ASX 200 Live Today - Monday, 5th October

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Monday, October 5. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. We'll be wrapping the blog up around 2:00 pm AEST. Let us know how we can make it even better.

Warburg Pincus closes in on Ingenia due diligence

[8:54 am] Ingenia's board is expected to shortly grant Warburg Pincus limited due diligence after its third bid, bowing to shareholder pressure to engage.

• $5.25 per share bid is a 10% premium to Friday's close of $4.78, after earlier offers of $4.75 and $5.05 were rejected

• Warburg Pincus has been pushing the board to back its bid over the unpopular $1bn proposal to buy Peet, so far without success

• At least 30% of the register reportedly supports Warburg Pincus, despite no formal campaign for votes

• HMC Capital, which owns just under 5%, is among shareholders backing the approach

• Board recommendation remains unclear, with the bid not yet declared final

Source: AFR

GIC and Ares join race for Rio Tinto's $7bn power assets

[8:53 am] The bidder field for Rio Tinto's Pilbara and Canadian power infrastructure is growing, with Singapore's GIC and Ares Management the latest suitors.

• GIC has mandated JPMorgan to prepare a bid for both the Pilbara and Canadian assets, expected to be worth about $7bn combined

• Ares Management is working on an indicative offer and is self-advised

• Existing bidders include IFM with Macquarie Capital, KKR with RBC, and GIP, which bought BHP's WA power assets for US$2bn last year

• Non-binding indicative bids are due mid-October, with Rio yet to decide how large a stake it will retain

• Pilbara assets include about 510MW of power plants and transmission, offering stable multi-year revenue that suits debt-funded buyers

Source: AFR

Iran rules out reopening Hormuz as more tankers struck

[8:45 am] Tehran says the Strait of Hormuz will stay shut until its conditions are met, even as its grip on the waterway weakens and a US blockade chokes off its oil revenue.

• Two tankers struck over the weekend off Oman and in the Strait of Hormuz, according to UKMTO

• Iran's Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf said the strait will not open until Iran's seven conditions under the Islamabad Memorandum are met

• Houthis claimed a missile and drone attack on an Aramco facility in Riyadh, which Saudi authorities have not confirmed

• Saudi crude exports jumped to about 6.1m barrels a day in September from 3.4m in August, according to Bloomberg tanker tracking

• Middle East crude shipments have recovered to 17.5m barrels a day, or 98% of prewar levels, according to JPMorgan

• Iran shipped no crude on tankers in September for the first time since the war began, per preliminary Bloomberg estimates

• Iranian inflation is almost 90% and the rial has lost about 25% against the US dollar in two months

• Third US carrier group is heading to the region, with Trump saying heavier strikes are "possible" after the 3 November midterms

Trump drops diesel export ban threat after G7 reserve release

[8:44 am] G7 nations agreed to release emergency fuel stocks after weeks of US pressure, prompting Trump to shelve a threatened ban on US diesel exports.

• Up to 100m barrels of oil and diesel to be released over four months, coordinated by the IEA, with diesel front-loaded in the first 20 days

• Trump said "we're not going to be doing the export ban", despite earlier encouraging advisers to support it

• US diesel averaged about US$6.40 a gallon on Friday, according to AAA, after topping US$6 for the first time last month

• Kpler's Matt Stanley warned that drawing inventories indefinitely while disruption continues risks creating "a much bigger supply problem"

Source: Bloomberg

OPEC+ holds November output targets steady

[8:43 am] Seven core OPEC+ members kept production ceilings unchanged for November, with Gulf output still well below quota due to Iran war disruptions.

• Core members pumped 25m bpd in August, up 630,000 bpd from July but still about 5m bpd below prewar February levels

• Gulf exports have fluctuated at 60% to 80% of normal levels in recent months

• Capacity review to set 2027 quotas has been delayed, with output changes unlikely before next year

• UBS's Giovanni Staunovo said output remains well below quota despite rising Hormuz flows, adding "the oil market remains tight"

Source: Reuters

Eurozone inflation jumps to three-year high of 3.8%

[8:43 am] Euro area inflation rose more than expected in September, putting pressure on the ECB ahead of its 29 October meeting.

• Headline inflation up to 3.8% from 3.2% in August vs 3.6% ests, the highest since September 2023

• Core inflation of 2.5%, in line with ests

• Energy inflation of 18.8%, the highest since January 2023

Source: CNBC

Tesla rallies as Q3 deliveries beat ests

[8:42 am] Tesla's third quarter deliveries topped ests despite weakness in China and the US, with shares closing 4.7% higher at US$370.59.

• Deliveries down 2% to 486,532 vs 463,000 ests (5% beat)

• Production of 464,391 vehicles

• Energy storage deployments of 13.7 GWh, with William Blair expecting deployment growth to accelerate into the second half

• China domestic retail sales estimated down 21% year-on-year in July to August, offset by a 92% jump in exports, according to JPMorgan

US payrolls miss takes October Fed hike off the table

[8:41 am] US employers added just 29,000 jobs in September, prompting traders to push back the timing of the Fed's next rate hike to December.

• Nonfarm payrolls of 29,000 vs 90,000 ests, with July and August revised lower by a combined 60,000

• Unemployment rate up to 4.2% from 4.1%, driven by new workforce entrants rather than a rise in layoffs

• Average hourly earnings up 0.1% month-on-month and 3% year-on-year, below the Fed's preferred inflation gauge of 3.4%

• October hike odds below 25% according to swaps, down from about 70% on Monday before NY Fed President Williams flagged "no need for urgency"

• JPMorgan's Michael Feroli said "it would now take a very strong CPI to make the October meeting live" and still expects a December hike

• TD Securities now forecasts hikes in December and March, rather than October and January

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields rebound after jobs data as Europe contagion fears build

[8:39 am] Treasuries erased their post-payrolls rally to close higher on Friday, while traders turned their attention to signs of contagion across euro-area bond markets.

• US 10-year yield hit 5.34% this week, the highest since 2002, before closing at 5.28% on Friday

• Two-year yield fell as much as 10 basis points after the jobs data before closing four basis points higher near 4.84%

• Treasury Secretary Bessent said the rise in yields was in line with global trends and not an idiosyncratic US selloff

• French, Italian, Belgian and Greek bonds posted some of their biggest spread moves in years on Thursday as Germany drew haven demand

• ECB pricing pared to three hikes by end-2027 from four earlier in the week, with Citi flagging a possible pause to quantitative tightening

• UK 30-year gilt yield hit 6% for the first time since 1998

Good morning!

[8:28 am] ASX 200 futures are up 26 pts (+0.29%). Here's what happened overnight:

• A weak September payrolls print took an October Fed hike off the table, with tech leading and the Nasdaq scoring an intraday all-time high

  • S&P 500 (+0.73%), Equal-weight S&P 500 (+0.35%)

  • Nasdaq (+1.19%), up as much as 1.79% intraday

  • Dow (+0.49%), Russell 2000 (+0.94%)

• Iran hardened its stance on Hormuz over the weekend as more tankers were struck and Washington sent a third carrier to the region

• Oil supply relief came from two fronts as the G7 agreed to tap 100 million barrels of reserves and OPEC+ held November output steady