ASX 200 Live Today - Thursday, 19th June
The S&P/ASX 200 is set to open lower after a choppy overnight session. Here are today's top stories.
Today’s ASX 200 Updates
Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Tuesday, June 17. We’re excited to be trialing this new format. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. Be sure to refresh manually for the latest updates — and let us know how we can make it even better.
ASX 200 grinds lower, Bank rally offset by miner weakness
[4:40 pm] The S&P/ASX 200's recent performance truly feels like death by a thousand cuts. The market finished the session 0.09% lower to a near two-week low, and now down five of the last six sessions. Still, despite this recent weakness, the market remains within 1% of all-time highs.
Today's session highlighted a stark divide between two heavyweight sectors. The Big Four banks provided the market's bright spot, with Commonwealth Bank (+1.48%) leading the charge to record highs. However, this strength was largely neutralized by a sharp selloff in the materials sector. The S&P/ASX 200 Materials Index tumbled 1.78% for the session and has now declined 5.3% over the past six sessions. The pain was widespread among miners, with Evolution Mining (-4.5%) leading the declines, followed by Rio Tinto (-2.3%) and BHP (-1.9%).
RBC's take on unemployment data and interest rates
[3:20 pm] RBC Capital Markets’ chief economist Su-Lin Ong gives her take on the latest Australian employment data and its implications for the RBA's rate path.
Headline employment fell by 2.5k (below consensus of +21k), likely a correction after April’s strong 87.6k gain. The 3-month average (+36.9k) and 6-month average (+25.2k) remain solid.
Full-time jobs increased by 38.7k, following a 58.6k gain in April, signaling strength.
RBA’s Perspective Unchanged: The data aligns with the RBA’s view of a slightly tight labour market, with declining underutilisation and stable unemployment. This is unlikely to alter the RBA’s stance at the July meeting, especially as they assess whether the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) is lower than previously thought.
RBA Rate Cut Outlook: The combination of a tight labour market, persistent inflation pressures, and global uncertainties suggests the RBA will remain patient. The next rate cut is more likely in August than July, consistent with cautious signals from other central banks like the U.S. Federal Reserve.
Median growth super fund estimated to return 9% in FY25
[1:56 pm] Aussie workers may be interested to note the median growth super fund is forecast to have returned 9% in FY2025, according to research by industry group Chant West.
“This year’s result would follow the strong returns for FY23 and FY24 when growth options returned 9.2 per cent and 9.1 per cent, respectively," said Mano Mohankumar a Senior Investment Research Manager.
"It would also represent the fourteenth positive year out of the last 16. Most importantly, super funds continue to meet their long-term return and risk objectives,” he said.
The data comes out with just days left in FY25.
By Tom Richardson.
Morgan Stanley on Boss Energy
[1:43 pm] Broker Morgan Stanley is sticking to an equal weight rating on uranium miner Boss Energy.
The retail investor favourite said it had met production guidance for FY25 as at June 17.
The miner is due to update production and cost guidance for FY2026 on July 2028.
Morgan Stanley has a $2.70 valuation on the stock, versus the market at $4.68 on Thursday lunchtime.
By Tom Richardson
NAB tips three more rate cuts in 2025
[1:20 pm] National Australia Bank's economics team is looking though today's jobs data and sticking to its call for three more cuts to the cash rate from the Reserve Bank this year. This morning the jobless rate held steady at 4.1% for May slightly below the central bank's forecast at 4.2%.
"We think there are good reasons to believe the labour market is not as tight as the headline unemployment rate suggests and we still look for the RBA to cut rates in July, followed by August and November to take the cash rate to 3.1% - a rate which we consider to be around neutral," said NAB.
By Tom Richardson.
"Three stocks with optionality": Morgan Stanley
[1:00 pm] Morgan Stanley has upgraded price targets for three Australian mid-cap stocks, citing untapped growth opportunities that could deliver substantial returns for investors willing to look beyond current market valuations.
This includes:
Eagers Automotive target price up to $20.00 from $17.00
Temple & Webster target price up to $28.00 from $18.50
Life360 target price up to $40.00 from $33.30
"The stocks we focus on are: 360 for its subs growth from pet tracking, TPW for its expansion into home improvement, and APE for its opportunity in fixed-price used," the analysts said in a note this morning.
UBS' Fed takeaways
[11:30 am] Here are UBS' key takeaways from this morning's Fed meeting:
Unchanged Policy Rates and 2025 Projections: The FOMC kept interest rates unchanged and maintained the median policy rate assumption for 2025 at 3.9%, despite expectations for a slight upward revision. This suggests a continued expectation of two 25 bp rate cuts in 2025.
Upward Revisions for 2026 and 2027: The median policy rate projection was revised up by 25 bp to 3.6% for 2026 and to 3.4% for 2027, aligning with some expectations but indicating a slightly tighter policy stance in the longer term.
Inflation Projections: Core PCE inflation is projected at 3.1% for 2025, higher than anticipated, and declines to 2.1% by 2027. Neither headline nor core inflation is expected to return to the 2% target within the forecast horizon, showing greater FOMC tolerance for above-target inflation than expected.
Economic Growth and Unemployment: GDP growth projections were lowered for 2025 and 2026, reflecting below-trend growth, with a return to trend in 2027. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.5% in 2025 and 2026, dipping to 4.4% in 2027, though some analysts predict it could approach 4.9% in 2026.
Policy Stance and Statement: The FOMC made no changes to its policy stance and only minor adjustments to its statement, downplaying uncertainty and risks despite trade policy uncertainties. This was unexpected given the volatile economic outlook.
Cautious Approach: The FOMC appears more comfortable with the current inflation profile and is prioritising limiting unemployment increases over aggressive tightening to address inflation above 3%, contrary to some expectations of a tougher stance.
Small caps making moves
[11:15 am] Here are the top small caps ($200m to $1bn market cap) winners and losers in early trade.
Ticker | Company | % Chg | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
ELS | Elsight | 18.35% | $1.29 |
WTN | Winton Land | 14.02% | $1.87 |
RAC | Race Oncology | 9.45% | $1.39 |
TBN | Tamboran Resources | 8.57% | $0.19 |
SYR | Syrah Resources | 7.69% | $0.28 |
APX | Appen | 7.61% | $1.06 |
CRN | Coronado Global | 7.14% | $0.15 |
KLS | Kelsian Group | 6.94% | $3.47 |
CWP | Cedar Woods Properties | 5.87% | $7.03 |
MAU | Magnetic Resources | 4.52% | $1.62 |
Ticker | Company | % Chg | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
AMI | Aurelia Metals | -28.85% | $0.22 |
MEK | Meeka Metals | -11.43% | $0.16 |
SVL | Silver Mines | -9.63% | $0.12 |
LIC | Lifestyle Communities | -7.27% | $6.12 |
LAM | Laramide Resources | -5.88% | $0.80 |
BRE | Brazilian Rare Earths | -5.79% | $2.28 |
LRV | Larvotto Resources | -5.65% | $0.59 |
PMT | Patriot Battery Metals | -5.20% | $0.24 |
KCN | Kingsgate Consolidated | -4.92% | $2.32 |
BGD | Barton Gold Holdings | -4.81% | $0.89 |
Top gainers and losers in early trade
[10:45 am] Here are the top S&P/ASX 200 gainers and losers in early trade.
Ticker | Company | % Chg | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
ZIM | Zimplats Holdings | 6.05% | $17.00 |
HMC | Hmc Capital | 2.77% | $4.83 |
APE | Eagers Automotive | 2.64% | $17.33 |
CWY | Cleanaway Waste Management | 1.85% | $2.75 |
ALL | Aristocrat Leisure | 1.77% | $66.87 |
EVT | Evt | 1.62% | $16.34 |
DGT | Digico Infrastructure Reit | 1.54% | $3.96 |
MEZ | Meridian Energy | 1.54% | $5.28 |
TPG | Tpg | 1.47% | $5.52 |
WBC | Westpac | 1.45% | $33.50 |
Ticker | Company | % Chg | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
PRU | Perseus Mining | -4.86% | $3.52 |
EVN | Evolution Mining | -3.62% | $7.86 |
CEN | Contact Energy | -3.23% | $8.40 |
NEU | Neuren Pharmaceuticals | -3.17% | $12.51 |
MP1 | Megaport | -2.97% | $13.72 |
OBM | Ora Banda Mining Ltd | -2.95% | $0.92 |
RMS | Ramelius Resources | -2.64% | $2.58 |
AAI | Alcoa Corporation | -2.62% | $43.11 |
SFR | Sandfire Resources | -2.61% | $11.40 |
MSB | Mesoblast | -2.51% | $1.75 |
Meeka raises $60m to accelerate growth
[9:45 am] Meeka Metals received commitments for a $60 million institutional placement priced at 15 cents per share or a 14% discount to its last close. The company says the proceeds will be used to:
Expanding and accelerating open pit operations with mobilisation of a third open pit mining fleet (200t digger and 140t truck fleet)
Accelerating open pit and underground growth drilling
Confirm the processing expansion pathway beyond current 600tpa
The capital raise comes as Meeka has emerged as one of the market's best-performing gold stocks, surging 40% over the past month and 127% year-to-date. With the company anticipating its first gold pour in June 2025 and cash flows by early July, it'll be interesting to see if the stock can stabilise or recover from the typical weakness that follows capital raisings.
Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Meeka Metals (MEK)
Syrah recommences graphite production
[9:30 am] Syrah Resources has restarted natural graphite production at its Balama Graphite Operation in Mozambique following restored site access in May 2025. The restart will involve remobilisation, inspection, maintenance, and preparatory activities.
The company will progressively increase plant utilisation and production volumes in an operating campaign to restock finished product inventory in preparation for high-volume shipments.
The focus is on preparing for high-volume shipments, with large breakbulk shipments planned for ex-China markets in the September 2025 quarter to meet demand and accelerate cash receipts.
Syrah says there is significant and growing demand for its natural graphite, particularly in ex-China markets, driven by global supply disruptions, including those affecting Balama.
A force majeure declaration remains in effect under the Balama Mining Agreement, pending resumption of product shipments and further review of the operating environment.
Syrah's Balama Project has recorded zero production for three straight quarters. UBS analysts (29-Apr) said they expect a return to production in the June quarter, though uncertainties resulted in the analysts retaining a Neutral rating and 30 cent target price.
Separately, Syrah's short interest has tumbled in recent months, currently 5.25% from 12.8% at the beginning of the year.
Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Syrah Resources (SYR)
Aurelia Metals provides FY26-28 outlook
[9:20 am] Aurelia Metals reaffirmed its FY25 guidance and provided targets for FY26-28 at its Investor Day meeting. The company operates gold and base metal two mines, has two processing facilities, and its advancing two high-grade development projects, all located in NSW.
FY26: Gold production 35-45koz, Copper 3-4kt, Zinc 24-32kt and Lead 14-22Kt, total capex (sustaining, growth and exploration) between $123-153m
Gold in-line with Macquarie estimates, copper miss vs. 5kt ests, zinc in-line, lead a sizeable miss vs. 24kt estimates
FY27-28 outlook: Gold production to peak in FY27 and slip in FY28, while copper, zinc and lead production to steadily increase
Overall production guidances are mixed vs. Macquarie forecasts (as at 23 April). Though FY26 capex midpoint of $138 million is ahead of $112 million forecasts.
Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Aurelia Metals (AMI)
KMD sales momentum turns negative
[9:05 am] Kathmandu owner KMD Brands has reported waning sales momentum in the second half of FY25, with group sales falling 1.9% in the period from February to May after growing 0.5% in the first half.
The company attributed the decline to weather volatility, noting that "Kathmandu weekly sales have shown marked volatility over the past four months" with unseasonably warm weather in Australia materially impacting its insulation product category.
However, recent cooler conditions have provided a boost, with the first 17 days of June delivering 13.2% year-on-year sales growth.
CEO Brent Scrimshaw acknowledged the challenging conditions, saying the sales volatility was "frustrating" but that unseasonably warm weather—including Victoria's warmest autumn on record—was largely to blame. He pointed to Kathmandu's recent sales improvement and strong online momentum as evidence of the brand's health and future growth potential.
Separately, KMD flagged that US tariffs will impact FY25 EBITDA by approximately $1 million, with net debt expected to reach around $70 million.
Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: KMD Brands (KMD)
US economic data starting to turn lower
[9:00 am] The Citi Economic Surprise Index dropped to its lowest level in nine months, reflecting weaker-than-expected economic data, including:
Housing Starts Concern: Recent housing starts data suggests a potential decline toward the 1 million level, which some economists view as a recession signal.
Retail Sales Weakness: May core retail sales showed pockets of weakness, particularly in restaurant and building supplies sectors.
Despite deteriorating data, sentiment is showing signs of improvement. The Goldman Sachs Social Media Economic Sentiment Index surged to a record high since 2018, indicating improved public sentiment despite economic data. Though the investment bank flagged several economic cracks, including Lululemon earnings miss, weaker-than-expected retail sales data, industrial production, and JetBlue’s cautious outlook on flight and cost cuts.
Fed holds interest rates steady
[8:55 am] The Fed held interest rates steady for a fourth straight meeting, in-line with market expectations. Here are some of the key takeaways from its June Summary of Economic Projections:
Median dot plot still forecasts two 25 bp rate cuts by year-end
Median interest rate for 2026 was 3.6%, up from 3.4% in March's projection
Median interest rate for 2027 is forecasted at 3.4%, up from 3.1% in March's projection
Overall, the Fed's interest rate expectations was relatively unchanged, with a slight hawkishness to 2026-27
US 2025 GDP forecast lowered to 1.4% from 1.7%
US 2025 inflation expectations increased to 3.0% from 2.7%
US unemployment to rise to 4.5% by year-end, up from 4.4% in March projection
Fed removed a line flagging risks of higher unemployment and inflation, now saying "the unemployment remains low" vs. prior "has stabilised at a low level"
What's driving stocks?
[8:35 am] There were several big catalysts at play, all of which turned out to be relatively non-events (or a work in progress).
Iran and Israel enter a sixth day of attacks, though no major escalation from prior developments
Markets remain focused on whether or not the US will get involved in the conflict
Fed kept rates on hold, with economic forecasts guiding to two rate cuts by year-end
Fed's forecasts for 2026-27 pointed to slightly hawkish rate expectations
No major tariff/trade deals out of the G7 meeting
