ASX 200 Live Today - Monday, 7th September

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Monday, September 7. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. We'll be wrapping the blog up around 2:00 pm AEST. Let us know how we can make it even better.

Mader approves on-market buy-back of up to $30m

[9:21 am] Mader Group has added a buy-back to its capital management toolkit, citing a share price the Board views as below underlying value.

• Board approved an on-market buy-back of up to $30m, with shares to be acquired where the Board considers the prevailing price does not reflect the underlying value and long-term prospects of the business

• Program is discretionary, with timing and volume dependent on market conditions, the share price, capital requirements and other investment opportunities, and can be varied, suspended or terminated at any time

• Executive Chairman and Founder Luke Mader said the buy-back gives another tool to allocate capital efficiently without compromising the ability to fund growth ambitions

Mader shares have tanked 18.5% year-to-date, trading back at June 2025 levels. The company's FY26 result reads well at face value, though the stock tumbled 8.4% on the day (25-Aug).

• Revenue up 15% to $1,001.1m, in line with market guidance and completing the five-year plan set by the Board in 2021

• NPAT up 15% to $65.4m, representing a five-year NPAT CAGR of 28%

• Free cash flow up 35% to $57.5m and net cash of $35.7m, meeting the Group's medium-term net cash target

• No dividend declared for FY26, with the Board retaining capital to fund long-term growth initiatives

• FY27 guidance of at least $1.13bn revenue (+13%) and at least $72.5m NPAT (+11%), with NPAT to absorb $3m to $4m of spending on growth initiatives and an expanded long-term incentive program, and growth capex of $30m to $35m

Company page: Mader Group (MAD)

Ingenia rejects $4.75 per security bid from Warburg Pincus

[9:18 am] Ingenia Communities Group has knocked back an unsolicited approach from the US private equity firm, saying the price substantially undervalues the group.

• Warburg Pincus proposed acquiring 100% of Ingenia via a scheme of arrangement at $4.75 cash per security, on an unsolicited, conditional and non-binding basis

• Board determined the proposal substantially undervalues Ingenia and is not in the best interests of security holders, after taking advice from financial advisers and external legal counsel

• Proposal was conditional on Ingenia abandoning its proposed acquisition of Peet, alongside due diligence, documentation, regulatory approvals and a unanimous board recommendation

• Price would be reduced by any distributions paid by Ingenia prior to implementation

• Board views the Peet acquisition as an important component of strategy, securing a development pipeline expected to support growth and product delivery over time

Company page: Ingenia Communities Group (INA)

Ryan Stokes takes the chair at Southern Cross Media

[9:13 am] Southern Cross Media Group has reshuffled its board leadership following the completion of its management structure post the Seven West Media combination.

• Ryan Stokes AO appointed Non-Executive Chair effective immediately, replacing Teresa Dyson, who steps down as Chair but continues as a Non-Executive Director

• Stokes is a nominee of SGH Limited, which holds a substantial interest in the Company, and has been a Director since the Seven West Media combination completed in January 2026

• Cathy O'Connor elected Lead Independent Director by the independent Directors, with the Board citing a majority-independent Board and Committees and independent Committee chairs as safeguards

Company page: Southern Cross Media Group (SXL)

Viridis places first major equipment order for Colossus

[9:11 am] Viridis Mining and Minerals has awarded the residue pressure filtration package for its Colossus Rare Earth Project, marking its shift from development into execution.

• Order awarded to Dewater Filter Press Srl covering design, manufacture, fabrication, testing and supply of the residue filtration package, which handles solid-liquid separation of processed clay before it returns for mine rehabilitation

• Dewater selected after a 12-month competitive tender involving leading global suppliers, with test work on Colossus residue confirming equipment sizing and supporting performance guarantees on throughput and final residue moisture

• Long-lead item sits on the project's critical path with a manufacturing period of roughly 12 months, supporting the targeted first production in 2028

• Order structured to limit pre-FID exposure through staged payment milestones and a contractual hold point ahead of full notice to proceed

• Only three significant rare earth mines operate outside China

  and non-Chinese heavy rare earth production remains negligible at scale, positioning Colossus among a small group of emerging producers of light and heavy rare earths

Company page: Viridis Mining and Minerals (VMM)

Banks line up behind a September RBA hike

[9:06 am] Forecasts for a 29 September increase are building, with the Australian dollar pushing to four-month highs of 72 US cents.

• NAB, Deutsche Bank and UBS all expect the RBA to hike on 29 September, which would take the cash rate to 4.6%

• UBS cited inflation that is too high alongside a global growth backdrop boosted by an AI and trade cycle boom, raising the risk of broader central bank hikes

• Chalmers declined to comment on the rate path but said rate rises already in the system are adding pressure, pointing to the latest national accounts

Chinese suppliers hold back rare earth shipments to the US

[9:03 am] Access to critical minerals remains a live problem for US buyers weeks out from Xi Jinping's Washington visit, despite licences being granted.

• Some Chinese suppliers are refusing to ship rare earths to US customers even where export licences exist, with a handful stopping since Beijing sanctioned US supply chain monitor the Responsible Business Alliance in early August

• Prices near record highs for yttrium, indium phosphide and tungsten, materials used in defence, aerospace, semiconductors, medical devices and energy, with supply still tight

• US yttrium imports still around half 2024 levels despite rising this year, and some US companies have waited more than six months for mineral licences

• Japan and India face tighter approvals, with China exporting no terbium to Japan between January and August against 20 tons a year earlier, gallium down 65% and yttrium down 98%

• Rare earths are on the US planning agenda for Xi's 24 September visit, with Washington pressing Beijing on compliance with the Busan commitments while China points to FCC restrictions on Chinese tech as its own grievance

• Rhodium Group's Reva Goujon expects Beijing to loosen critical raw material controls somewhat around the summit to deflate US claims it is not upholding the truce

Not sure how material this report is, given MP Materials finished Friday up just 1.3% after rallying as much as 8.8% intraday.

Source: Reuters

Tech takes more index seats as Nike drops out of the S&P 100

[9:01 am] S&P Dow Jones Indices has confirmed its quarterly rebalance, with all changes effective before the open on 21 September.

• Bloom Energy, Illumina and Everpure join the S&P 500, replacing Molson Coors, Trade Desk and Builders FirstSource

• Nike exits the S&P 100 alongside Honeywell Aerospace, Simon Property Group and Colgate-Palmolive, though it retains its S&P 500 membership

• All four S&P 100 replacements come from information technology, with Dell, Palo Alto Networks, Arista Networks and SanDisk moving up from the broader index and SanDisk shares jumping on the news

• Nike closed at $38.40 on Friday, its weakest in 12 years, with market value near $57bn against about $264bn at the end of 2021, while the S&P 100 gained 83% over the past five years

• Bloom Energy posted July earnings more than double expectations and raised full-year guidance for a second consecutive quarter on data centre demand for its natural gas fuel cells

• S&P 500 entry now requires a market cap of at least $22.7bn plus profitability, liquidity and free-float tests, with passive flows making inclusion increasingly consequential

OPEC+ holds October quotas steady as Hormuz disruption bites

[8:59 am] The eight-nation sub-group met by video on Sunday and left production targets unchanged, in line with its roadmap to hold flat through year-end.

• Quotas unchanged for October for the seven-country group led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, following a run of symbolic increases, with the next monthly meeting on 4 October

• Quota increases continued through the war to nominally complete the reversal of the 2023 curbs, potentially giving members leeway to lift output once fighting subsides

• Restoring the remaining halted supply is complicated by deteriorated production capacity across many members since the curbs were set

• Capacity audit due at month-end to set 2027 production limits, to be considered by ministers at the full alliance meeting in late November

Source: Bloomberg

US strikes three Iranian tankers as oil posts a 8% weekly gain

[8:57 am] Washington has escalated its campaign against Iran's oil fleet, with crude and refined product prices already repricing higher through the week.

• US forces destroyed the tanker Kylo in the Gulf of Oman and permanently disabled the Downy off Kharg Island and the Stark I near Jask, in retaliation for IRGC ballistic missiles fired at a US aircraft carrier and destroyer

• CENTCOM commander Brad Cooper said the US would not hesitate to destroy Iran's limited and exposed oil fleet, describing the tankers as part of a multibillion-dollar shadow network funding the IRGC

• Brent rose 8.5% last week to US$95.84, with prices up 0.8% in early trade this morning to US$96.64

• Citi lifted its Q3 Brent forecast to US$86 from US$80 on a slower Hormuz reopening, and ANZ raised its short-term forecast to US$95 with upside risk if the conflict intensifies

• Four commodity vessels transited Hormuz on Thursday against a 10-day average of about 15, with owners avoiding the chokepoint and at-sea transfers building off Fujairah and Sohar

Fed hike odds little changed after hot jobs data

[8:50 am] The likelihood of the Fed hiking at its September meeting moved fractionally lower on the jobs report (from 59.4% to 58.3%), while year-end probabilities (below) also moved slightly in favour of one hike.

Source: CME Fedwatch Tool

Trump threatens trade halt unless the Fed cuts

[8:46 am] The president responded to the strong jobs print by escalating pressure on the Federal Reserve rather than welcoming a possible hike.

• Trump posted that he would stop trading with countries the US runs deficits with unless rates are lowered, and told the Fed board to get smart and be patriots

• He argued for 1% or half a per cent rather than 4%, claiming each point of interest costs the country $650bn

• Canada, Switzerland, Mexico and the EU named as examples, with Trump claiming no trade with Canada would save $90bn

• Trump rejected the idea that a hike would reassure a bond market worried about debt and inflation, and criticised the equity market's fall on the jobs data

• Hassett said the argument for holding steady would be pretty strong, while JD Vance has called for cuts and Chair Kevin Warsh flagged last week that hikes could soon be on the table

US payrolls surge past every estimate in August

[8:44 am] The August employment report came in well ahead of expectations, pushing investors towards pricing a Fed hike this month.

• Nonfarm payrolls of 162,000, above every estimate in a Bloomberg survey, with the unemployment rate steady at 4.1%

• June and July revised up by a net 55,000, with July's previously reported job losses revised away

• Participation rate up to 61.6%, the first improvement in almost a year, though prime-age participation was unchanged at 83.4%

• Manufacturing payrolls rose the most since 2023 and construction added the most jobs since January, while financial activities and information shed a combined 34,000 positions

• Average hourly earnings up 0.3% on July and up 3.1% year-on-year, the slowest since 2021, with average hours worked at a more than two-year high

• US 2-year yield briefly spiked 8 bps to 4.42%, the highest since August 2024, but closed the session up 3 bps to 4.37%

OpenAI launches GPT-6 Astra with cyber guardrails

[8:43 am] OpenAI has released its next-generation model to enterprise testers, framing it as an early step towards artificial general intelligence.

• GPT-6 Astra rolled out to business users in OpenAI's Daybreak program, with a version carrying added cybersecurity guardrails planned for paid ChatGPT users

• Greg Brockman said the model marks a real shift in what work can be delegated to AI, though he stopped short of declaring it AGI

• Astra reached OpenAI's critical cybersecurity threshold, meaning it can identify and develop zero-day exploits without human intervention

• Internal work paused in August to incorporate stricter safeguards after the company assessed the model's cyber capability

• Model is particularly capable at operating a computer on a user's behalf and handling longer-running tasks

• Daybreak cyber access expanded on a subsidised basis to utilities, local governments and financial institutions, plus a multi-state information-sharing initiative

Source: Bloomberg

Norway's $2.3tn fund moves to cut US Treasury exposure

[8:41 am] Norges Bank Investment Management has written to Norway's Finance Ministry proposing a material reallocation away from government bonds.

• Government subindex of bond holdings proposed to fall from 70% to 50%, a level NBIM says still provides liquidity through market turbulence

• US Treasury holdings would drop from 34.1% to 21.9%, euro area from 16.8% to 14.1%, while Japanese government bonds rise from 4.6% to 7.4%

• Non-government US fixed income lifts from 16.2% to 27.6%, including mortgage-backed securities, which NBIM argues move inversely to equities in crises

• Bond weightings would shift to market value rather than GDP, reflecting high debt loads across nearly all developed economies

• El-Erian told CNBC the size is not big, but the signal that traditional Treasury holders and buyers are becoming less reliable is very important

• Fund holds $1.65tn in equities and $592bn in fixed income, with an internal stress test finding an AI correction could wipe $740bn, or 35%, off its value

Source: CNBC

Good morning!

[8:33 am] ASX 200 futures are down 1 pt (-0.01%). Here's what happened overnight:

• Wall Street closed lower with the S&P 500 down 0.4% and the Nasdaq off 0.3%, as an August payrolls print roughly three times forecasts pushed September Fed hike odds back towards 60%

• US forces hit three Iranian oil tankers on Sunday and OPEC+ held its October output flat, capping crude's biggest weekly gain since July

• Trump escalated his pressure campaign, demanding rate cuts after the jobs beat and threatening to halt trade with countries running goods surpluses against the US