ASX 200 Live Today - Tuesday, 1st September
The ASX 200 is set to fall after a weak lead from Wall Street, plus higher oil prices and rising bond yields. Here are today's top stories.
Today’s ASX 200 Updates
Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Tuesday, September 1. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. We'll be wrapping the blog up around 2:00 pm AEST. Let us know how we can make it even better.
US and Iran trade strikes, pushing Brent back above US$90
[8:46 am] The first direct exchange of fire in a month has reignited Strait of Hormuz supply risk at exactly the moment the Fed is leaning hawkish on inflation.
Hormuz flows are reported at 6m to 8m b/d, though ING assumes an average of 5m b/d, and further escalation could put those volumes under pressure
US forces struck two Iranian launchers on Larak Island, with Iran responding with missiles and drones on two US bases in Jordan, eight of which Jordan intercepted with no injuries reported
Kharg Island threatened by Trump on Truth Social, the terminal handling roughly 90% of Iran's oil exports, with no evidence of an actual attack
Russia extended its diesel export ban by another month to end September 2026, adding to product market tightness
US energy prices rose 14.7% y/y in July and petrol 24.6%, with the pump price at US$4.08 a gallon, close to 30% above a year ago and tracking to a record Labor Day
Bessent flagged weekly sanctions after last week's measures across five sectors plus 60 individuals and vessels, and said Iran's economy could collapse within weeks or months
Venezuela offers no near-term supply, producing 1.2m b/d against a 3.5m b/d peak, with Rystad estimating US$180bn of investment through 2040 to restore it
Anthropic IPO casts a shadow over a crowded US listing window
[8:45 am] The Claude developer is preparing to file publicly for a float that could match or exceed SpaceX's record debut, forcing other IPO candidates to squeeze their deals into a narrowing calendar.
Anthropic is expected to raise as much as the US$86.2bn SpaceX listing, if not more, with a public filing due in coming weeks
Firms and their backers are struggling to hold the attention of long-only investors and sovereign wealth funds while the Anthropic deal sits in the queue
The 14 sizeable companies that listed in the month before SpaceX have posted a weighted average loss of 9.5%
US listings are up 5.6% on a weighted average basis this year, against 13% for the S&P 500 and 17% for the Nasdaq 100
The 16 deals raising at least US$1bn are up just 4.2% on a weighted average basis, with six of the ten largest trading below offer
The September Fed meeting and November mid-terms compress the available windows, with Citigroup expecting half a dozen or more billion-dollar raises between Labor Day and the election
The pipeline skews to AI, with Nscale, Aggreko, CoVolt Power, SB Energy and Switch all in the queue, and smart ring maker Oura the notable exception
Source: Bloomberg
Yields are breaking out
[8:41 am] The US 10-year rose 2 bps to close at 4.75%, the highest since January 2025, while the 30-year also eked out a small gain to 5.24%. Local yields are also moving out, with the Aussie 10-year hitting a 3-month high on Monday and the 30-year trading at multi-year highs. It's not a good look for equity markets.
US 10-and-30 year yields (TOP) and Australia 10-and-30-year yields (bottom) | Source: TradingView
Treasury selloff drives 10-year yield to 19-month high
[8:37 am] Rising oil prices and a hawkish Jackson Hole message from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh have pushed US yields sharply higher, with markets now pricing a real chance of rate hikes rather than cuts.
10-year tops 4.75% for the first time since January 2025, with five-year yields also at their highest since early last year
Forecasters capitulating after Warsh's speech, with Barclays and Societe Generale both switching to call hikes this year ahead of the 16 September decision
30-year lags the move, up five basis points to near 5.26% but still well below earlier multiyear highs after Treasury stepped up buybacks in the sector
Hedging demand building, including a roughly US$6.5m purchase of December puts positioned for 30-year yields near 5.7% versus about 5.25% now
Supply and data next, with September corporate issuance expected to exceed prior records, August payrolls due Friday and CPI on 11 September
Source: Bloomberg
Good morning!
[8:28 am] ASX 200 futures are down 22 pts (-0.24%). Here's what happened overnight:
Major US benchmarks closed broadly lower but off worst levels, though all still banked a winning month
S&P 500 (-0.33%), Equal-weight S&P 500 (-0.59%), Nasdaq (-0.12%), Dow (-0.70%), Russell 2000 (-0.54%)
US monthly recap: S&P 500 (+2.62%), Nasdaq (+3.93%), Dow (+1.34%) and Russell 2000 (+0.86%)
US and Iran exchanged fire for the first time in a month, sending Brent above US$90 a barrel and lifting the US 10-year Treasury yield past 4.75% for the first time since January 2025
Markets now price a roughly 66% chance of a September Fed hike after Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole debut, while Nvidia, Aon and Eli Lilly all put fresh capital to work
