ASX 200 Live Today - Thursday, 16th October

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Thursday, October 16. We’re excited to trial this new format. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. Today's live blog will wrap up around 2:00 pm AEDT. Be sure to refresh manually for the latest updates — and let us know how we can make it even better.

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ASX 200 at all-time highs

[2:20 pm] That's a wrap. The ASX 200 is on track to close at fresh all-time highs, as the weaker-than-expected jobs report bolstered November rate cut expectations.

"While the upcoming inflation reading on 29/10 is still very important, we continue to see two more rate cuts this cycle (in November 2025 and February 2026)," said AMP Economist My Bui.

The Aussie 10-year slipped 7 bps on the news, on the verge of breaking the recent trading range.

Australia 10-year government bond yield (Source: TradingView)

Overall, the market welcomes the prospect of a November rate cut as well as the goldilocks conditions (where things are not too hot, not too cold).

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Real estate leads strong sector growth across the ASX

[1:50 pm] It's been a good day for most of the ASX, but none more so than real estate after the shock unemployment data today almost doubled the chance of an RBA rate cut in November.

Aspen Group (up 5.92%), Mirvac Group (up 3.23%), Stockland (up 3.46%) and Goodman Group (up 3.28%) are the most notable movers.

By Tom Stelzer

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The small caps surging today

[1:37 pm] It's been a bumper day for these two ASX small caps:

• Core Lithium: The lithium miner is up 17.4% to $0.14 a share after it announced it had issued 198,125,292 shares at a price of $0.105 a share to institutional investors. Originally announced back in August, the issuance is meant to strengthen Core's financial position and expand its market presence.

• Mayne Pharma Group: The specialist pharmaceutical company is now up 11.22% after a NSW court enforced the Cosette takeover to go ahead.

By Tom Stelzer

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Bond yields down on employment figures

[1:18 pm] 10-year Australian government bond yields have dropped to their lowest level since July and currently sit at 4.174%, after the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.5% for September.

The print has driven up market expectations of an RBA rate cut, with money markets now giving a 70% chance of a November cut, up from 39% earlier today.

By Tom Stelzer

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Bougainville booming

[1:05 pm] We mentioned earlier today that Bougainville Copper is seeking an international mining partner for its Panguna project.

It's certainly excited investors, with BOC shares now up 26% for the day on expectations it could unlock one of the world's biggest copper-gold deposits.

By Tom Stelzer

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ASX 200 rallies on weak employment data

[11:55 am] The ASX 200 was up around 0.55% heading into the unemployment print, now up 0.94%. Here are some of the key data points from the ABS:

• The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose to 4.5 per cent in September, up from a revised 4.3 per cent in August

• "This is the highest seasonally adjusted unemployment rate recorded since November 2021," said ABS Head of Labour Statistics, Sean Crick

• A rise in both males and females seeking work contributed to the rise in the number of unemployed people in September. The number of unemployed males rose by 24,000 to 370,000, while the number of unemployed females rose by 10,000 to 314,000

What does this all mean? The RBA's probably going to have to cut rates.

S&P/ASX 200 intraday chart (Source: TradingView)

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Top ASX 200 gainers and losers at noon

[11:50 am] AMP is surging off the back of its quarterly update (maybe a good read through for Hub24?). A few data centre names like Infratil and Goodman Group also rallying off company-specific and sector-related names (Microsoft, Blackrock US$40bn data centre deal overnight).

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Analysts are lovin' Jumbo Interactive

[11:48 am] Jumbo Interactive has rallied more than 20% since Wednesday. Here's what analysts are thinking about its acquisition of UK-based Dream Car Giveaways (DCG).

• E&P raised target to $17.85, maintains Positive: Acquisition seen as a calculated but positive risk, integration a key near-term execution challenge, broader M&A strategy credible, earnings uplift expected from DCG inclusion.

• Morgan Stanley raised target to $16.80, maintains Overweight: Acquisition exceeded expectations, improved capital allocation discipline recognised, integration success essential, potential UK regulation tightening a key watch point, cross-pollination benefits across digital platforms expected.

• JPMorgan raised target to $14.00, upgrades to Overweight from Neutral: DCG reduces concentration in domestic lottery revenues, B2C expansion strategically valuable, SaaS contracts underappreciated, execution risk present but more controlled, capital flexibility supports offshore expansion.

• Macquarie maintained target $13.90, maintains Outperform: Diversification away from reseller agreements well received, increased leverage considered prudent, UK market consolidation a major opportunity, management expected to offset regulatory uncertainty, dividend payout under review.

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Analyst take on Bank of Queensland

[11:05 am] Very volatile session for Bank of Queensland on Wednesday, after its FY25 results slightly exceeded market expectations (cash NPAT, NIM and dividend). Though management flagged a softer FY26.

The stock rallied as much as 4.4% in early trade, but finished the session up just 1.40%. Here's what brokers are thinking:

• Morgan Stanley raised target to $6.80, maintains Equal-Weight: Sound margin management supported result quality, FY26 revenue guidance viewed as conservative, cost savings encouraging but amortisation a headwind, dividend likely to remain high despite payout pressure.

• JPMorgan lowered target to $6.10, maintains Underweight: Result marginally beat expectations, dividend increase seen as misaligned with outlook, margin strength driven by one-offs and not sustainable, cost guidance reset reflects near-term transformation drag.

• UBS raised target to $6.75, maintains Sell: Revenue and earnings modestly upgraded post result, NIM improvements reliant on portfolio rebalancing, structural ROE gap remains despite strategic pivot, mortgages continue to face structural impediment to profit given size and scale.

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Analyst take on Evolution Mining

[11:02 am] Evolution Mining shares slipped 2.9% on Wednesday after its first quarter FY26 production report missed market expectations. Weather disruptions and maintenance at Cowal and Ernest Henry weighed on volumes, though management reaffirmed FY guidance, which places pressure on the second half.

• Jarden raised target to $6.70, maintains Underweight: Production miss offset by record operating cash flow, improving balance sheet, and positive execution from Mungari expansion; current price reflects ~$3,700/oz long-term gold price.

• JPMorgan downgraded to Neutral, target $11.00: Operational disruptions softened output, project timelines unchanged, declining gearing supports future capital returns; downgrade driven by valuation concerns.

• Macquarie maintained Underperform, target $7.60: Q1 production miss due to wet weather and shutdowns, balance sheet strengthened with net debt reduction, FY26 guidance reaffirmed, continues to trade at a premium to peers.

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ASX 200 eyes record levels

[10:57 am] The S&P/ASX 200 is up 0.24% in early trade, eyeing a potential record close. The previous record close was 9,019 on 21 August.

Breadth is slightly negative, with 127 constituents (64%) trading lower. The weakness from most sectors is being offset by a jump in REITs, banks (notably Macquarie up 3.7%) and miners (especially gold miners).

ASX 200 sector performance (Source: Market Index)

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Paladin Energy dips on oversubscribed SPP

[10:21 am] Paladin Energy dipped as much as 4.7% in early trade after the company announced a massively oversubscribed share purchase plan.

The company received applications totalling over $138 million and elected to take up $100 million (vs. original raise amount of $20 million).

Under the SPP, 13.7 million new shares will be issued on 16 October and available for trading on Friday, 17 October. This could drive some selling pressure as the new shares had an issue price of $7.25 vs. current share price of $9.61.

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Jumbo Interactive surges for a second day

[10:14 am] Jumbo Interactive up 9.0% in early trade, and now up almost 20% in the last two sessions. The market is really waking up to the earnings accretion of yesterday's announcement. As I noted earlier:

In a nutshell: Takeover price values DCG at a fair 6.5x adjusted EBITDA valuation and expected to deliver double-digit EPS accretion in the first 12 months. It would appear that the market likes the valuation and bolt-on growth.

Citi and Bell Potter both raised their target prices by 2-3% this morning, to $11.80 and $11.85 respectively.

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AMP rallies to six-year high

[10:10 am] AMP is up 11.6% in early trade, pushing levels not seen since early 2019.

The company provided a September quarter trading update this morning, noting total assets under management up 3.6% to $159.5 million. No consensus figures out there f

or the quarterly, but I did find a Macquarie note (1-Oct) which forecast 2H25 total AUM of $156 billion. Might imply AUM inflows are performing well-above analyst expectations.

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Gold and silver, truly unstoppable

[9:53 am] Gold prices up another 1.55% overnight to a record US$4,206/oz, and currently up 0.18% in early trade to US$4,214. The VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) closed 3.8% higher overnight.

Likewise, silver prices rallied 3.1% to US$53.0/oz, a fresh all-time high and the Global X Silver Miners ETF also gained 3.9%, closing at the highest levels since May 2011.

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Santos lowers FY26 guidance

[9:48 am] Not a good look for Santos, with its September quarter numbers broadly below market expectations, alongside a downgrade to 2025 guidance.

For the September quarter, Santos reported:

• Production of 21.3 mmboe vs. 21.7 mmboe ests (1.8% miss)

• Sales volume of 21.5 mmboe vs. 22.1 mmboe ests (2.7% miss)

• Sales revenue of $1.13 billion vs. $1.15 billion ests (1.7% miss)

• Realised LNG price of $11.05/mmbtu vs. $11.00/mmbtu ests (0.5% beat)

While production and sales was lowered for 2025:

• FY production guidance of 89–91 mmboe vs. prior 90–95 and 91.8 ests (midpoint 2.0% below consensus)

• FY sales volume guidance of 93–95 mmboe vs. prior 92–99 and FactSet 97.7 (midpoint 3.8% below consensus)

• Sustaining capex of $1.2–1.3 billion, unchanged

• Major projects capex of $1.2–1.3 billion, unchanged

• Unit production costs of $7.00–7.40/boe, unchanged

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ARB Corp AGM takeaways

[9:44 am] ARB Corp's AGM noted Q1 FY26 gross margins tracking at the lower exit rate from 2H25, whilst the company navigates ongoing FX headwinds and mixed segment performance.

• The aftermarket business delivered a solid performance despite challenging conditions, with a healthy order book and intake maintained even as sales of core ARB models weakened.

• The export business continues trending positively and the US operations performed well, extending the strong momentum from 2H25.

• The ORW/4WP business is outperforming expectations with consistent monthly profitability achieved throughout Q1 FY26, marking a notable turnaround for the previously troubled acquisition.

• OEM sales are forecast to decline in 1H26 before returning to growth in 2H26, resulting in only a small full-year revenue increase. The company has further reduced inventory in 1Q26, generating positive cash flows to offset the continuing margin pressure from foreign exchange headwinds.

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Stockland reaffirms FY26 guidance

[9:42 am] Stockland reaffirmed its FY26 guidance at its first-quarter trading update, including:

• FFO guidance of 36-37 cents per share

• DPS of 25.2 cents per share

• MPC targeting settlements of 7,500-8,500 lots and development operating profit margin in the low 20% range

• LLC targeting settlements of 700-800 homes, with similar operating profit margins

Source: Stockland (SGP) announcement

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Mayne Pharma confirms court judgement

[9:39 am] Mayne Pharma confirmed the NSW court ruling which enforces the Cosette takeover and expects the scheme to become effective on 23 October.

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Paladin Energy completes SSP, raising 5x the original amount

[9:34 am] Paladin Energy completed its share purchase plan, raising $100 million at $7.25 per share (vs. last close of $9.93).

The company raised $300 million at $7.25 per share on 17 September, with proceeds used to advance the development of the Patterson Lake South Project towards a final investment decision.

The SSP originally sought to raise up to $20 million, but the company received applications totalling over $138 million.

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AMP reports Q3 update

[9:31 am] AMP issued a third quarter 2025 cashflow and business update, with key numbers including:

• Total AUM up 3.6% to $159.5 billion (2Q25: $153.9bn)

• Platforms net cashflows up 60.0% to $1.2 billion (3Q24: $750m

• Platforms AUM up 4.4% to $86.9 billion (2Q25: $83.2bn)

• Superannuation & Investments net cash outflow improved 27.8% to -$241m (3Q24: -$334m)

• Superannuation & Investments AUM up 3.4% to $60.5 billion (2Q25: $58.5bn)

• AMP Bank total loan book up 1.3% to $23.8 billion (2Q25: $23.5bn)

• AMP Bank total deposits up 1.5% to $20.8 billion (2Q25: $20.5bn)

No consensus numbers for the Q3 numbers. However, Macquarie forecasts (1-Oct) had 2H25 total AUM of $156 billion. So possibly a strong outcome here?

Source: AMP (AMP) announcement

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Meeka Metals reports drilling results

[9:25 am] Meeka is one of the market's newest gold producers, having recorded its first gold pour back in July 2025. Some solid assay highlights from initial drilling results from northeastern flank of Turnberry, which forms part of its flagship Murchison Gold Project.

• 63m @ 1.02g/t Au from 90m

• 48m @ 1.26g/t Au from 117m

• 25m @ 1.88g/t Au from 38m

"These strong results highlight potential to grow the Resource and Reserves, and will likely extend the Stage 1 open pits beyond the initial ~2 years previously planned. The higher-grade zones in fresh rock below the pit are also likely to grow underground production," the company said in an announcement.

Source: Meeka Metals (MEK) announcement

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Westpac flags items impacting FY25 results

[9:15 am] Westpac has announced a $273 million pre-tax restructuring charge under its Fit for Growth Program, with the expense to take a hit on it FY25 results.

Productivity benefits are expected to match the restructuring costs, with only modest benefits delivered in FY25 and the majority flowing through in FY26 and FY27. The full charge will be reported within Group Businesses rather than spread across operating segments.

The bank is changing its disclosure approach by no longer pre-releasing hedging Notable Items in future periods. FY25 reported net profit will be reduced by $56 million from hedging Notable Items (down from $123 million in FY24), with a new "Net profit excluding Notable Items" measure comparable to previous "cash earnings" to be included in annual reporting.

Source: Westpac (WBC) announcement

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Cosette cannot terminate Mayne Pharma takeover, says NSW court

[9:12 am] The Supreme Court of NSW has ruled that US pharmaceutical giant Cosette cannot terminate its $672 million takeover of Mayne Pharma, with the final decision now resting with FIRB.

Justice Ashley Black rejected Cosette's claim that Mayne withheld material financial information constituting a "material adverse change," upholding the original $7.40 per share offer made in February despite Cosette's termination attempt in June following Mayne's April earnings downgrade.

Mayne shares have fallen approximately 20% since the termination notice to $5.66, reflecting market skepticism about the deal's completion. The company posted a $93.8 million annual net loss in August and notably refused to take questions from analysts or investors during that announcement.

Source: AFR

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Infratil confirms new AI data centre contract

[9:08 am] Infratil's CDC Data Centres has secured a new AI data centre partnership with Firmus Technologies and NVIDIA, underpinned by approximately 40MW of capacity for AI Factory capability at a Melbourne site starting April 2026.

The deal marks "another significant milestone" as CDC experiences surging demand for its data center campuses, with the company positioned to leverage its fast-growing footprint of existing and planned facilities to accommodate Firmus' expansion plans.

Infratil will provide more details on CDC's progress at its half-year results on Thursday, 13 November.

NZX-listed Infratil shares are up 2.1%.

Source: Infratil (IFT) announcement

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US-China trade tensions continue to escalate

[9:06 am] US-China trade tensions escalated sharply with Treasury Secretary Bessent delivering aggressive rhetoric while simultaneously floating potential negotiations around rare earth export restrictions. Some of the notable comments being thrown around include:

• USTR Greer characterised China's new rare earth export restrictions as a "global supply chain power grab" that violates US-China trade agreements.

• Bessent went further by calling Chinese Vice Commerce Minister Li Chenggang "unhinged" and warning China can't be trusted on supply chain matters.

• Bessent explicitly rejected reports that Beijing is betting on Trump's stock market sensitivity to force negotiations, stating the US won't negotiate just because markets are falling.

• He also announced plans to set price floors across multiple industries to combat alleged Chinese market manipulation.

• Despite the hawkish tone, Bessent proposed a potential deal involving a longer pause on high US tariffs in exchange for Beijing delaying its rare earth restrictions, suggesting negotiations could occur within weeks even as uncertainty remains about whether Trump will meet Xi at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in South Korea later this month.

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BlackRock, MGX make $40 billion bet on AI boom

[9:04 am] BlackRock's Global Infrastructure Partners has agreed to acquire Aligned Data Centers for US$40 billion in the largest-ever data centre transaction, marking a massive bet on AI infrastructure amid Wall Street's race to capitalise on the AI boom.

The deal is the first major transaction for BlackRock's AI partnership established with Microsoft, Nvidia, and MGX, which targets $100 billion in eventual investments. The full consortium includes the Kuwait Investment Authority and Singapore's Temasek, reflecting unprecedented institutional appetite for AI infrastructure assets.

Aligned operates 50 campuses and 78 data centreacross the US and South America with just over 600 megawatts live and another 700 megawatts under construction, positioning it as a "decent-sized operation" with estimated annual revenue of US$1.6 billion rising to US$3.4 billion once construction completes.

Source: Bloomberg

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Metallium announces rare earth recovery breakthrough

[9:00 am] Rice University has demonstrated a breakthrough method for recovering rare earth elements from end-of-life magnets using Flash Joule Heating technology, which Metallium holds exclusive commercialisation rights to and plans to scale up industrially.

Metallium describes the technology as "cleaner, faster and vastly more efficient" than existing methods, representing a potential paradigm shift for critical metals supply chains given the environmental and cost advantages over traditional acid-based recovery processes.

The company intends to adapt the Rice University findings to its pilot-scale prototype system in Texas as part of broader plans to build a national network of clean-tech metal recovery facilities anchored in the United States, leveraging its exclusive licensing position.

Source: Metallium (MTM)

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Jumbo Interactive conference call highlights

[8:56 am] Jumbo Interactive shares surged 9.2% on Wednesday after announcing the acquisition of UK prize draw operator Dream Car Giveaways (DCG) for $109.9 million.

In a nutshell: Takeover price values DCG at a fair 6.5x adjusted EBITDA valuation and expected to deliver double-digit EPS accretion in the first 12 months. It would appear that the market likes the valuation and bolt-on growth.

Jumbo hosted an analyst and investor briefing yesterday, and these were the key takeaways:

• DCG acquisition is expected to deliver immediate value with double-digit EPS accretion in FY 2026, supported by strong underlying EBITDA of $14.3-14.9 million over 8.5 months of contribution.

• DCG's business is projected to grow rapidly with annualised underlying EBITDA growth of 20-25% in FY26, while its active customer base is expected to expand strongly by leveraging Jumbo's existing digital infrastructure and tools.

• Jumbo is maintaining an active capital management strategy, conducting a dividend payout ratio review by the November 11 AGM (with changes from 1H 2026) and continuing opportunistic share buybacks, while keeping capacity for further M&A in 2025.

• The UK regulatory environment is shifting in favor of larger operators like DCG, with anticipated changes in the prize draw market expected to provide competitive advantages as the integration progresses through the December 2026 earn-out period.

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Bougainville Copper seeks mining partner

[8:49 am] Bougainville Copper is actively pursuing an international mining partner for its Panguna project, with discussions underway across multiple potential parties. The process has the knowledge and endorsement of the Autonomous Bougainville Government, providing official backing for the partnership search.

The Panguna project is genuinely one of the world's largest untapped copper-gold deposits and represents an absolutely massive asset. The mine holds an estimated one billion tonnes of copper ore and 12 million ounces of gold. Though the project has been shut since 1989, following a civil conflict that killed up to 20,000 people.

Source: Bougainville Copper (BOC)

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Generation Development Group $74 million block trade on offer

[8:47 am] Major shareholders are exiting Generation Development Group after extraordinary gains, as the company's valuation draws increasing skepticism from short sellers, according to the AFR.

• M.H. Carnegie Nominees sold $80 million in shares at a 2.9% discount ($7.38), dropping below the 5% substantial shareholder threshold after GDG shares surged 120% this year and rose from under 70 cents to $7.60 over five years.

• Wilson Asset Management and River Capital have also been selling down positions in 2024, cementing substantial profits from the rally.

• Short interest has spiked dramatically to 4.3% from less than 1% in mid-August, suggesting growing market skepticism about the $2.9 billion company's valuation.

Source: AFR

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Xero completes Melio acquisition

[8:42 am] Going to start with reviewing some of the after-market close announcements from Wednesday (pretty bad habit of mine to miss these – E.g. Telix had a quarterly revenue update and FY revenue upgrade yesterday that we missed, the stock rallied massively).

Xero completed the acquisition of Melio (deal announced 25-Jun). The company says Melio has traded in-line with expectations through the first half of FY26, and expects to incur transaction costs of NZ$52 million and non-cash FX gain of $78 million.

Xero has not been the same since announcing the acquisition, struggling to return to highs and dramatically underperforming the broader Tech Index.

Analysts largely viewed the transaction as strategically aligned with management's ambition to scale int he US, though concerned about the high valuation and earnings dilution.

Xero vs. S&P/ASX 200 Technology Index (Source: TradingView)

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Good morning!

[8:32 am] ASX 200 futures are up 5 pts (+0.05%) as of 8:30 am AEDT.

The overnight session in a nutshell:

• Major US benchmarks mostly higher, with S&P 500 up 0.40% but still down 1.0% since the US-China trade escalation last Friday

• Softness in sectors like Materials (-0.49%), Industrials (-0.47%) and Energy (-0.08%) resulted in the Dow trading flat while the Equal-weight S&P 500 (+0.20%) underperformed the official benchmark by 20 bps

• A busy session for headlines and news, with ratcheting up of US-China trade tensions

• Mostly positive takeaways and share price reactions for Q3 reporters, including Bank of America (+4.3%), ASML (+2.7%) and LVMH (+7.1%)

• BlackRock, Microsoft and Nvidia strike data centre deal for nearly 80 facilities worth $40 billion

If you’re new to the blog – catch up quick via today’s Morning Wrap.