ASX 200 Live Today - Monday, 3rd November

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Monday, November 3. We’re excited to trial this new format. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. Today's live blog will wrap up around 2:00 pm AEDT. Be sure to refresh manually for the latest updates — and let us know how we can make it even better.

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ASX 200 climbs back to breakeven

[2:00 pm] ASX 200 currently down just -0.05%, up from intraday lows of -0.59%. Breadth remains weak, with 129 constituents (65%) lower.

The index is being buoyed by a sharp reversal among banks, with the S&P/ASX 200 Financials Index currently up 0.79% vs. session lows of -0.69%. The Big Four Banks are broadly higher thanks to positive takeaways from Westpac's FY25 result.

Westpac has soared 2.5% to fresh all-time highs, while CBA (+1.3%), ANZ (+0.5%) and NAB (+0.3%) have all posted modest gains.

That's all for today. The Index has seen a bit of a reversal but breadth continues to weaken at a time where rate cuts are priced in, the Fed is hinting at a pause and a potential (but unlikely) RBA rate hike.

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Westpac FY25 earnings call highlights

[1:07 pm] Westpac has just wrapped up its FY25 earnings call. Here are some interesting takeaways:

• Productivity benefits exceed $500m in FY26 with restructuring benefits flowing through FY26-FY27. Annual investment envelope remains at $2bn through FY28, with UNITE accounting for just under half of FY26 spend ($850m-$950m) and ~40% in FY27-FY28.

• UNITE investment is front-loaded due to single ledger migration decision, with most cost savings accruing later in the program extending slightly past September 2028 into early FY29. Program aims to structurally lower expense base and close cost-to-income ratio gap to peers over medium term.

• FY26 expense growth driven by continued banker hiring, 3-4% EBA pay rises, higher superannuation, and tech headwinds, partially offset by lower brand spend and significantly reduced amortisation. Deposit growth remains strong with system deposit and business credit growth both at 7%.

• Business banking volume gains concentrated among existing customers with high retention. Mortgage growth excluding RAMS to track at or slightly above system in early FY26. Lending margins will edge lower in H1 FY26 with persistent deposit spread pressure from rate cuts and product switching.

• RAMS asset sale completing 2H26 accelerates simplification by reducing platforms from three to two ahead of UNITE consolidation. Westpac One platform pilots real-time transaction banking in December 2025, with Westpac Intelligence Layer rolling out across the bank within 12 months.

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Aussie household spending edges higher

[1:05 pm] Australian household spending rose 0.2% month-on-month in September, following a flat result in August and 0.4% increase in July.

"Spending on non-discretionary items drove the overall rise, as households spent more on food, health, and petrol," said Tom Lay, ABS Head of Statistics.

"Discretionary spending was flat for September, with higher spending on recreation and culture being offset by falls for air travel and accommodation."

Other takeaways from the ABS report include:

• Four of the nine spending categories rose in September. The rises were led by Recreation and culture (+1.1 per cent), Health (+0.7 per cent) and Food (+0.6 per cent).

• Alcoholic beverages and tobacco had the largest percentage fall (-0.8 per cent), noting this series captures legal purchases of cigarettes and tobacco products, and does not include purchases of illicit tobacco.

• In annual terms, Miscellaneous goods and services (+8.7 per cent) and Health (+8.1 per cent) had the largest growth rates in the 12 months to September.

• New South Wales (+0.8 per cent) and South Australia (+0.6 per cent) recorded the largest growth rates, while the Australian Capital Territory (-2.4 per cent) had the biggest fall.

Source: ABS

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Australian job ads fall 2.2% in October

[1:03 pm] Australian job ads fell 2.2% month-on-month in October, according to the ANZ-Indeed survey.

Job ads in October were 7.4% lower than a year ago, and remained just 8.4% higher than pre-pandemic levels. There were strong gains in retail and food sectors ahead of the Christmas season, but that was more than offset by a large decline in education.

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Mount Ridley Mines hits 10-bagger status

[12:58 pm] Mount Ridley Mines announced a massive 838 million tonne maiden gallium resource estimate for its Mt Ridley Project on last Tuesday, 28 October. The stock stock has rallied over 1,300% since, including:

• Tues 28 Oct: Up 140% to 1.2 cents (from prior close of 0.5 cents)

• Wed 29 Oct: Up 42% to 1.7 cents

• Thu 30 Oct: Up 47% to 2.5 cents

• Fri 31 Oct: Up 28% to 3.2 cents

• Mon 3 Nov: Currently up 115% to 6.9 cents

The maiden resource estimate noted:

• Mount Ridley is assessing the broader critical mineral potential of the Mt Ridley Project, including scandium based on mult-ielement datasets and the Company’s existing drilling coverage.

• Discussions are well advanced with Australian and international advisors with critical minerals, rare earth, and US–Australia supply chain expertise to join the Company’s advisory and management teams

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ASX appoints Philip Lowe as inaugural chair of new Corporate Governance Advisory Group

[11:51 am] Dr Philip Lowe appointed Chair of ASX's newly formed Advisory Group on Corporate Governance (AGCG), replacing the ASX Corporate Governance Council per recommendations from expert Review Panel released October 16, 2025.

The ASX now holds formal responsibility for developing, approving and issuing Corporate Governance Principles and Recommendations, supported by the AGCG.

AGCG will be a smaller, expert group representing cross-section of issuers and investors. Nominations now open for members including superannuation fund leaders, listed company directors, investment managers, company secretaries and stockbrokers.

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Westpac higher on FY25 results

[11:42 am] Westpac opened 0.6% lower but now up 1.8% to a near all-time high of $39.47.

The FY25 result read well with a slight earnings beat and positive bad debt surprise. The key numbers highlighted earlier this morning include:

• NPAT down 1% to $6.9bn vs. $6.9bn ests (in-line)

• Net interest margin down 1 bp to 1.94% vs. 1.93% ests (0.5% beat)

• Total dividend up 1% to 153 cps vs. 152 cps Citi ests (0.7% beat)

• CET1 at 12.5% vs. 12.3% ests (20 bp beat)

• Total impairment charges at $424m vs. $552m ests (23% beat)

Westpac daily price chart (Source: TradingView)

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Six day losing streaks are rare

[11:04 pm] The ASX is on track to log a five-day losing streak, but it hasn't seen a losing streak of six or more since June 2022.

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ASX 200 slumps, on track for five day skid

[11:00 pm] ASX 200 currently down 0.53%, no intraday bounce yet, just sitting at session lows. Relatively weak breadth, with 134 constituents (67%) trading lower.

Not a good look as we're now on track for a five-day losing streak, down 2.4% and starting to roll over.

ASX 200 daily chart (Source: TradingView)

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Top ASX 200 gainers and losers

[10:05 am] Droneshield bouncing on the $25.4 million contract win, tech names like Block, Megaport and Life360 also catching a bid. Meanwhile, healthcare stocks and gold miners weak in early trade. A few of last Friday's reporters (ResMed and Steadfast) also continuing to edge lower.

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Tivan and Sumitomo sign MoU

[9:40 am] Tivan spent most of this year trading sideways but experienced a ~70% breakout in recent weeks. The company is progressing a broad portfolio of critical metal projects including the Speewah Fluorite Project in WA, Sandover Fluorite Project in the NT, Turiscai copper-gold Project in Timor-Leste and the recently acquired Molyhil tungsten-molybdenum Project in the NT.

The company announced an MoU with Sumitomo on potential collaboration including for development, funding and operation of the Molyhil Project. This represents the third project collaboration between Tivan and Sumitomo, following a JV for Speewah and MoU for Sandover.

Tivan daily price chart (Source: TradingView)

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Droneshield receives $25.3m LAM contract

[9:28 am] Droneshield has received a $25.3 million contract from a defence end customer in a Latin America (LATAM) country. The company expects to deliver all equipment throughout Q4 2025 and Q1 2026, with cash payment expected over the same time period.

These contract wins used to boost the share price by double digit percentages (e.g. $32.2m Asia Pacific contracts on 14 April drove a 16% one-day rally). Still a positive catalyst, but hard to say how the stock will react given its up 400% YTD.

DRO shares have tumbled ~43% from its 9-Oct record high. The stock has fallen in 13 of the last 16 sessions. It'll be interesting to see if it can catch a bid around these old prior highs.

Company page: Droneshield (DRO)

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New Murchison Gold fully ramped up

[9:20 am] An interesting gold name that's trading within 10% of recent highs. Today's announcement noted:

"The operation has had a strong second month of mining and crushing and is now fully ramped up with 60,877 dry tonnes of ore at an agreed grade of 3.95g/t Au trucked to Westgold Resources Limited’s Bluebird gold processing facility 36km by road south of Crown Prince."

NMG had also received and rejected a takeover proposal from Meeka Metals in early August, according to The Australian.

Company page: New Murchison Gold (NMG)

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Westpac sells RAMS mortgage portfolio

[9:17 am] Westpac has sold its $21.4 billion RAMS mortgage portfolio to a Pepper Money, KKR2 and PIMCO consortium. The sale price represents a slight premium to the gross loan value, though a loss on sale is expected.

Westpac's CET1 ratio will improve by 20 bps, with the transaction to complete in 2H26.

Company page: Westpac (WBC)

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Westpac FY25 results

[9:15 am] A relatively in-line set of numbers from Westpac. Hard to say how this will trade given the in-line result vs. 19.5% YTD rally. The key numbers for FY25 include:

• NPAT down 1% to $6.9bn vs. $6.9bn ests (in-line)

• Net interest margin down 1 bp to 1.94% vs. 1.93% ests (0.5% beat)

• Total dividend up 1% to 153 cps vs. 152 cps Citi ests (0.7% beat)

• CET1 at 12.5% vs. 12.3% ests (20 bp beat)

• Total impairment charges at $424m vs. $552m ests (23% beat)

• "I’m pleased with the growth we’ve achieved in deposits and loans, up 7% and 6% respectively. In our Consumer and Institutional divisions, deposits increased 10%. Institutional lending is up 17% and business lending rose 15%. Notably, we saw 22% growth in our agribusiness portfolio, with the majority from existing customers." - CEO Anthony Miller

• Note: The numbers quoted in the Morning Wrap were vs. Citi ests, the above refer to consensus

Company page: Westpac (WBC)

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Q3 earnings: So far so good

[9:05 am] S&P 500 Q3 earnings tracking ahead of expectations with 10.7% EPS growth, though aggregate beat rates moderating from recent averages.

• Blended earnings growth rate of 10.7% well above the 7.9% expected

• 83% of companies beat EPS expectations (vs 77% one-year average, 78% five-year average)

• 79% beat revenue expectations (vs 67% one-year average, 70% five-year average)

• Aggregate earnings coming in 5.3% above estimates, below the 7.3% one-year average and 8.4% five-year average surprise rate

• 64% of S&P 500 companies have reported Q3 results so far

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'Everlasting peace' says Trump

[9:04 am] Pretty funny post from Trump regarding the recent meeting with Xi.

Source: Truth Social

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MP and Lithium Americas slip

[8:56 am] The two key US rare earth and lithium names backed by government equity stakes showed continued weakness overnight. MP Materials fell 2.8%, settling slightly above intraday lows but marking a fresh six-week low. The stock has now declined 36% from its October 14 peak.

MP Materials daily price chart (Source: TradingView)

Lithium Americas dropped 2.1% to its lowest level since September 24, the day the US government announced its equity stake and funding agreement. The stock has tumbled 45% from its October 14th high.

Lithium Americas daily price chart (Source: TradingView)

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China to suspend rare earth curbs

[8:53 am] US-China trade truce provides temporary relief with reciprocal concessions on critical materials and tariffs, but represents a short-term fix rather than comprehensive resolution. Some of the key highlights include:

• China suspends rare earth export controls (gallium, germanium, antimony, graphite) imposed in 2022 and 2025, issuing general licenses for US end users and global suppliers. More restrictive October 2025 controls paused for one year.

• China terminates antitrust investigations into US chip companies including Nvidia and Qualcomm. Nexperia's Chinese facilities can resume shipments, easing auto production concerns.

• US pauses reciprocal tariffs for another year, cancels threatened 100% tariff on Chinese exports, extends Section 301 exclusions to November 2026, and halves fentanyl tariffs to 10%.

• China commits to buying 12 million metric tons of US soybeans this season and minimum 25 million metric tons annually for three years.

• Treasury Secretary Bessent warns China has "cornered the market" on rare earths and been "unreliable partners," urging continued caution despite the deal.

Source: Bloomberg

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Meta's record-breaking bond sale

[8:46 am] Meta sold $30 billion in bonds, the largest US high-grade offering since 2023, drawing record demand of $125 billion in orders. This came on the same day shares plunged as much as 14% after the company announced capital expenditures would reach up to $72 billion this year and grow even faster in 2026 to fund AI infrastructure. Zuckerberg stated Meta plans to spend hundreds of billions over the next decade pursuing human-level AI capabilities.

The divergence between stock and bond market reactions reflects different investor priorities. Equity investors are questioning whether AI spending will generate returns that justify the cost, particularly for Meta's advertising business. Bond investors focused on the company's $30 billion in quarterly operating cash flow and strong creditworthiness.

Tech companies have issued approximately $157 billion in US public bonds through late September to fund AI needs, with Morgan Stanley projecting roughly $3 trillion in infrastructure spending through 2028. Strong demand persists as investors have poured money into high-grade bond funds for 25 consecutive weeks, the longest streak in four years, while most corporate issuance has been refinancing rather than new borrowing.

Source: Bloomberg

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Berkshire: Earnings soar, cash pile hits record

[8:45 am] Berkshire Hathaway's Q3 operating profit surged 34% year-over-year to $13.5 billion, driven primarily by insurance underwriting income which jumped over 200% to $2.37 billion.

The company continued its defensive posture with zero share buybacks in the first nine months of 2025 despite the stock pulling back from all-time highs. Cash reserves hit a record $381.6 billion, up from the previous high of $347.7 billion in Q1. Berkshire also remained a net seller of equities in Q3, generating $10.4 billion in taxable gains, signaling limited attractive opportunities in the current market.

Buffett is also set to step down as CEO at year-end.

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Amazon and Apple: Upbeat earnings

[8:40 am] US markets finished the week on a relatively positive note thanks to upbeat earnings from Apple and Amazon.

Amazon delivered better-than-expected Q3 results with AWS as the headline driver, accelerating to 20% growth (up ~3 points) marking its fastest pace in 11 quarters. AWS margins also beat expectations. The company is aggressively expanding capacity with 3.8GW added over the past 12 months and driving adoption of Trainium2 chips ahead of the Trainium3 rollout. Advertising remains strong and shipping initiatives continue gaining traction. Amazon shares finished the session up 9.5%.

Apple's fiscal Q4 slightly beat on sales with EPS outperformance driven by better gross margins from a higher Services mix. iPhone sales came in light, partly attributed to ongoing supply constraints, though Services exceeded expectations.

The December quarter guidance came in much stronger than expected. Management guided to 10-12% total revenue growth versus Street expectations of just over 6%. iPhone revenue is projected to grow double-digits compared to sell-side estimates of 7-8%, with expectations that iPhone strength will return China to growth in the quarter. Though Apple shares slipped 0.3%, likely due to high expectations.

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Good morning!

[8:30 am] ASX 200 futures are down 5pts (-0.04%) as of 8:30 am AEDT. The overnight session in a nutshell:

• Major US benchmarks higher but largely thanks to Amazon (+9.5%) surging on better-than-expected results

• Amazon reported robust Q3 earnings as AWS revenue accelerates to highest level since 2022

• China will effectively suspend implementation of additional export controls on rare earth metals and terminate investigations targeting US companies in the semiconductor supply chain

If you’re new to the blog – catch up quick via today’s Morning Wrap.