ASX 200 Live Today - Thursday, 4th December
The ASX 200 is set to open higher after a solid session on Wall Street. Here are today's top stories.
Today’s ASX 200 Updates
Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Thursday, December 4. We’re excited to be trailing this new format. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. Be sure to refresh manually for the latest updates — and let us know how we can make it even better.
ASX 200 higher, small caps struggle
[2:05 pm] Classic S&P/ASX Emerging Companies Index down 0.85% despite a strong lead from Wall Street (Russell 2000 up 1.9%). A relatively weak session all things considered. Materials the only meaningful bright spot, with copper and aluminium stocks experiencing strong breakout moves.
Real Estate (-2.06%) index very heavy today as bond yields continue to climb to uncomfortable levels. The Australia 10-year yield is now up 20 bps in the last two weeks to 4.66%. On the weekly chart (below), it's set to close at the highest level since November 2023.
Australia 10-year government bond yield (Source: TradingView)
Wisetech gains for a second day
[1:40 pm] Wisetech rallied 4.5% on Wednesday after its 2025 investor day confirmed 95% of customers having moved to the new commercial model. This reduced adoption uncertainty and reinforced expectations of revenue acceleration in the second half. The stock is currently up ~1% today, down from intraday highs of 5%.
RBC upgraded to outperform, target cut from $120.00 to $110.00. Adoption risks largely cleared, execution still crucial, cost-outs improving and governance changes viewed positively.
UBS maintained buy, target cut from $130.00 to $115.00. Medium-term growth thesis intact with potential margin uplift from structural pricing, credible CTO rollout and attractive valuation.
JPMorgan maintained overweight, target unchanged at $120.00. Transparent pricing supports H2 uplift, AI features could enhance pricing power, early customer friction seen as temporary despite high execution risk.
Goldman Sachs maintained buy, target unchanged at $115.00. H2 ramp expected to be CVP-led, commercial model transition pivotal, pricing pressure on large customers still a concern but near-term confidence improving.
Australian household spending picks up
[1:35 pm] Australian household spending jumped 1.3% month-on-month in October, more than doubling expectations of 0.6%.
"If we trust this new set of numbers, then it seems like household spending has regained momentum after a softer third quarter," says AMP Economist My Bui.
However, most of the growth was likely driven by promotional activity. " It is possible that an earlier start to Black Friday sales this year has not been captured by the seasonal adjustment, so most of the biggest increases this month were concentrated in discretionary goods spending such as clothing and footwear and furniture & household equipment," noted Bui.
"Overall, today’s data underscores the RBA’s view that household spending is recovering and there is some “tightness” in the supply capacity of the economy."
Copper continues to gain
[1:33 pm] LME copper futures currently up 3.2% to a record US$11,572 a tonne, this follows a 4.0% gain overnight. Interestingly, lots of copper names holding onto early gains (e.g. Sandfire opened 4.2% higher to fresh all-time highs of $17.04 and currently hovering these levels).
ASX 200 fades early gains
[11:55 am] ASX 200 currently down 0.23% vs. session highs of +0.27%. Most sectors have faded early gains, most notably the Materials (1.06% vs. 1.39% high) and Financials (-0.40% vs. 0.41% high). Overall, it's very choppy out there, the Index is on track to finish the week 0.44% lower.
ASX 200 sits around the 200-day
[11:00 am] Not a whole lot of action at the index level, with the ASX 200 loitering around the key 200-day moving average. Neither bearish or bullish, ideally see more consolidation around these levels. From a sector perspective, it's really just the resource sector trying to offset weakness everywhere else.
ASX 200 daily chart (Source: TradingView)
The iron ore re-rate
[10:55 am] I have no idea how iron ore has managed to sit around the mid US$105s for most of this year, given all the downbeat Chinese economic data and solid supply side.
Overall, the only thing that's bullish about iron ore is that everyone's bearish.
Even if iron ore prices do nothing, you could make the case for some upside from here.
The below table shows what free cash flows the majors could deliver in FY26 based on Morgan Stanley's forecasts (US$94 a tonne) vs. current spot (US$101 a tonne).
Ticker | Company | FY26 FCF yield (base) | FY26 FCF yield (spot) |
|---|---|---|---|
BHP | BHP | 4.4% | 5.8% |
RIO | Rio Tinto | 3.2% | 4.6% |
FMG | Fortescue | 5.0% | 8.6% |
Source: Morgan Stanley Research, October 2025
BHP is breaking out
[10:41 am] BHP is up 3.5% in early trade thanks to the spike in copper overnight and still-solid iron ore prices. The weekly chart is looking relatively constructive and on track to close at its highest level since January 2024.
BHP weekly chart (Source: TradingView)
Andean Silver launches $30 million capital raising
[10:38 am] Andean Silver is seeking to raise $30 million at $1.85 per share or an 11.4% discount to its last closing price of $2.09. The funds will be used to advance Cerro Bayo, for project studies and general working capital.
Given the soaring silver price backdrop, it wouldn't be surprising to see more silver explorers tap the market.
Source: AFR
A little secret about South32
[10:24 am] This might be common knowledge (but news to me). A third of South32's NPV is actually silver, lead and zinc – in other words, the stock could present itself as a means to get silver exposure.
The below charts from Macquarie show South32's NPV by asset (to which the largest is the Hermosa silver-lead-zinc project) and commodity. The interesting thing is that Macquarie's commodity price assumptions (these models are from August) were relatively conservative, with silver forecasts of US$29-34 through FY25-30. So a bit of upside/re-rate potential here should prices continue to charge higher.
South32 NPVs | Source: Macquarie Research, August 2025
Vulcan Energy raises $1.0 billion
[10:04 am] Vulcan Energy has completed an unearthly €603 million (A$1.08bn) vs. its current market cap of $1.44 billion. The sheer size of the raise relative to the company reflects the almost A$4 billion capex burden, and signals heavy dilution plus a long road to financial viability.
It's crazy that only ~70% of the project’s NPV will accrue to Vulcan shareholders after the transaction, given ownership stakes handed to German state bank KfW and an industrial consortium.
At the same time, project economics have been adjusted sharply lower, with NPV cut by almost half to €1.15bn, and the unlevered post-tax IRR falls from 20.7% to 13.7%. Key inputs behind these reductions are unclear.
Revenue assumptions are also overly optimistic, with an LiOH price near US$23,800 per tonne, almost double current spot prices. Using more realistic long-term pricing assumptions like US$ 15-20,000 would likely compress NPV and IRR materially.
Overall, very hard to walkaway with any positive takeaways.
The copper supply case
[9:59 am] Thinking out loud about copper – the past twelve months has been brutal, with four of the world's top copper mines either suspended or hit by major disruptions. This includes:
Quebrada Blanca (Teck): Last month, Teck lowered the production of QB2 from 210-230,000 tonnes to 170-190,000 (a 19% cut at the midpoint) for 2025. The guidance for 2026 was also cut by approximately 100,000 tonnes along side
Grasberg (Freeport-McMoRan): In September, operations were suspended following a mudslide that trapped seven workers underground. This incident led Freeport-McMoRan to declare force majeure and revise its copper and gold sales forecasts downward for 2025 and 2026. The latest update from Bloomberg (Oct 6) noted production remains suspended amid a rising death toll.
Kamoa-Kakula (Ivanhoe/Zijin JV): In May, seismic activity caused widespread flooding deep below ground. The impacted areas account for at least 70% of the complex's current production, according to Citi.
Cobre Panama (First Quantum): The mine was shut down in November 2023 after Panama’s Supreme Court declared its contract unconstitutional, leading to widespread protests. First Quantum has suspended international arbitration proceedings and is engaging in discussions with the Panamanian government regarding a potential restart.
Conservatively adding up the lost production/guidance cuts – QB2 (~100kt), Grasberg (~500kt), Kamoa-Kakula (~200kt) and Cobre Panama (produced ~330kt in 2023) – you land at over 1.1 million tonnes, equal to 5% of global output.
Copper continues to breakout
[9:53 am] Copper continued to break out to record highs overnight (LME copper futures), up 3.2% to US$11,572 a tonne.
LME copper futures (Source: TradingView)
Plenty of copper names have been trading sideways since October (SFR, CSC (recently raised capital), 29M, AIS etc). Wouldn't be surprising to see a strong gap up for most copper names this morning.
I'm back!
[9:49 am] The S&P/ASX 200 is set to open 21 points higher, up 0.24%.
I'm back after a two week break, a little out of touch. At a glance, the resource sector is looking rather bullish (you can probably make a bullish case for pretty much every commodity out there, more on this later).
Today's blog is going to be pretty chill. Less announcements coverage, more broader ideas/food for thought (this is actually the way I prefer to write).
