ASX 200 Live Today - Thursday, 12th November

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Thursday, November 12. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. We'll be wrapping the blog up around 2:00 pm AEDT.

ASX Live is independent coverage from our newsroom, proudly supported by CommSec, helping Australians invest smarter. Listen to the CommSec Market Update podcast

Supported by · How we work with sponsors

Rio Tinto shortlists five bidders for $7bn power assets

[9:03 am] Rio Tinto has shortlisted five bidders for its Pilbara and Canadian energy infrastructure, with binding offers due in the first week of December for assets expected to fetch at least $7 billion, the AFR reports.

• Blackstone and Ares Management are the only bidders seeking the whole portfolio, with all known parties bidding on their own

• Brookfield is focused on the Canadian assets, which include the Kemano Generating Station and other infrastructure behind Rio’s Canadian iron ore operations

• BlackRock-owned Global Infrastructure Partners and IFM Investors are targeting the Australian assets, including more than 500MW of power plants supplying Rio’s Pilbara iron ore operations

• Apollo and KKR are understood to have exited the process

• Rio told shareholders last year it would free up US$5–10bn of capital for higher-return opportunities, and has since agreed to sell its Dampier desalination plant and sold land in British Columbia

Source: AFR

US dollar breaks out to highest since April 2025

[9:01 am] The US dollar index rose 0.68% overnight to 102.91, breaking out of its recent trading range to trade at the highest since April 2025. A stronger US dollar tends to put downward pressure on both equity and commodity markets.

US Dollar Index (Source: TradingView)

LME aluminium faces biggest squeeze in decades

[8:55 am] LME aluminium spot prices hit a record premium to futures, as warehouse stocks fell to their lowest since 1990 and two traders came to control most of the remaining metal.

• Spot aluminium traded US$147 a tonne above three-month futures, the highest in more than 30 years of data, after sitting at a discount in mid-October

• Two entities held long positions equal to 60–80% of readily available LME stocks as of Monday

• Middle East war disruptions, China’s production cap and trade barriers are limiting supply, while surging Indonesian output isn’t yet registered for LME delivery

• The futures curve is in backwardation out to 2028, meaning near-dated metal costs more than later contracts

• All other LME base metals rose, with copper up 1% to US$13,817 a tonne

Source: Bloomberg

US 2-year yield surges after hot CPI

[8:54 am] The US Treasury market was shut for Veterans Day, but the 2-year yield has still soared 27 bps int he past three sessions, with 18 bps coming after Tuesday's hotter-than-expected October CPI print.

• Headline CPI rose 0.4% in October vs 0.3% ests, while core CPI rose 0.3% vs 0.2% ests, with no annual figures published because data from October 2025 is missing due to the government shutdown

• Food prices rose 0.5% after a flat September, while energy slowed to 0.7% from 5.2%

So just as yields started to roll over from late-September peaks (2-year down 46 bps between 28-Sep and 5-Nov), the short-end is now experiencing a vertical bounce on more hawkish Fed expectations.

US 2-year yield chart (Source: TradingView)

Wall Street lifts Fed hike bets after third hot inflation print

[8:50 am] Wall Street economists are penciling in more Fed rate hikes after a third straight month of hot inflation data, with Bank of America calling October’s hold a policy mistake.

• Fed governor Christopher Waller has put a 50bp hike on the table for December

• BofA is sticking with a 25bp December hike but sees a rising risk of another in January rather than March, saying the Fed is falling behind the curve

• Goldman Sachs’ David Mericle forecasts a third hike in March, saying October’s upside surprises can’t be fully explained by the Iran war energy shock

• JPMorgan Asset Management’s David Kelly said a 50bp hike next month is not needed

• The US 10-year Treasury yield was little changed at 4.99% with cash trading shut for Veterans Day, while the US dollar hit its highest since May 2025

Oil rebounds as Iran rejects giving up enriched uranium

[8:46 am] Oil snapped a two-day losing streak overnight after a senior Iranian official rejected giving up enriched uranium, a sign US-Iran peace talks remain stalled.

• Brent up 0.7% to US$92.67

• Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi asked the UN and its nuclear watchdog to condemn a US reward of up to US$20m for information on Tehran’s nuclear program

• The US said Iran has enriched uranium to 60% and that the watchdog’s lack of access makes the program’s status hard to assess

• European gas futures rose 2.4% to €86.78/MWh as tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz continued and Iran denied ongoing talks with the US

• The war has taken nearly a fifth of global LNG exports off the market, and Poland’s Orlen ended a long-term contract with QatarEnergy over missed deliveries

Brent crude chart (Source: TradingView)

European stocks hit record high as energy and tech rebound

[8:46 am] The Stoxx 600 closed at a record high above its August peak, as Europe’s light tech weighting and falling oil prices shielded it from the AI selloff.

• The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.7% to 663.05 and is up 2.7% since the US midterms, vs a 0.5% gain for the S&P 500

• Tech makes up less than 9% of the Stoxx 600, vs 42% of the S&P 500

• Societe Generale said the post-midterms rally looks stretched, as investors reprice geopolitical risk and move beyond the AI trade

Source: Bloomberg

Congress threatens to subpoena Nvidia’s Jensen Huang

[8:45 am] Two senior House Republicans said they are ready to subpoena Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang over his affair with an alleged Chinese spy, after the scandal wiped about US$430 billion off the chipmaker’s value in two sessions.

• China committee chair John Moolenaar gave Huang until the end of Wednesday to agree to a closed-door briefing, and Foreign Affairs chair Brian Mast said a subpoena is ready if he doesn’t respond

• Alice Huang was an executive at Megaspeed, Nvidia’s largest Southeast Asian customer, which is under US investigation over possible chip smuggling. Both companies deny wrongdoing

• Nvidia’s board is investigating whether Huang was the target of a foreign intelligence effort, and Republican Senator Kevin Cramer has called for him to resign

• Baird downgraded Nvidia to neutral and cut its price target to US$200 from US$500, while Morgan Stanley removed it as a Top Pick

• The shares rose ~3% overnight after falling ~10% over the previous two days

• Lawmakers are pushing to add chip export controls to defence legislation that must pass by year-end, with Moolenaar saying Nvidia has lost credibility in the debate

Anthropic’s IPO draws multiple times the demand

[8:45 am] Anthropic’s IPO is several times oversubscribed and on track to be the biggest listing ever, though history shows packed order books have been a poor guide to returns a year out.

• Anthropic and its co-founders are raising up to about US$90bn at a targeted US$1.4tn valuation

• Pricing is expected on 18 November with trading as soon as 19 November, and the FT reported bankers expect to price above the US$70–78 range, lifting the valuation to US$1.5tn or more

• Of 12 oversubscribed IPOs tracked by Yahoo Finance, Arm was up 147% a year after its first trade, while Facebook fell 39% and Rivian 69%

• Since 1980, US IPOs priced above their range have gained 50% on day one on average, vs 12% within the range and 3% below, according to University of Florida’s Jay Ritter

• IPOs from 1980 to 2024 returned about 6% in their first year on average, vs about 11% for similar-sized companies

Source: Yahoo Finance

Analysts cut 2027 S&P 500 profit forecasts after blowout quarter

[8:45 am] Wall Street analysts have trimmed 2027 S&P 500 profit forecasts for four straight weeks, as fears that Democrats’ midterm sweep will delay AI spending outweigh a blowout third-quarter season.

• S&P 500 profits are now forecast to grow 20% in 2027, down from 30% growth expected this year, according to Bloomberg Intelligence

• 3Q EPS growth reached 33%, up from 32% in 2Q, with every sector beating pre-season expectations and more than 80% of the index reported

• BofA said a 20% cut to AI capex could reduce S&P 500 EPS by up to 8%, and analyst Vivek Arya said estimates could be cut further in 1Q27 if policy changes hit spending

• Citi’s Atif Malik said permitting delays, local opposition to data centres and caution around neoclouds may slow new developments

• Nvidia reports next week, with Malik saying the main risk is 2028 order visibility, as 2027 demand appears largely committed

• Consumer company estimates for 2027 have lagged the broader market, with BofA saying the boost from tariff refunds has mostly faded and Walmart and Target due next week

Source: Bloomberg

Nasdaq rallies as CoreWeave revives the AI trade

[8:43 am] The Nasdaq 100 jumped 2.0% overnight and is on track for its best week since May, after CoreWeave’s upbeat outlook and a US$10 billion revenue quarter from OpenAI eased fears over AI spending.

• The S&P 500 rose 1.3% to 7,619 and the Dow added 0.5% to 52,491

• The rebound follows a 4.4% plunge last Thursday, the S&P 500’s biggest one-day fall since the 2025 trade war, on fears Democrats’ midterm sweep will bring tougher AI regulation

• CoreWeave jumped 24.7% after the AI cloud provider said it expects an adjusted profit in 1H28, with peers Nebius up 15.4% and Applied Digital up 7.4%

• The Philadelphia Semiconductor index rose 5.7% to its highest close since 3 November, with every member higher

• Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson said about 95% of the correction has already happened and he is confident the AI build-out will continue

Good morning!

[8:29 am] ASX 200 futures are down 33 pts (-0.36%). Here's what happened overnight:

• A chip-led rebound lifted Wall Street as CoreWeave's upbeat outlook revived the AI trade, while Microsoft slipped on Anthropic's push into office software

  • S&P 500 (+1.31%), now up 3.6% in the last four sessions

  • Nasdaq (+1.60%), up 4.7% in the last four sessions, recovering almost the entirety of the 5-Nov selloff where it tumbled 5.5%

  • Equal-weight S&P 500 (+0.81%) is within 0.3% of all-time highs

  • Dow (+0.49%), Russell 2000 (+0.88%)

• Rate-hike nerves lingered with US cash bonds shut for Veterans Day, leaving the 10-year yield near 5% and economists adding to Fed hike calls

• Oil snapped a two-day slide as US-Iran peace efforts showed little progress, while European shares closed at a record