ASX 200 Live Today - Thursday, 2nd October
The S&P/ASX 200 is set to rise after a solid overnight session on Wall Street. Here are today's top stories.
Today’s ASX 200 Updates
Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Thursday, October 2. We’re excited to trial this new format. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. Today's live blog will wrap up around 2:00 pm AEST. Be sure to refresh manually for the latest updates — and let us know how we can make it even better.
ASX 200 within 1% of all-time highs
[1:57 pm] That's a wrap. The S&P/ASX 200 is on track to log its best day since 21 August, currently up 1.11% and within 0.8% of all-time highs. Overall, a very strong session (though the market has a knack of whipping back into recent trading ranges).
Strong breadth, with 154 S&P/ASX 200 constituents (77%) trading higher
Commonwealth Bank (+1.8%) moving out of a three-month downgrade
Materials sector (+2.1%) rallying to the highest level since January 2024 (it feels like the only reason why it isn't a commodity bull market is because iron ore is still US$100 a tonne)
Lots of materials sub-sectors surged, notably uranium and lithium, but also solid gains for gold, iron ore and copper
Defensives struggled for upside, with Staples (-0.1%) and Telcos (-0.2%) lower
Household spending up slightly in August
[12:58 pm] Household spending rose 0.1% month-on-month in August, according to the ABS. This follows monthly increases of 0.4% in July and 0.5% in June.
Lauren Binns, ABS head of business statistics, said: "The small rise in August was the fourth increase in a row, and spending has risen in 10 of the last 12 months ... Through the year growth remained elevated. Household spending was 5.0 per cent higher than the same time last year."
The key takeaways from the ABS report include:
‘Households spent more on booking airline travel and accommodation services during August. This contributed to a 0.5 per cent rise for Services spending. In contrast, Goods spending fell 0.2 per cent,’ Ms Binns said.
Five of the nine spending categories rose in August. This was led by Transport, which rose 0.8 per cent, and was driven by Western Australia and the Australian Capital Territory. Miscellaneous goods and services also rose 0.8 per cent.
The largest falls in spending were for Recreation and culture (-0.9 per cent) and Alcoholic beverages and tobacco (-0.9 per cent).
Source: ABS
Peak bullishness
[12:41 pm] The past couple of weeks has been a euphoric period for the small end of town, with plenty of explorers and speculative names going absolutely vertical. But today seems like a very noticeable day where the rally is broadening towards large caps.
The S&P/ASX 200 Materials Index is up 2.0% today and up 8.5% in the last nine sessions, trading at the highest level since January 2024. Iron ore stocks are trading to move out of recent trading ranges, while plenty of sub-sectors like gold, copper, aluminium continue to boom, and uranium, coal and lithium stocks bounce from recent weakness.
As we noted below, CBA is starting to move out of a prolonged three-month downtrend, likely off the back of the new 5% first home deposit scheme.
A few names at the top of my head:
Siteminder (+2.2%) moving out to all-time highs, this is despite experiencing a 21% one-day rally on the day of its FY25 results
Bravura Solutions (+12.3%) upgraded its FY26 guidance on Wednesday, finished the session up 18.6%. Now even more vertical
Qoria (+7.3%), a few analysts have touted this one as the next Life360, is rallying today off the back of a Bell Potter note. Also up ~30% in the past month
China and Malaysia in talks for rare earths refinery project
[11:39 am] China and Malaysia are in early talks for a rare earths processing joint venture, with Malaysian sovereign wealth fund Khazanah Nasional likely partnering with a Chinese state-owned firm to build a refinery.
The deal would mark a major policy shift for China, which has banned export of its rare earths processing technology to protect industry dominance. Beijing is willing to swap technology for access to Malaysia's 16.1 million metric tons of untapped rare earth deposits, seeking to limit competition from Australian rival Lynas Rare Earths, which operates a processing plant in Pahang.
Source: Reuters
Iron ore stocks broadly higher
[11:37 am] Solid session for iron ore names, with Fortescue trying to move out of its recent trading range. Iron ore prices remain relatively unchanged, trading around the US$103.50 a tonne mark.
Fortescue daily price chart (Source: TradingView)
Ticker | Company | % Chg | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
CIA | Champion Iron | 4.36% | $4.91 |
RIO | Rio Tinto | 1.99% | $125.03 |
BHP | Bhp Group | 1.66% | $42.16 |
FMG | Fortescue | 1.50% | $19.23 |
Commonwealth Bank breaks out
[11:15 am] CBA has broken above a long-standing downtrend, having recently bounced off the 200-day moving average.
On Wednesday, the government launched the expanded First Home Guarantee, which featured:
Income caps abolished: previously, only those earning under certain thresholds could qualify.
Price caps lifted: thresholds rose to $1.5 million in Sydney (from $900,000), $950,000 in Melbourne (from $800,000), and $1 million in Brisbane (from $700,000).
Lower deposit hurdle: first home buyers can now purchase with just a 5% deposit and avoid lenders mortgage insurance, saving tens of thousands in upfront costs.
CBA daily price chart (Source: TradingView)
Healthcare, materials and financials on the rise
[11:09 am] Key sectors like Materials and Financials broadly higher, while defensives like Utilities, Telcos, Staples and Industrials edge slightly lower.
ASX 200 sector performance (Source: Market Index)
ASX 200 hits 1-month high
[11:05 am] ASX 200 up 0.91% in early trade, finally moving out of its recent trading range to the highest level since 2 September.
ASX 200 daily chart (Source: TradingView)
Qoria surges on Bell Potter coverage
[11:03 am] Qoria shares rallied as much as 8.6% ($0.81) in early trade after Bell Potter initiated coverage of the stock with a Buy rating and 90 cent target price.
"In our view Qoria is at or around an inflection point with the company expecting to become free cash flow positive in FY26. The FY26 guidance also implies or suggests that Qoria expects to achieve the Rule of 40 for the first time with revenue growth of 20% or more and an underlying EBITDA margin above 20%," the analysts said in a note this morning.
MinRes completes US$700 million debt swap
[10:10 am] Mineral Resources issued US$700 million of 7.00% senior unsecured notes (due April 2031) to refinance an existing US$700 million bond due May 2027 at 8.125%. This reduces annual interest expense by 1.125% (approximately US$8m annually) while extending maturity four years, according to RBC Capital Markets analyst Kaan Peker.
"Extending maturity to 2031 gives more headroom for the company, removing liquidity/refinancing risk in 2027. We have FCF stepping up materially in FY27 onwards as growth capex reduces and assets ramp-up," says Peker.
Oil prices hit four-month low
[9:46 am] Oil prices continued to slip overnight, with Brent crude down 1.1% to US$65.41 a barrel, the lowest since 6 June.
Brent crude daily price chart (Source: TradingView)
Insider transaction: Bravura Solutions Chairman
[9:29 am] Bravura's Chairman Matthew Quinn sold 200,000 shares on Wednesday, and now owns zero shares in the company.
On Wednesday, Bravura shares rallied 18.1% after the company upgraded its FY26 cash EBITDA guidance to $55-65 million vs. prior guidance of at least $50 million, representing an upgrade of ~20% at the midpoint.
Bravura attributed the upgrade to:
Continued strength of the GBP
A higher level of project revenues, particularly with our Wealth customers in EMEA
A continued focus on operational efficiency
Company page: Bravura (BVS)
Citi lifts Dyno Nobel target price
[9:22 am] Citi revised its target price on Dyno Nobel from $2.55 to $3.50, citing higher valuation multiples reflecting improved business clarity. Key takeaways from the note include:
Phosphate Hill committed to sale or closure by the second half of FY26, though rising DAP prices (up 21% in the second half of FY25) could support stronger near-term fertiliser EBIT with approximately 94% weighted to second half.
Explosives business benefits from structural tailwinds including demand for precision blasting technology, deeper ore deposits, and sustained miner production levels
Moranbah facility running well post-turnaround and transformation program has delivered approximately 45% exit run-rate, tracking toward 100% post-FY26.
Lithium Americas surges on first draw of DOE loan
[9:09 am] Shares in Lithium Americas rallied 23.2% after announcing a non-binding agreement to initiate the first draw of $435 million on a $2.2 billion Department of Energy loan. The stock is up around 140% in the last month.
The DOE will receive a 5% equity stake in the company through warrants and a 5% economic stake in the joint venture with GM.
Analysts at Wedbush view the amended GM joint venture agreement as a game changer, providing increased flexibility for additional offtake agreements and improved access to capital, while noting bipartisan support reflects strategic priority to reduce China dependency in critical minerals.
Lithium Americas daily price chart (Source: TradingView)
Soft employment data boosts Fed rate cut expectations
[9:01 am] September ADP private payrolls fell 32,000 versus consensus for a 50,000 increase and August's revised 3,000 decline (originally reported as +54,000 gain). This marks two consecutive months of contraction with September the weakest reading since March 2023.
The weak ADP data, alongside yesterday's JOLTs report (relatively in-line but weakest hiring rate since June 2024) and US government shutdown is repricing a more dovish Fed. The likelihood of two more 25 bp rate cuts by year end has increased to 89.0% vs. 77.3% a day ago.
Source: CME Fedwatch Tool
Eurozone inflation accelerates
[8:55 am] Euro-area inflation accelerated to 2.2% in September from 2% in August, driven by energy base effects and services costs, while core inflation held steady at 2.3%. The uptick cements ECB plans to hold rates steady at the October 30th meeting, with the deposit rate remaining at 2% after eight quarter-point cuts delivered so far.
ECB President Christine Lagarde described inflation risks as "quite contained in both directions" and policy settings as "in a good place." Bloomberg Economics notes the September acceleration is likely temporary due to energy base effects, with headline inflation expected to resume its decline in October and undershoot the 2% target medium-term due to downward pressure from US tariffs.
Source: Bloomberg
Trump to use shutdown to turbocharge economic agenda
[8:52 am] The Trump administration is using the government shutdown as an opportunity to advance its agenda and potentially reshape the federal workforce.
The White House is treating the shutdown as a chance for permanent workforce reductions, being dubbed "DOGE 2.0" after Elon Musk's former efficiency effort. Trump has outlined plans to fire workers and make "irreversible" cuts to programs, with budget chief Russell Vought already holding $18 billion in infrastructure funding for New York City and canceling nearly $8 billion in green energy funding to blue states. Two major unions have filed suit alleging unlawful abuse of power.
Source: Yahoo Finance
US pharma stocks surge
[8:49 am] US pharma stocks rallied this week as two major overhangs eased.
Late last week, Trump announced companies building manufacturing capacity in America would be exempt from 100% tariffs on branded drugs.
This week, Pfizer announced a voluntary agreement with the White House on most favored nation (MFN) pricing, with analysts noting MFN will likely be limited to Medicaid while direct-to-consumer discounts should not significantly impact net pricing dynamics.
The S&P 500 Healthcare Index is up 5.5% in the last two sessions. Overnight, heavyweight names like Merck and Amgen rallied more than 5%.
US ISM manufacturing PMI: employment higher, prices lower
[8:47 am] September ISM Manufacturing came in at 49.1 versus consensus 49.4 and prior 48.7, marking the highest reading since February 2025 but still in contraction territory.
New orders index fell sharply to 48.9 from 51.4
Production rose to 51.0 from 47.8
Employment ticked up to 45.3 from 43.8
Prices index declined to 61.9 from 63.7
Participant comments tilted negative with tariffs remaining the biggest drag on sentiment and outlook. Several noted weak demand with customers delaying or canceling orders. The divergence between rising production and falling new orders suggests manufacturers may be working through existing backlogs rather than responding to fresh demand.
Shutdown impact on stocks and economy
[8:45 am] Bank of America and other strategists are downplaying the market and economic impact of the shutdown, arguing shutdowns matter less than debt limit breaches, which isn't at issue this time.
Carson Investment Research analysis shows equity markets historically remain unfazed, with the S&P 500 higher 12 months later 86% of the time, posting a median 12.3% return. The median shutdown since 1976 lasted just four days with a 0.1% median market return during the period.
However, Jefferies warns this shutdown could last longer than normal given entrenched political gridlock, with some additional risk to rate-sensitive sectors as lack of critical economic data could lead to a more cautious Fed. Goldman Sachs estimates each week of shutdown cuts Q4 real GDP growth by 0.15 percentage points, though this would be matched by an equivalent positive effect in Q1 assuming resolution before then.
All things US government shutdown
[8:42 am] Lots of chatter about the US government shutdown. Interesting image from Bloomberg highlight what shuts down during a shutdown.
Source: Bloomberg
Good morning!
[8:35 am] ASX 200 futures are up 44pts (+0.49%) as of 8:30 am AEST.
Major US benchmarks broadly higher despite opening relatively flat/slightly lower
S&P 500 and Dow both up for a fourth straight session and closed at fresh all-time highs
US government shutdown begins after Senate rejected stopgap funding legislation
A relatively quiet session outside of the shutdown, with softer-than-expected ADP private payroll data buoying Fed rate cut expectations
If you’re new to the blog – catch up quick via today’s Morning Wrap.
