gold production of 41,643 oz at an average head grade of 4.5 g/t, with 42koz poured

• FY26 production of 143.5koz (143.0koz poured) landed in the upper half of the 130-150koz guidance range, with AISC also within the $2,600-$2,900/oz guidance

• Underlying free cash flow of about $110 million for the quarter, before voluntary hedge pre-deliveries, down from $158 million in the March quarter

• Cash and gold on hand rose $25.7 million to $206.4 million at quarter end

• Over FY26, Bellevue built cash and gold by about $55 million while reducing the hedge book by 83koz, a 55% cut from the start of the year

Company page: Bellevue Gold (BGL)

West African Resources on track for 2026 guidance despite Burkina Faso permit setbacks

[9:17 am] The gold miner produced 125,179 ounces in the June quarter and remains on course for full-year output of 430,000 to 490,000 ounces, though pending government permits have curbed open-pit mining at Kiaka and delayed underground development at Sanbrado.

• Q2 group gold production of 125,179 oz, with year-to-date output of 232,905 oz keeping WAF on track for 2026 guidance of 430,000 to 490,000 oz

• Q2 gold sales of 110,737 oz at a realised price of US$4,556/oz, with YTD sales of 214,883 oz at US$4,744/oz

• Sanbrado produced 57,608 oz, up 37% q/q on a 24% higher mill grade from stronger underground tonnes and grade.

• Kiaka produced 67,571 oz, up 3% q/q on a 6% lift in mill throughput

• Kiaka open-pit mining was cut in Q2 after the government withheld the operating permit for WAF's on-site explosives facility, forcing the miner to source explosives externally and reweight the plan to free-dig ore

Company page: West African Resources (WAF)

Lynas signs long-term deal with JS Link for Malaysian magnet factory

[9:07 am] The agreement expands Lynas into the magnet supply chain outside China, pairing a $50m equity stake with a long-term rare earths supply arrangement.

• Lynas will invest approximately $50m in JS Link ordinary equity to support construction of the Kuantan magnet factory

• JS Link will build the factory with capacity of 3,000 tonnes per annum of NdFeB permanent sintered magnets, near Lynas's existing Malaysia advanced materials plant

• Lynas will exclusively supply rare earth materials to JS Link's factories in Yesan, South Korea and the planned Malaysian site at commercial prices until January 2038

• The deal follows a July 2025 MoU and delivers on Lynas's Towards 2030 goal of expanding into the outside-China metal and magnet supply chain

Company page: Lynas Rare Earths (LYC)

South32 nears key US approval for Hermosa critical minerals project

[9:04 am] The Final Record of Decision on the Arizona zinc and manganese project is scheduled for issuance today, clearing a major federal permitting hurdle.

• The US federal permitting dashboard lists the Final Record of Decision for the Hermosa Critical Minerals Project as scheduled for 7 July 2026, following the Draft Record of Decision published on 6 June

• Hermosa is a zinc and manganese operation in Santa Cruz County, Arizona, holding one of the largest undeveloped zinc resources in the world plus battery-grade manganese potential, both US-designated critical minerals

• South32 estimates total construction cost at approximately US$2.16bn, which would be the largest-ever investment in Santa Cruz County and support around 1,646 direct and indirect jobs

• South32 has sought US$20m under the Defense Production Act Title III, matched by US$43m of its own investment, but says the project can proceed without federal financial assistance

Company page: South32 (S32)

a2 Milk lifts FY26 NPAT guidance despite China label supply hit

[9:01 am] The dairy group now expects full-year profit slightly ahead of last year, upgrading from prior guidance of similar to down, as resolved supply issues and strong non-China-label sales offset a 14% drop in China label formula.

• NPAT now guided slightly up on FY25, vs. prior guidance of similar to down, with underlying NPAT expected to be up and consensus at NZ$199.9m

• Revenue of approximately NZ$1.97bn, up over 12% on FY25, broadly in line with the NZ$1.98bn consensus

• EBITDA margin to land at the high end of the 14.0% to 14.5% April guidance range

• Cash conversion to be approximately 70%, well above the 50% flagged in April guidance

• China label IMF sales fell about 14% on FY25 after 4Q26 supply shortfalls forced many users to switch brands, though English label, Other Nutritionals and Liquid Milk were all significantly up

• Supply chain issues have now been substantially resolved with stock levels back to target, and audited FY26 results plus FY27 outlook are due on 17 August 2026

NZX-listed A2 Milk shares are up 2.8% in early trade on Tuesday.

Company page: a2 Milk Company (A2M)

Fortescue served with class action over workplace harassment allegations

[8:59 am] The Federal Court proceeding covers current and former women employees over a near two-decade period, with damages unspecified at this early stage.

• Fortescue has been served with a representative proceeding in the Federal Court of Australia alleging workplace sexual harassment and sex discrimination

• The claim is brought on behalf of current and former women who worked at Fortescue's Australian workplaces between 1 February 2006 and 5 December 2025

• The proceedings are at an early stage and the amount of damages sought is unspecified

• Fortescue said it is committed to a safe, respectful and inclusive workplace and that such conduct has no place at the company

Company page: Fortescue (FMG)

Samsung set to become world's most profitable company on AI memory boom

[8:55 am] CEO Kim says this year's profit alone will exceed Samsung's cumulative earnings across the four decades since it entered the semiconductor business.

• Samsung is expected to post Q2 2026 operating profit of roughly 84.6trn to 86trn won (US$55bn to US$56bn), and over US$200bn for the full year

• If confirmed, that would top Nvidia's Q1 operating profit of US$53.54bn, making Samsung the single most profitable company on Earth for the quarter

• Kim said one year of the 2026 AI boom is on track to out-earn the combined nominal profits of every prior memory cycle since the early 1980s, spanning the dot-com boom, the smartphone transition and the 2017 cloud supercycle

• The surge reflects the pricing power in DRAM and high-bandwidth memory driving the current AI buildout

US services growth slows in June but hiring picks up as cost pressures ease

[8:45 am] The ISM services index eased slightly while the employment gauge jumped the most since 2024, helped by falling energy prices after the US-Iran deal.

• ISM services index fell to 54.0 from 54.5, in line with the 54.0 consensus, with new orders easing to 55.1 from 57.3 and supplier deliveries slipping to 54.4 from 55.2

• Employment index rose to 51.2 from 47.9, its first expansion in four months and the biggest jump since 2024, with World Cup-related hiring cited as a contributor

• The prices gauge fell to a four-month low of 67.7 from 71.2, its first reading below 70 since February, as oil and gasoline costs eased after the interim US-Iran deal

• Inventories dropped to 51.2 from 62.5, the second-lowest since October, suggesting firms have stopped stockpiling against war-related disruptions

• Fourteen industries grew, led by arts and entertainment, transport and warehousing, and accommodation and food services, while four contracted, with resilient demand in construction, infrastructure and health care and continued support from AI and data centre activity

Waller backs flexible forward guidance as Warsh moves Fed away from the tool

[8:43 am] The Fed governor defended policy signalling as a useful if imperfect instrument, days after the new chair pledged a more data-driven approach.

• Waller said forward guidance remains valuable and helped tighten conditions ahead of pandemic-era hikes, but conceded it is "more art than science" and has at times tied officials' hands

• His comments push back on new Chair Kevin Warsh, who has vowed to move away from forward guidance toward an approach more attuned to incoming data

• Waller said labour market risks have "completely flipped around" and now show signs of stabilising, allowing policymakers to refocus on inflation

• Warsh declined to offer a rate forecast, citing his dislike of forward guidance

Source: Bloomberg

Hormuz traffic recovers and Saudi Arabia slashes prices to Asia

[8:42 am] Easing US-Iran tensions and deep Saudi discounts are reshaping crude flows, drawing Chinese buyers back to Gulf supply.

• Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has more than quadrupled over the past week as confidence in the US-Iran ceasefire builds

• Saudi Aramco cut prices on all grades to Asia, with its flagship Arab Light discount now the deepest since June 2020, after raising premiums to record highs at the war's outbreak

• China bought at least 26mn barrels for July-August delivery from Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Iraq, well above normal ad hoc levels, having drawn down commercial stocks by nearly 1mn barrels a day in May and June

• Shipping risk remains elevated, with Western navies calling the threat "substantial" and reporting the centre of the strait mined, prompting vessels to hug the Oman coast or cross with transponders off

SK Hynix seeks AI investors in $29bn US listing

[8:42 am] The memory maker's Nasdaq debut, expected on 10 July, aims to close its long-standing valuation gap with rival Micron and open direct access to US capital.

• The $29bn listing may be the largest-ever first-time share sale by a foreign company, with SK Hynix trading at 6.2x forward earnings vs. Micron at 7x

• SK Hynix is projected to deliver 221trn won (US$144bn) in 2026 net income on sales of 355trn won (US$231bn), up 415% and 265% respectively on 2025

• The listing gives US investors frictionless exposure via regular-hours trading and eventual Nasdaq 100 inclusion, replacing illiquid unsponsored ADRs

• A cross-market structure should draw arbitrage flows between the ADRs and Seoul shares, though full convertibility remains unclear and could sustain a premium

Microsoft cuts 4,800 jobs as Xbox downsizes and spins off four studios

[8:40 am] The software giant is trimming 2.1% of its workforce in its latest AI-era cost push, with the gaming unit bearing the brunt.

• Microsoft is eliminating 4,800 roles immediately, or 2.1% of its workforce, following a first-ever voluntary retirement program that saw more than a third of eligible staff accept

• Xbox will cut 3,200 people in total, around 20% of the division, with 1,600 going now and the rest through fiscal 2027

• Four studios will be spun out, with Compulsion Games and Double Fine returning to independence, Ninja Theory and Undead Labs moving to new ownership, and Arkane Studios reviewing options

• Xbox CEO Asha Sharma said the division would "return to growth in 2027", framing the year-long restructuring as unavoidable

• Microsoft is the worst-performing megacap tech stock in 2026, down 19% as of Friday's close, on fears generative AI could displace enterprise software while its own AI offerings have yet to land

Source: CNBC

Investors eye old-guard stocks as AI rally stalls, Markets Pulse survey shows

[8:39 am] Doubts about the durability of the AI trade are prompting a rotation toward traditional sectors, with respondents split on the direction for yields and the dollar.

• 53% of the 221 respondents said they are inclined to buy more old-economy shares and take profits from the tech surge into the second half

• Concerns centre on stretched valuations for AI-linked names like Nvidia, leaving them exposed if hyperscalers pull back on spending

• The SOX has fallen for two straight weeks after nearly doubling between late March and late June, while South Korea's Kospi has also retreated

• Survey participants see the Kospi (34%) as most likely to reverse its run, ahead of the SOX (22%)

• Nearly 60% expect yields and the dollar to keep moving in tandem through year-end as both track the Fed, though views are split on direction

• On oil, 73% said they would sell oil and buy equities following the US-Iran de-escalation

Source: Bloomberg

Morgan Stanley's Wilson sees rotation from chips to hyperscalers

[8:39 am] Michael Wilson expects US benchmarks to stay under near-term pressure as investors unwind momentum in semiconductors and rotate into AI hyperscalers.

• Wilson favours hyperscalers such as Microsoft, Amazon and Meta over semiconductor stocks in the near term, citing their strong core businesses

• He expects hyperscalers to stabilise while chipmakers correct, calling the current divergence unsustainable

• The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has slumped nearly 14% from last month's record on valuation concerns, but remains up 123% since September, versus a UBS hyperscaler basket down 2% over the same period

• Wilson holds an 8,000 year-end target for the S&P 500, implying gains of around 7% from current levels

• He also sees consumer discretionary, transport and biotech benefiting from the rotation out of chipmakers

• JPMorgan's Mislav Matejka echoes the view that the rally will broaden beyond tech in the second half, noting AI is unlikely to be the only story

Source: Bloomberg

Wall Street starts week strong as tech leads, Dow hits record

[8:36 am] US equities extended last week's rally on Monday, with defence and tech outperforming while old-economy sectors lagged.

• Dow Jones climbed 0.29% to a record close of 53,055.91

• S&P 500 gained 0.72% to 7,537.43

• Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.12% to 26,121.16

• Semiconductors rebounded around 2% (SMH) after two straight losing weeks, having shed 3.2% last week despite an 80%-plus first-half gain

• Defence stocks stood out, with the iShares Aerospace & Defence ETF hitting an all-time high on its longest win streak since February, as Northrop Grumman rose more than 10% and RTX more than 7% over the past week

• Old-economy names lagged, with home construction sector down around 2% and both retail and healthcare sectors off more than 1%

Good morning

[8:26 am] ASX 200 futures are up 3 pts (+0.03%) after a mixed overnight session on Wall Street, where major benchmarks finished broadly higher despite relatively weak breadth.

The overnight session in a nutshell:

• US benchmarks finished higher despite defensive sectors like Healthcare, Utilities, Staples and Real Estate finishing lower

• Chips and AI led, Broadcom extending its Apple chip deal to 2031, TeraWulf landing a $19bn Anthropic lease and SK Hynix launching a large US listing

• Microsoft is planning to cut 4,800 jobs, A2 Milk upgraded its FY26 earnings guidance, coffee prices surged 15% overnight and Neu Horizon Uranium is set to debut at 12:00 pm