ASX 200 Live Today - Thursday, 29th May

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Thursday, May 29. We’re excited to be trialing this new format. Be sure to refresh manually for the latest updates — and let us know how we can make it even better.

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ASX 200 edges higher

[4:15 pm] The S&P/ASX 200 finished 0.15% higher, down from session highs of 0.36%. This is despite the Trump tariff news sending S&P 500, Nasdaq and Russell 2000 futures 1.6-2.6% higher. Maybe the risk-on attitude for US markets is driving funds away from Aussie equities?

Breadth was again choppy, with 105 (52.5%) of ASX 200 constituents closing higher. Sectors that led to the upside include:

• Energy (+1.34%): Brent crude prices up 1.5% to US$65 a barrel. Woodside up 2.7% to $22.73, the highest level since 3 April.

• Tech (+0.84%): Likely buoyed by soaring Nasdaq and Russell 2000 futures as well as Nvidia's better-than-expected Q3 earnings. Top large cap gainers include Megaport (+3.1%), Life360 (+2.3%) and TechnologyOne (+2.2%).

• Real Estate (-0.95%), Materials (-0.41%) and Staples (-0.29%) underperformed, reflecting rising bond yields, a firmer US dollar and a risk-on sentient.

For detailed commentary and analysis - read today's Evening Wrap.

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A rather uneventful session

[3:50 pm] The market is set to finish 0.3% higher, in a relatively uneventful and low volume session. Despite a trade court in Manhattan ruling that Trump wrongfully used an emergency law to collect tariffs on global trading partners, there has been minimal movement in local tariff-affected stocks.

Cettire (-1.2%) previously advised that approximately 41% of its total gross sales in 1H25 related to goods manufactured in the EU and sold to customers in the US. The stock barely moved today.

Breville (+0.8%) experienced substantial volatility during the Liberation Day announcement. The company said approximately 90% of its products, by value, are manufactured in China, and sells approximately 45% of its products into the US. Likewise, the stock is trading marginally higher today.

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Stocks moving on unusual volume

[3:00 pm] These are the S&P/ASX 200 stocks experiencing unusual volume, as a % of their 20-day average volumes.

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Woodside back at 3 April levels

[1:45 pm] Woodside shares are trading 2.9% higher and up 6.3% in the last two sessions, trading at levels not seen since 3 April.

On Wednesday, New Federal Environment Minister Murray Watt has approved the Browse North West Shelf (NWS) extension project.

"The approval comes amid a more favourable political backdrop, with increasing recognition of gas as a necessary enabler of high-renewables grids. The risk of not securing this approval had likely been an overhang on the stock," Citi analysts said in a note this morning.

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Top gainers and losers at noon

[1:00 pm] Here are the top S&P/ASX 200 gainers and losers at lunchtime. The Trump tariff news is driving flows into US-focused growth names like Neuren, Block and Digico, as well as fund managers HMC and Pinnacle.

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Gold prices ease on Trump tariff block

[11:50 am] Gold prices are trading 0.9% lower to US$3,257/oz on Thursday, as a risk-on sentiment emerged following the US trade court's decision to block Trump's Liberation Day tariffs.

The announcement is driving US futures sharply higher (most benchmarks up around 1.5%) as well as a slight uptick in bond yields and the US dollar.

Despite the pullback in gold prices, local gold miners are holding up relatively well.

Gainers: Auric Mining (+2.7%), St Barbara (+2.3%), Regis Resources (+1.3%), Alkane Resources (+0.6%), Emerald Resources (+0.6%), Pantoro (+0.5%), Genesis Minerals (+0.4%), Persues Mining (+0.4%), Evolution Mining (+0.4%)

Losers: Black Cat Syndicate (-4.3%), Catalyst Metals (-2.1%), Vault Minerals (-2.1%), Newmont (-1.3%), Resolute Mining (-1.3%), Westgold (-1.)%), Ramelius (-0.3%), Northern Star (-0.2%)

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Small caps making moves

[11:30 am] Here are the top small caps ($200m to $1bn market cap) winners and losers as we head towards noon.

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Top gainers and losers at open

[10:30 am] Here are the top S&P/ASX 200 gainers and losers in early trade.

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More clarity on Trump tariff block

[10:30 am] The court's ruling restricts President Trump's use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose a global baseline tariff and fentanyl tariffs on China, as well as suspended fentanyl tariffs on Canada and Mexico, finding that the IEEPA does not grant the president unlimited authority to impose tariffs on nearly every country, as Congress holds exclusive constitutional power to regulate commerce.

While the decision does not affect steel, aluminum, and auto tariffs under separate trade acts, it introduces uncertainty into ongoing trade negotiations, potentially emboldening countries to take a firmer stance without the threat of higher reciprocal tariffs, which were paused until July 9 but could revert to higher levels if talks falter, prompting the Trump administration to announce plans to appeal.

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ACCC raises competition concerns for Elders' acquisition

[9:55 am] The ACCC has raised preliminary concerns about Elders' $475 million proposed acquisition of Delta Agribusiness, citing potential reductions in competition for rural merchandise like agricultural chemicals, seeds, fertilisers, and animal health products.

The acquisition could lead to higher prices or reduced quality in rural merchandise supply, particularly in local markets in North-West Victoria, Northern and Central Wheatbelt (WA), Great Southern (WA), and Murray-Mallee (SA), with further scrutiny on other regions and wholesale competition in Western Australia.

“Competition in the supply of rural merchandise is critical to Australian farmers and our global competitiveness in agricultural products,” ACCC Deputy Chair Mick Keogh said.

The ACCC has not reached a concluded view on any of the issues outlined.

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Select Harvests reports major turnaround

[9:45 am] Select Harvests has reported a major earnings turnaround thanks to higher almond prices. Here are the key numbers from its 1H25 result:

• EBITDA up 229% to $60.7m

• NPAT of $28.7m (1H24 NPAT loss of $2.4m)

• Estimated 2025 almond crop of 24-26,500Mt (vs. FY24 29.5Mt or -14.5% at midpoint)

• Forecast almond price up 35% year-on-year to $10.35/kg, with strong demand from China and India

• Operating cashflow of $7.5m (1H24 cash outflow of $23.2m)

• Net debt down 29% to $168.2m

• No interim dividend but will consider a dividend at the completion of FY25 accounts

No consensus numbers available on my side but UBS forecasts FY25 EBITDA of $92.1m and underlying NPAT of $35.5m.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Select Harvests (SHV)

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Futures jump on tariff ruling

[9:35 am • Bloomberg] US stock futures jumped more than 1% after President Donald Trump’s global tariffs were deemed illegal and blocked by the US trade court. The ruling can now be appealed by the Trump administration in federal court.

S&P 500, Nasdaq and Russell 2000 futures are currently up 1.35%, 1.61% and 1.36% respectively.

Source: Bloomberg

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Trajan reiterates FY25 guidance

[9:30 am] Global analytical science and device company Trajan reiterated its FY25 revenue guidance of $160-165m but flagged "some risk to EBITDA guidance".

"FY25 nEBITDA guidance represents an increase of at least 38% year-on-year at the lower end of the guidance range, however, some risk exists in achieving that result due to margin performance," the company said in a statement.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Trajan (TRJ)

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Resolute Guinea exploration permits update

[9:25 am] Resolute Mining has been made aware of media reports relating to the possibility of a large number of exploration permits being revoked in Guinea.

The company says it has not received formal confirmation or communication from Guinea and currently seeking further information from the government.

Resolute as three exploration permits in Guinea (Niagassola, Doko and Siguiri-Kouroussa) with an Initial Inferred Mineral Resource Estimate of the Mansala Prospect of 8.4 Mt grading 1.3 g/t Au for 357 koz of contained gold.

The reports drove Guinea-based explorer Predictive Discovery shares down 19.5% lower on Wednesday.

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Champion Iron reports Q4 and full-year results

[9:20 am] Champion Iron reported its fourth quarter earnings, the below figures refer to the full-year (vs. Macquarie estimates).

• Iron ore production down 2% to 13.83wmt, in-line with Macquarie estimates

• Revenue up 5% to $1.60bn vs. $1.58bn ests (1.2% beat)

• C1 cash cost up 3% to $78.3/dmt, in-line with Macquarie estimates

• EPS down 39% to 27 cents vs. 26.4 cents ests (2.2% beat)

• EBITDA down 15% to $471.3m vs. $452m ests (4.2% beat)

• Semi-annual dividend of 10 cents per share

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Champion Iron (CIA)

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Macquarie upgrades Web Travel Group

[9:10 am] Macquarie analysts have upgraded Web Travel Group to Buy from Neutral after Wednesday's FY25 results met market expectations, while pointing to a resilient FY26.

"We expect WEB will continue to scale TTV and are increasingly confident it will reach its $10bn FY30 target. Visibility concerning medium-term revenue and UEBITDA margins has improved. WEB should outperform other ASX travel peers in volatile macro conditions," the analysts said in a note this morning.

The target price jumped to $6.19 ($4.83 prior and $5.26 last close), reflecting:

• Increased confidence in WEB's $10bn total transaction value target

• Revenue margin outlook has now stabilised and increased confidence it can maintain 6.5% revenue margins in the medium term

• More stable global travel conditions, with WEB highlighting it is less impacted by global volatility than its ASX-listed travel peers

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Broker upgrades, downgrades and target changes

[9:10 am] Here are the broker updates that have crossed the desk this morning.

• Eagers Automotive retained Outperform; target up 24% to $20.35 from $16.39 (MQG)

• Genesis Minerals retained Outperform; target up 21% to $5.10 (MQG)

• Telstra retained Hold; target up to $4.65 from $4.35 (BP)

• Web Travel Group upgraded to Buy from Neutral; target up 28% to $6.19 from $4.83 (MQG)

• Vault Minerals retained Outperform; target cut by 5% to 57 cents (MQG)

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Nvidia earnings call highlights

[9:00 am] Nvidia's earnings call in a nutshell: China's AI push threatens US dominance as export controls risk driving global talent to rivals, though a pro-crypto US administration and manufacturing resurgence signal hope. Nvidia's AI revenue soared 69% year-over-year, with Blackwell driving 70% of data center compute, fueled by surging inference demand and global AI factory projects.

Some of the more interesting tidbits from the earnings call include:

• "AI workloads have transitioned strongly to inference, and AI factory build-outs are driving significant revenue. Our customer's commitments are firm" – Nvidia CFO

• "On average, major hyperscalers are each deploying nearly 1,000 NVL72 racks, or 72,000 Blackwell GPUs, per week, and are on track to further ramp output this quarter.” – Nvidia CFO

• "We are witnessing a sharp jump in inference demand. OpenAI, Microsoft, and Google are seeing a step-function leap in token generation. Microsoft processed over 100 trillion tokens in Q1, a 5X increase on a year-on-year basis.” – Nvidia CFO

• "We have more orders today than we did the last time I spoke about this at GTC. At the same time, we are also expanding and building out our supply chain . ..we expect to keep our supply chain very busy for many more years to come." – Nvidia CEO

• "Shielding Chinese chipmakers from US competition has only strengthened them abroad and weakened America's position. Export restrictions have spurred China's innovation and scale." – Nvidia CEO

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Nvidia rallies on Q1 earnings beat

[9:00 am] Nvidia reported its March quarter earnings after market close, with its shares currently trading 4.1% higher in after hours. Here are the key takeaways from the result:

• Revenue up 69.2% to $44.0bn vs. $43.3bn ests (1.7% beat)

• Data centre venue up 73.3% to $39.1bn vs. $39.2bn ests (0.3% miss)

• Gross margin down 769 bps to 71.3% vs. 70.2% ests (108 bp beat)

• Earnings per share up 56.9% to $0.96 vs. $0.93 ests (2.7% beat)

• 2Q26 revenue guidance of 49.8% growth to $45bn vs. $45.5bn ests (1.1% miss)

• 2Q26 gross margin guidance of 72.0% vs. 71.7% ests (26 bp beat)

• Overall, it was a messy result from mis-matched analyst estimates due to China inventory write-off

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Marcus Padley answers your burning questions | From a bond market collapse to the prospects of a lithium rebound and the future of WiseTech, Marcus Padley answers your burning questions.

The RBA marks down the neutral cash rate again | The Reserve Bank of Australia has slashed its neutral cash rate estimate to 2.7%, sparking debate about whether policymakers will take this lower benchmark seriously as they navigate inflation back to target. With uncertainty soaring and past estimates revised, the RBA's cautious approach could reshape how far and fast interest rates fall in a turbulent global economy.

Is this the dawn of a new crypto era? | Coinbase's historic inclusion in the S&P 500 marks a pivotal moment for crypto, signaling its growing legitimacy as an asset class. With Bitcoin ETFs surging to over $108 billion in assets and a pro-crypto US administration, 2025 could herald a transformative era for digital currencies.

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What's driving stocks?

[8:50 am] US markets were broadly weaker overnight (S&P 500 -0.56%, Nasdaq -0.51%, Dow -0.58%) and finished near session lows.

• Bond yields ticked higher after a 40-year JGB auction was met with weak demand, placing pressure on the Japanese government to reduce long-bond supply

• EU negotiators said they are unlikely to get President Trump to overturn reciprocal tariffs, and warn that they may need to offer deeper concessions to avert a full-blow trade war

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Good morning!

[8:40 am] S&P/ASX 200 futures are up 13 pts (+0.15%) despite a weak lead from Wall Street.

If you’re new to the blog – catch up quick via today’s Morning Wrap.