ASX 200 Live Today - Thursday, 25th June

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Thursday, June 25. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. We'll be wrapping the blog up around 2:00 pm AEST. Let us know how we can make it even better.

Worley flags larger Middle East hit to FY26 underlying EBITA

[9:43 am] Worley has lifted its estimate of the earnings drag from Middle East conflict, with project delays and a stronger Australian dollar weighing on FY26.

• Adverse impact to FY26 underlying EBITA now estimated at up to $60m, vs. prior guidance of $30-40m

• Middle East conflict continues to disrupt existing projects, though no cancellations have occurred

• Customers continue to delay the start and award of new projects

• Stronger Australian dollar in H2 estimated to translate into a $50m hit to FY26 underlying EBITA

The first (A$30-40 million) hit was announced on 20 April, which drove Worley shares 5.8% lower on the day.

Company page: Worley (WOR)

Echo IQ secures binding agreement with Pro Medicus

[9:42 am] Echo IQ has signed a binding heads of agreement giving it strategic backing and US distribution through one of Australia's largest healthcare imaging companies.

• Initial $10m investment from Pro Medicus via secured convertible notes, with an option for a further $10m on FDA clearance of EchoSolv HF

• Pro Medicus to become a US reseller of the EchoSolv suite, providing access to its network of health systems, academic medical centres and enterprise customers

• Investment structure ties the second tranche to FDA clearance, a key potential value catalyst

• Company says it is now fully funded to support US commercialisation activities

• Definitive legal documentation being finalised, with completion expected in the coming weeks and the EchoSolv HF FDA outcome due in the near term

Company page: Echo IQ (EIQ)

New Murchison Gold lifts Garden Gully resource 47% to 359,000oz

[9:39 am] New Murchison Gold has expanded its Garden Gully gold resource, with two maiden estimates and a high share of measured and indicated ounces supporting near-term mine planning.

• Garden Gully resource up 47% to 4.42Mt at 2.5 g/t for 359,000oz of contained gold, including reconciled production to 1 April 2026

  • Increase is 29% over the November 2024 estimate before accounting for mining depletion

  • Measured and indicated categories make up 71% of global ounces

• Crown Prince open pit measured component of 39koz at 3.83 g/t to provide immediate low-risk mill feed

Company page: New Murchison Gold (NMG)

MinRes places Lucky Bay garnet project into care and maintenance

[9:26 am] Mineral Resources will halt operations at its Lucky Bay garnet mine from 1 July, citing Middle East conflict and higher costs less than a year after acquiring it.

• Lucky Bay to enter care and maintenance from 1 July 2026 following a strategic review

• Financial performance hit by Middle East conflict, a key sales region, alongside higher diesel and shipping costs

• Roughly 110 employees affected, to be offered redeployment across other MinRes operations

• Non-cash impairment of around $40m to be booked in FY26 full year results

• MinRes acquired the project in September 2025 from the administrators of Resource Development Group and will assess options including a potential divestment

Company page: Mineral Resources (MIN)

Ventia names insider Mark Ralston as MD and group CEO from 1 September

[9:24 am] Ventia has appointed 12-year company veteran Mark Ralston to succeed outgoing CEO Dean Banks, who flagged his departure in February.

• Mark Ralston appointed MD and group CEO effective 1 September, having most recently led Ventia's largest sector, Defence and Social Infrastructure

• Ralston steps up after 12 years at Ventia across multiple executive positions

• Replaces Dean Banks, who announced in February he would step down in Q4 2026 to return to the United Kingdom

Company page: Ventia Services Group (VNT)

Judo cuts FY26 guidance

[9:22 am] Judo Capital flagged a higher cost of risk from three newly emerged problem exposures, dragging its profit outlook sharply lower despite progress elsewhere.

• FY26 PBT guided to $163-169m, down from prior lower-end guidance of $180-190m and below ests of $180.7m (8% miss at midpoint)

• Cost of risk now expected at $116-122m, driven by specific provision increases across three exposures in different sectors

• 90DPD+ and impaired loans expected at around 3% of GLA as at 30 June

• Second half NIM lifted to over 3.2% vs. prior 3.15% guidance

• CET1 of 12.4% and second half cost-to-income on track to come in below first half of 48.5%

• FY27 PBT guided to $210-220m, well short of ests of $255.1m (16% miss at midpoint)

This is probably the most material announcement today (or so far this morning). A sizeable FY26 downgrade vs. prior guidance and consensus, and material FY27 miss.

Company page: Judo Capital Holdings (JDO)

a2 Milk declares NZ$300m fully franked special dividend after China regulatory approval

[9:16 am] The a2 Milk Company will return NZ$300 million to shareholders following SAMR approval to transition two China label infant formula registrations to a2 branded products.

• Special dividend of NZ$300m, or 41.362 cents per share, fully franked and unimputed

• Follows 22 June approval from China's SAMR to move two China label infant formula registrations acquired with the Pokeno facility to a2 branded products

• Franking credit of 17.72 cents per share at 100% franking

• Ex-dividend date 8 July, record date 9 July, payment date 24 July 2026

NZX-listed A2 Milk shares are currently up 5.6% to NZ$8.95, which implies a yield of 4.6% for the special dividend.

Company page: a2 Milk Company (A2M)

Tasmea sees 70% earnings growth in FY27

[9:15] Tasmea's FY27 outlook points to more than 70% earnings growth, underpinned by a record order book and a full year of recent acquisitions.

• FY27 Underlying EBITA guided to $202-208m versus ests of $204.8m (in line at midpoint)

• FY27 Underlying NPATA guided to $128-132m, representing more than 70% growth year-on-year

• Guidance assumes a full 12-month contribution from Maxim Group and 11 months from JPS Group, subject to ACCC approval

• Existing base businesses forecast to grow organically at 10% to 15% in FY27

• FY26 guidance reaffirmed

Tasmea has been one of the most incredible industrial names and IPOs. The stock is up 128% year-to-date, up 196% in the past twelve months and up 518% from the IPO offer price of $1.56 back in April 2024.

Company page: Tasmea (TEA)

Gold stocks set to tumble

[9:14 am] Gold prices continued to tumble overnight, down 2.6% to US$4,003/oz and down a further 0.2% in early trade to US$3,994/oz.

Gold daily price chart (Source: TradingView)

This drove the VanEck Gold Miners ETF 3.9% lower overnight. The NYSE-listed Newmont also fell 3.8% to US$94.04.

Australian core inflation accelerates in May, keeping RBA hawkish

[9:11 am] Australia's core inflation stayed above the top of the RBA's target band in May, reinforcing expectations the central bank will keep a hawkish stance on rates.

• The trimmed mean rose 3.6% year-on-year, above the 3.5% consensus, and climbed 0.4% month-on-month vs. a forecast 0.3%.

• Headline CPI rose 4%, below the 4.3% expected, and fell 0.7% month-on-month against an estimated 0.4% drop, with all 11 groups rising on an annual basis.

• Housing was the largest contributor to annual inflation at +6.5%, automotive fuel prices fell 11.9% month-on-month after a 7% April decline.

• The RBA has hiked three times this year and remains above its 2-3% target band, a goal unmet since 2021, with the Iran war having pushed up fuel costs.

• Bloomberg Economics says energy-support measures are pushing headline inflation down faster than expected, but firmer underlying inflation means it is too early for the RBA to relax.

• The RBA board next meets on 10-11 August and May labour force data is due today, with unemployment seen edging down to 4.4%.

Source: Bloomberg

Economists abandon China rate-cut calls, but PBOC adviser keeps door ajar

[9:08 am] A growing share of economists now expect the PBOC to hold its policy rate through 2026, though a central bank adviser says a cut remains possible.

• Slightly more than half of 33 economists polled by Bloomberg see the PBOC on pause this year, the rest expect a small cut by year-end.

• Goldman Sachs and Nomura have already dropped their easing calls.

• PBOC monetary policy committee member Huang Yiping said "a rate cut could still be on the table" but was not certain it would happen, stressing targeted support for tech innovation and livelihoods.

• Inflation is expected to run hotter than previously thought with oil above year-ago levels, while soaring exports support growth.

• Q2 activity has slowed sharply after a strong start to the year; May retail sales contracted for the first time since the late-2022 Covid reopening, and fixed-asset investment shrank more than expected.

• AI-driven export and import growth is still propelling industrial production.

• The PBOC has not cut its benchmark or RRR in over a year, constraints include record-low net interest margins of 1.4%, weak borrowing demand and the property downturn.

Source: Bloomberg

Bank of Canada rejects recession label despite back-to-back contractions

[9:06 am] The Bank of Canada pushed back against calls that the economy is in recession at its June meeting, acknowledging weak growth and labour market slack but stopping short of declaring a downturn.

• Real GDP fell 0.1% annualised in Q1 after a 1% decline in Q4, but officials said two contractions were not enough to confirm a recession, defined as a "deep, widespread and persistent" decline.

• A major Q1 drag was a sharp drop in weapons systems spending; consumer spending rose and the bank expects growth to resume in Q2.

• Policymakers held the policy rate at 2.25%, citing a "dilemma" in setting rates that both support growth and prevent higher oil prices feeding into broader inflation.

• The rate path was described as highly dependent on energy prices, with officials wary of both raising too soon and holding too long.

• Governor Tiff Macklem called the US-Iran interim deal and subsequent oil decline "very welcome news" that removed some upside inflation risk.

• Core inflation measures are hovering near the 2% target, with price pressures viewed as "generally contained" and limited evidence of pass-through; expectations remain "well-anchored".

Source: Bloomberg

BofA pulls back near-term gold view but stays bullish long term

[9:03 am] Bank of America has tempered its near-term gold outlook on rising rate-hike expectations tied to the US-Iran conflict, while keeping faith in the longer-term bull case.

• Previous US$6,000/oz target by next spring now seen as unlikely given the shift towards tighter Fed policy

• Markets pricing a 70% chance of a September rate hike and near-certain December hike, a headwind for non-yielding gold

• Long-term bull case intact, supported by persistent US budget deficits and de-dollarisation trends

• Nearly three-quarters of central banks surveyed expect lower dollar reserve holdings over the next five years, pointing to further gold buying

• Gold mining equities pricing gold at an average US$3,354/oz, a 19% discount to spot

Oil prices dip, but Fed rate hike expectations remain unchanged

[9:02 am] Brent tumbled 4.7% overnight to US$73.37, the lowest since 27 February. Prices are now down ~38% since the 6 March high of US$119 a barrel and down 22.8% in the last eleven sessions.

Brent daily price chart (Source: TradingView)

Despite freefalling oil prices and a slight pullback in bond yields overnight, Fed rate hike expectations remain relatively unchanged. The likelihood of one 25 bp hike edged higher to 39.1%, while two hikes sit at a still-elevated 31.9%.

Source: CME Fedwatch Tool

Micron beats estimates and guides Q4 well ahead on AI memory demand

[9:01 am] The highly anticipated Micron result might just be enough to save the softening AI trade, with the stock up ~14% after hours. The standout was a Q4 guide well clear of consensus, signalling the AI-driven memory up-cycle is accelerating rather than peaking.

• Revenue of $41.46bn vs $35.5bn ests (17% beat)

• Adjusted EPS of $25.11 vs $20.40 ests (23% beat)

• Adjusted gross margin of 84.9% vs 81.8% ests (310bps beat)

• Q4 revenue guided to $50.0bn vs $43.4bn ests (15% above)

• Q4 adjusted EPS guided to $31.00 vs $24.30 ests (28% above)

• HBM4 now in high-volume shipments to its lead customer, with HBM4E volume production slated for calendar 2027

Micron flags multi-year supply tightness and a faster HBM4 ramp

[9:00 am] CEO commentary pointed to demand running well ahead of supply, with the HBM4 ramp tracking at twice the pace of the prior generation.

• On supply: "DRAM and NAND industry demand continues to significantly exceed industry supply. We expect tight conditions to persist beyond calendar 2027", adding the company has no line of sight on when supply catches up to demand.

• On HBM4: "HBM4 12-high high-volume ramp is tracking twice as fast as HBM3E 12-high. We have already shipped over $1 billion in HBM4 revenue".

• On customer agreements: "We have now signed 16 strategic customer agreements", with 14 carrying cumulative minimum-price revenue of roughly $100bn over the remaining term.

• On server demand: "We now expect calendar 2026 industry server units to grow high-teens percent, above our prior expectations of low double digits", with stronger growth still in AI-accelerator servers.

• On robotics: "Humanoid robots carry 10 times the amount of memory as an average L2+ vehicle", framing a multi-decade demand cycle starting late this decade.

• On capacity: "Taiwan's Tongluo fab is now expected to support meaningful shipments from mid-calendar 2027, "about a quarter earlier than our prior expectations".

UAE oil exports recovered to 85% of pre-war levels before peace deal, IEA says

[8:59 am] UAE oil exports rebounded to nearly 85% of pre-Iran war levels in early June, recovering even before the US-Iran interim deal as the Gulf state leaned on pipelines, storage and alternate routes.

• Exports rose to 4.3m bpd in early June from just 1.9m bpd in March, shortly after the war broke out, per the IEA.

• The UAE used a pipeline bypassing Hormuz to Fujairah, plus its 42m-barrel Mandous underground storage facility near the port.

• It also ramped exports through Hormuz "with tankers' transponders turned off to avoid detection".

• Adnoc became one of the region's most active shippers during the war, using its own fleet and smaller tankers to shuttle crude out of the strait.

• Such workarounds, alongside record US exports and an unexpected slowdown in Chinese demand, helped keep crude from spiking toward the $200 levels some had forecast.

• Oil now trades near pre-war levels after the deal and the pickup in strait flows, though some ships still turn off transponders for part of the crossing.

Source: Bloomberg

Tankers carrying 35 million barrels exit Hormuz as Gulf oil flows rebuild

[8:57 am] At least 20 oil tankers stranded in the Persian Gulf with 35 million barrels have exited the Strait of Hormuz since the US-Iran deal reopened the sea lane, according to Kpler.

• The tankers, none Iranian in origin, had been stuck for more than three months after Tehran effectively closed Hormuz; most are Asia-bound and should arrive by early August.

• Confirmed oil shipments through Hormuz have risen to ~4.8m bpd since the deal, the highest in June since the 28 February US-Israel attack, but still well below the prewar 15m bpd.

• Iranian tankers carrying ~21m barrels exited Hormuz in June; ships loaded since late April have moved out 51m barrels, with the true figure likely higher given transponders were off.

• The US Navy lifted its Iran blockade on 18 June, and Treasury waived sanctions on Iranian oil sales through August.

• The Joint Maritime Information Center downgraded the Hormuz threat level to "moderate" from "critical" as recently as 4 June, saying an attack is "possible but not likely".

• The IMO is implementing an evacuation plan for the 11,000-plus seafarers still stranded, backed by Iran, Oman, the US and other Gulf states.

Source: CNBC

Trump clashes with Republican senator over unpopular Iran war as White House seeks $70bn

[8:52 am] Trump faced pointed criticism over the Iran conflict in a closed-door Republican meeting, hours before his administration asked Congress for tens of billions of dollars to fund the war.

• Trump reportedly engaged in a shouting match with Republican Senator Bill Cassidy, who said the administration must explain a framework deal that offers Iran financial incentives without meeting the war's original goals.

• The administration asked Congress for US$70bn to cover war costs, on top of the US$867bn US military budget.

• Just one in four Americans think the war was worth its costs, per a Reuters/Ipsos poll, with Trump's approval at its lowest since he returned to office.

• The exchange followed a largely symbolic Senate vote directing Trump to end the war, backed by four Republicans including Cassidy.

• The deal sets up 60 days of talks on thornier details, including Iran's nuclear programme.

Source: Reuters

Google poised to lose two more senior AI staffers to Anthropic

[8:45 am] Two Google researchers seen as key contributors to its Gemini model are leaving for Anthropic, adding to a run of high-profile exits that risk undercutting Alphabet's position in AI.

• Jonas Adler (AI coding) and Alexander Pritzel (AI training) are set to join Anthropic, according to people familiar with the matter.

• The pair will reunite with Nobel laureate John Jumper, who recently left Google for Anthropic; star researcher Noam Shazeer has separately departed for OpenAI.

• Alphabet shares closed slightly lower, having fallen as much as 1.2% during Wednesday's session.

• Anthropic and OpenAI, both on the cusp of going public, are luring Big Tech staff with the chance of a pre-IPO payday.

• Anthropic recently raised at a $965bn valuation, overtaking OpenAI, and is weighing an IPO as soon as this autumn.

Source: Bloomberg

Doncasters US IPO more than 30 times oversubscribed, set to price above range

[8:41 am] Doncasters Group's New York listing has drawn orders for more than 30 times the available shares, prompting the aerospace and industrial gas turbine parts maker to lift pricing above its marketing range.

• The 250-year-old Derby-based company now expects to price $1 to $2 above its $28-$32 range.

• At the top of the range, the IPO and two private placements could raise up to $887.7m in aggregate.

• The IPO alone would raise $746.6m at the top of the marketing range.

• Existing shareholders, including directors, have agreed to buy ~$66m of shares; Qatar Investment Authority is set to invest ~$75m, both via separate private placements.

• Heavy demand means investors are likely to be scaled back significantly from their orders.

• The listing rides a wave of industrial IPOs fuelled by demand for indirect AI data centre exposure; Innio is up 40% since its IPO this month, while Madison Air Solutions raised $2.6bn in April.

• Doncasters' turbine parts serve GE Vernova and Siemens Energy in power generation, with an engine products order backlog of $930m as of 29 March.

Source: Bloomberg

US stocks slip as chip sell-off resumes; oil tumbles below $70

[8:38 am] US equities ended mixed on Wednesday as semiconductors failed to bounce after the week's rout, with investors positioning ahead of Micron's earnings and a key inflation reading.

• S&P 500 -0.10%, Nasdaq -0.43% and Dow +0.35%

• Brent down 4.7% to US$73.37, its lowest since before the late-February US-Israel strikes on Iran; WTI -3.92% at $70.34, having hit its lowest since early March

• 10-year Treasury yield fell below 4.5% as oil slid

• Micron shares surge 14.8% after hours on better-than-expected earnings

• Energy names sold off, with Exxon, Chevron, ConocoPhillips and SLB all down more than 2%

• Bitcoin slid to US$59,024, its lowest since October 2024.

Source: CNBC

Good morning!

[8:29 am] ASX 200 futures are up 16 pts (+0.18%)

The overnight session in a nutshell:

• Major US benchmarks mixed as tech, energy and commodities underperformed, while the Dow and Equal-weight S&P 500 edged higher  

• Micron blew past estimates, revenue up 346% year-on-year to $41.46bn and Q4 guided near $50bn, shares up over 16% after hours 

• Commodities sold off, gold under US$4,000 and oil at pre-war lows as Strait of Hormuz risk eased