ASX 200 Live Today - Thursday, 8th October

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Thursday, October 8. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. We'll be wrapping the blog up around 2:00 pm AEST. Let us know how we can make it even better.

Fed minutes flag another rate hike by year end

[8:45 am] All 19 Fed officials backed September's rate hike and most see another increase as likely appropriate by year end, though markets are betting on December rather than this month.

• September hike was unanimous, lifting the target range by 25 basis points to 3.75% to 4%, the first increase since July 2023

• Most participants assessed another hike would likely be appropriate by year end, with no timing given

• Several officials viewed the policy rate as not restrictive or only mildly restrictive, suggesting support for multiple hikes

• Financial conditions were seen as supportive of growth despite higher long-term yields, citing strong equity gains and narrow corporate bond spreads

• October hike odds sit around 17% to 20%, down from about 70% after the September decision, with futures pointing to a December move

• One-year inflation expectations rose to 3.9% in September from 3.6%, the highest since May 2023, ahead of CPI data on 14 October

Wall Street retreats from records as bond yields hit 24-year highs

[8:44 am] US stocks snapped a record-breaking run as oil back near $100 a barrel and multi-decade-high Treasury yields revived inflation and rate hike fears.

• S&P 500 down 0.2% to 7,801.77 and the Nasdaq down 0.2%, both falling from record highs, while the Dow fell 0.7%

• Russell 2000 down 1.3%, lagging the large-cap benchmarks

• Nvidia and AMD slipped less than 1% from all-time highs, with the top three S&P 500 holdings (Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft) now around a fifth of the index

• Deere and farm equipment makers fell after the FTC and USDA launched an inquiry into potential anti-competitive conduct

• BofA's Savita Subramanian said equities face a genuine rival in bonds for the first time in decades, with elevated sentiment leaving stocks exposed to disappointment

Good morning!

[8:28 am] ASX 200 futures are down 53 pts (-0.60%). Here's what happened overnight:

• Wall Street snapped its record run as long-dated Treasury yields touched their highest levels since 2002, with small caps doing the heavy lifting on the downside

  • S&P 500 (-0.22%), Equal-weight S&P 500 (-0.81%)

  • Nasdaq (-0.22%), Dow (-0.66%) and Russell 2000 (-1.31%)

• Fed minutes kept a year-end hike on the table, though traders still see only slim odds of a move at the late-October meeting

• Oil hovered near US$100 a barrel as Iran stepped up attacks on Hormuz shipping, pushing the US dollar toward a fresh 2026 high