ASX 200 Live Today - Thursday, 5th November

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Thursday, November 5. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. We'll be wrapping the blog up around 2:30 pm AEDT, after the RBA decision. Let us know how we can make it even better.

Gold reclaims US$4,000 as precious metals rally, oil and coal tumble

[9:38 am] Precious metals rallied hard overnight, with all four majors up more than 3%, while base metals posted more modest gains.

• Gold rose 3.4% to US$4,061/oz, back above the US$4,000 mark

• Silver jumped 5.0% to US$52.25/oz

• Platinum gained 5.7% to US$1,498.70/oz, while palladium led the complex with a 7.4% rise to US$1,002.60/oz

• Nickel climbed 3.1% to US$15,793/t, the standout among base metals

• Aluminium added 0.9% to US$3,053/t and zinc 0.4% to US$3,776/t, while copper was flat at US$6.48/lb

The below table observes various US-listed ETFs and sectors, which offers a useful gauge for what to expect in today's session. The broad uptick for base and precious metals drove a massive rally for gold and silver equities, while airlines (US Global Jets ETF) traded sharply higher off the back of lower oil prices. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 Energy Sector tanked 4.7%, while the Coal Index ETF tumbled 12.7%.

By Kerry Sun

Woodside unveils new capital framework and distribution policy at CMD

[9:35 am] Woodside used its Capital Markets Day to lay out new long-term growth, cost and capital return targets as it works through its three major LNG and oil developments.

• Sales volumes targeted to grow more than 30% to approximately 280 MMboe by 2032, supporting more than US$40bn of adjusted operating cash flow from 2027 to 2032

• Scarborough is 99% complete and on track for first LNG cargo this year, with CEO Liz Westcott saying Trion is targeted for first oil in 2028 and Louisiana LNG for first LNG in 2029

• Structural cost reductions targeted at US$400m a year from 2028 against a 2025 baseline

• A new capital framework requires growth opportunities to compete for capital against shareholder distributions

• A new distribution policy of 20–40% of adjusted operating cash flow, prioritising 20% as a base dividend with up to another 20% available for additional dividends or buybacks

• Portfolio return on average capital employed targeted at 12–15% by the mid-2030s

• A new 2035 emissions target set at 30% below Woodside’s 2025 gross equity Scope 1 and 2 GHG emissions intensity baseline

Company page: Woodside Energy Group (WDS)

NAB cash earnings miss ests as bad debts nearly double

[9:24 am] NAB’s full-year cash earnings fell as a $1.3 billion accelerated software amortisation charge and a near-doubling of credit impairment charges offset otherwise flat underlying earnings growth.

The below ests refer to Macquarie (Sep-26) forecasts, not consensus.

• Gross loans and advances up 5.2% and deposits up 5.2%, with Australian business lending growth of 9.8% supported by market share gains

• Net interest margin up 6bps to 1.80%, in line with ests, driven by higher earnings on deposit and capital replicating portfolios

• Underlying profit down 5.4% to $10,375m vs $10,448m ests (0.7% miss), but up 6.9% excluding the charge

• Cash earnings down 13.4% to $6,141m vs $6,382m ests (3.8% miss), flat at $7,090m excluding the charge

• Operating expenses up 18.2% to $11,639m vs $11,610m ests, including a $1,347m accelerated software amortisation charge

• Credit impairment charge up 85.7% to $1,547m vs $1,327m ests (16.6% higher), including a $403m increase in collective provisions for a more challenging economic outlook

• Final dividend of 85cps fully franked, holding the FY26 total flat at 170cps, in line with ests

Company page: National Australia Bank (NAB)

St Barbara restarts Touquoy, issues maiden FY27 guidance

[9:16 am] St Barbara has resumed ore processing at its Touquoy mine in Nova Scotia after a care-and-maintenance period and issued first-time FY27 production guidance for the restarted operation.

• Touquoy gold production guided at 17,000–21,000oz for FY27, at AISC of $2,070–2,560/oz

• Growth capex of $40–50m guided for the Touquoy Restart and 15-Mile Processing Hub projects, subject to permitting

• Touquoy reclamation costs of $24–30m expected, with release of reclamation bond monies not anticipated until FY27 inspections are complete

• Exploration expenditure of $6–7m guided, with scope to increase once drilling at Old Austen and 15-Mile resources is determined

• Full production ramp-up targeted by end of December 2026, with first gold dore expected in January 2027

Company page: St Barbara (SBM)

Light & Wonder earnings beat ests but outlook trimmed on social casino weakness

[9:16 am] Light & Wonder’s third-quarter profit topped expectations, but revenue fell short and the company now expects full-year earnings growth to land at the bottom of its guided range as social casino softness and delayed customer spending weigh on the business.

• Consolidated revenue down 2% to US$824m vs US$849m ests (2.9% miss), as growth in Gaming operations and iGaming was offset by declines in Gaming systems, Table products and SciPlay

• SciPlay revenue down 12% to US$173m vs US$185m ests (6.5% miss), reflecting softness in the broader social casino market

• Consolidated AEBITDA up 2% to US$383m vs US$386m ests (0.8% miss), with margin up 1 percentage point to 46%

• Adjusted NPATA up 7% to US$163m vs US$151m ests (7.9% beat), with EPSa up 17% to US$2.12 vs US$1.92 ests (10.4% beat)

• Net debt leverage down to 3.3x from 3.4x at 30 June, after US$153m of debt was paid down during the quarter to US$5.0bn

• FY26 AEBITDA growth guidance trimmed to the lower end of the mid-to-high single digit range, with the company citing social casino weakness and delayed customer investment timing

  • Macquarie has FY26 aEBITDA ests of 6%, so the trimmed guidance is still relatively in-line, but still a downgrade nevertheless

Company page: Light & Wonder (LNW)

REA Group beats UBS forecasts as yield growth offsets falling listings

[9:16 am] REA Group’s first-quarter FY27 revenue topped UBS forecasts as strong yield gains in its core residential business offset falling listings, though October data points to a tougher second quarter.

• Revenue up 11% to $450m vs UBS $436m (3.2% beat), or up 8% excluding M&A

• Residential revenue up 10% vs UBS +6.7%, as controllable Buy yield growth of 14% (UBS +11%) offset a 2% decline in national Buy listings

• Operating expenses up 9% to $155m, or up 2% excluding M&A

• EBITDA excluding associates up 12% to $294m, with free cash flow up 24% to $126m

• REA India divestment completed on 29 September, leaving REA with a 24.9% stake in Aurum Proptech

• FY27 outlook unchanged at low single-digit listings declines vs UBS forecast of a 6% fall, after October listings dropped 13%

Company page: REA Group (REA)

Trump plays down prospect of Iran strikes after midterm rout

[9:01 am] Donald Trump said he has no immediate plans to strike Iran after Democrats took control of Congress, though analysts warn the risk of escalation stays high until the new Congress is sworn in.

• Trump said the US is getting everything it wants from the conflict but remains ready to escalate if needed

• Analysts see a high risk of escalation in the coming weeks before the new Congress takes office in early January

• Iran’s parliament speaker warned the US against restarting mass attacks

• Qatar expects feedback from both sides on new proposals after talks made little progress in recent weeks

• Iran wants the US to lift its naval blockade, while Washington is seeking concessions on Tehran’s nuclear activities

• Iranian President Pezeshkian said his government has more authority to pursue peace talks, including on issues previously considered non-negotiable

Source: Bloomberg

Goodman and Digital Realty bid for 9.9% of NextDC at 45.5% premium

[8:54 am] Goodman and US-listed Digital Realty are buying a major stake in NextDC at a steep premium, signalling the pair view the beaten-down data centre operator as a takeover target, according to the AFR.

• JPMorgan offered $9.50 a share after Wednesday’s close, a 45.5% premium to NextDC’s $6.53 close

• The stake is worth about $730m, with the book filled on a first come, first served basis to a 7pm deadline

• Short sellers scrambled to borrow shares to sell into the book, betting no takeover offer is imminent

• The buyer is a trust owned 50-50 by Goodman and Digital Realty, which already holds some NextDC shares

• NextDC shares have fallen nearly 60% over the past year after it failed to secure power for its M3 site in Melbourne

• The M3 problems forced NextDC to cut full-year earnings guidance to $265m from as high as $410m

Source: AFR

Meta draws record €53bn of orders for debut euro bond

[8:51 am] Meta Platforms attracted record investor demand for its first euro-denominated bond sale as tech companies increasingly turn to debt markets to fund AI infrastructure.

• Meta is seeking to raise as much as €9bn, implying the deal is about 5.9 times oversubscribed

• The bond is offered in six parts, with maturities ranging from just over four years to more than 38 years

• The sale follows a US$15bn five-part US bond offering on Tuesday

• Meta’s total debt stood at US$83.67bn as of 30 September

• The raising comes days after Meta expanded plans for what could become a US$97.5bn equity raise

Source: AOL

Democratic sweep sets up tariff showdown as US restarts Canada trade talks

[8:49 am] Democrats’ control of Congress gives opponents of Trump’s tariffs new tools to challenge the levies, while Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has quietly revived trade talks with Canada.

• Democrats can force votes, hold hearings and open investigations once the new Congress convenes on 3 January

• Rolling back tariffs remains difficult because Trump relies on laws giving him tariff authority without a congressional vote

• Lutnick has restarted Canada talks focused on national security tariffs on steel, aluminium, lumber and autos

• The talks exclude the 50% tariffs imposed on a wide range of Canadian goods on 22 August

• Autos remain the sticking point, after the US offered to cut car and light truck tariffs to 15% from 25% before talks collapsed in August

• Canadian PM Mark Carney said the US has softened its demands, with some of its red lines now off the table

China’s national team ramps up buying as Star 50 surges nearly 10%

[8:49 am] China stepped up its defence of the stock market as state-backed funds increased purchases and more companies announced buybacks.

• ETFs favoured by state-backed funds drew RMB76.7bn of inflows on Tuesday, the second largest on record

• The tech-heavy Star 50 surged nearly 10%, its best session since July, while the CSI 300 rose more than 2%

• Tech stocks were also lifted by reports Chinese AI developers may receive only a fraction of the advanced Nvidia chips, boosting demand for local alternatives

• The PBOC cut the rate on its buyback relending facility to 1% from 1.25%, and made the programme permanent

• Banks have applied for more than RMB200bn of the cheap central bank funding, which finances loans for buybacks and stake increases

• Chipmaker CXMT proposed lifting its buyback to between RMB2.5bn and RMB5bn

Wall Street rallies after Democrats sweep Congress as energy stocks slump

[8:42 am] US stocks rallied as a Democratic sweep of the midterm elections raised hopes of an end to the Iran war and fuelled bets on tighter discipline around AI spending.

• The S&P 500 rose 1.6%, with the Nasdaq 100 up 1.1% and the Russell 2000 up 1.6%

• Amazon, Apple and Microsoft each rallied more than 6% on bets a Democratic Congress will force the AI spending cuts investors have been calling for

• The S&P 500 Energy Index sank 4.7%, on track for its worst session since 2025 as oil prices tumbled

• Tesla and SpaceX slumped as investors weighed the fallout for Republican donor Elon Musk’s companies

• Europe’s Stoxx 600 rose more than 1.8%, while South Korea’s Kospi erased a drop of as much as 4%

Data centre stocks slide as Wall Street weighs AI risks from Democratic sweep

[8:41 am] AI infrastructure stocks fell after Democrats campaigned on the data centre boom’s impact on power bills and jobs, though most strategists expect the buildout to slow rather than stall.

• CoreWeave, Iren and Nebius fell, along with GE Vernova, Vertiv, Nvidia and Marvell

• Texas is the biggest risk, home to a third of US AI power capacity and 250 more planned projects, according to Tallbacken Capital

• Texas Governor-elect Hinojosa favours an immediate moratorium on new data centre builds until new laws set guardrails

• Wells Fargo warned Democrats could use debt ceiling talks to challenge the full tax write-off for data centre spending

• Nomura said a slower buildout could ease concerns about hyperscaler capex and the debt and equity raising needed to fund it

• JPMorgan would play for a tactical rebound in tech, but expects the market to become more selective about AI winners and losers

Brent plunges 9% below US$100 on bets Democratic sweep hastens end to Iran war

[8:40 am] Oil prices tumbled to a two-month low as traders priced in a quicker end to the Iran conflict after Democrats won control of Congress.

• Brent fell as much as 9% to US$94 a barrel, while WTI dropped below US$90

• Selling deepened after Vice-President JD Vance blamed Republican losses on the war

• Trend-following funds cut their Brent long positioning to about 55% from 73% at the start of the session, according to Kpler

• JPMorgan said global oil markets returned to a surplus of 1.4 million barrels a day in October as Middle East flows recovered

• Saudi Aramco will maximise production this quarter, with Strait of Hormuz flows holding near pre-war levels

• US diesel stockpiles fell below 100 million barrels for the first time since 2003, limiting the immediate relief from any ceasefire

Treasuries rally as divided government eases deficit fears

[8:39 am] US government bonds rallied on expectations a Democratic Congress will limit the Trump administration’s tax and spending plans, while the Treasury held its auction sizes steady.

• Five-year yields fell as much as 9bps to 4.67%, while 10-year yields dropped as much as 8bps to 4.88% before paring

• The US dollar fell 0.3%, its biggest drop in two months, against all major currencies

• Gold jumped as much as 3.3% to above US$4,000 an ounce

• Treasury will sell US$125bn of 3, 10 and 30-year debt next week, raising about US$28bn in new cash

• Treasury plans to keep note and bond auction sizes unchanged for the next several quarters

• The 7-year note will move to a quarterly new issue from March 2027, with two reopenings in between

Good morning!

[8:27 am] ASX 200 futures are up 170 pts (+1.92%). Here's what happened overnight:

• Major US benchmarks all sharply higher and close to best levels as Democrats won both chambers of Congress, removing election uncertainty and sparking a dip-buying rally in megacap tech

  • S&P 500 (+1.58%), Equal-weight S&P 500 (+1.86%)

  • Nasdaq (+1.44%), Dow (+3.03%), Russell 2000 (+1.58%)

• Brent fell to a two-month low near US$95 a barrel as the White House tied the midterm losses to the Iran war, lifting bets on a faster end to the conflict

• AI data centre builders and chipmakers lagged on fears a Democratic Congress and new governors in key data centre states will bring tougher scrutiny of the AI buildout