ASX 200 Live Today - Monday, 29th September

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Monday, September 29. We’re excited to trial this new format. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. Today's live blog will wrap up around 2:00 pm AEST. Be sure to refresh manually for the latest updates — and let us know how we can make it even better.

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ASX 200 still rangebound, small caps soar

[2:00 pm] The ASX 200 is on track to finish higher for a third straight session, though it continues to trade in a relatively sideways. The index is currently up 0.58%, down from session highs of 0.96%. A solid session with broadening strength, with defensives like Healthcare (+1.33%), Financials (+1.29%), Telcos (+0.88%) and Industrials (+0.59%) leading the move. Meanwhile recent runners like Tech (-0.86%) and Materials (-0.10%) take a breather.

While the large cap Index continues to move sideways, the S&P/ASX Small Ords Index is up 0.35%, back near recent highs or the highest level since late 2007.

That's all for Monday. Overall, markets remain dicey as year-end rate cut expectations ease, alongside Trump's latest tariff updates, an uptick in oil prices, uncertainty around AI capex and seasonality headwinds.

ASX 200 daily chart (Source: TradingView)

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Gold stocks trading broadly higher

[12:50 pm] Gold was up 0.26% earlier this morning, now trading 0.81% higher to US$3,789/oz.

Most gold miners opened modestly higher, retreated from opening levels but now back near intraday highs.

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ACL reaches agreement with AIC

[12:46 pm] Australian Clinical Labs reached an agreement with the Australian Information Commissioner (AIC) to resolve the civil penalty case stemming from the February 2022 Medlab cyberattack, which occurred nine weeks after ACL acquired Medlab.

Under the proposed settlement, ACL will pay a $5.8 million penalty for Privacy Act 1988 contraventions and contribute $400,000 toward the AIC’s legal costs. The agreement is subject to Federal Court approval, with judgment reserved.

No material impact on ACL’s ongoing operations or financial position is expected beyond the settlement amount.

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Droneshield back near all-time highs

[11:42 am] Droneshield is up 13.6%, despite opening only ~1.0% higher. If the stock closes at current levels, it'll make a fresh all-time high.

No company-specific announcements, though Electro Optic Systems is rallying off the back of a trading update. Also plenty of drone-related headlines over the weekend, with Russia launching a major drone and missile attack on Kyiv.

Droneshield daily price chart (Source: TradingView)

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ASX 200 gainers and losers in early trade

[10:48 am] Defence, gold and healthcare stocks top the leaderboard, while coal, uranium and large cap miners posted the largest declines in early trade.

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Citi's take on US pharma tariffs

[10:46 am] Headlines of 100% US import tariffs on branded/patented drugs from 1 October weighed on ANZ biotech shares at the open, though no tariffs apply if US plant construction has begun. Citi analysts noted this morning:

• Telix manufactures its in-line products for the US market within the US, so it is not directly affected.

• CSL collects plasma in the US for US recipients. While some processing was previously done overseas, management indicated that US sourcing of the original substance is the main factor, and the company has flexibility to adjust steps within its existing manufacturing structure if needed.

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ASX 200 higher, healthcare stocks lead

[10:35 am] A strong start to the weak, with the market once again having a crack at trading above the 20-day moving average.

• ASX 200 up 0.73% in early trade, pushing intraday highs

• Solid breadth with 147 constituents trading higher (74%)

• Broad-based gains from Healthcare, Financials and Industrial heavyweights like CSL, ResMed, Big Four Banks and Computershare

ASX 200 sector performance (Source: Market Index)

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Gold pushing all-time highs

[9:48 am] Gold is up 0.26%to US$3,768/oz in early trade.

This follows a 0.24% gain last Friday, which drove the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) up 2.1%.

Gold daily price chart (Source: TradingView)

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Electro Optic Systems: market update

[9:43 am] EOS says it expects full-year revenue for 2025 from existing contracts of $115-125 million vs. $158.2 million consensus. The company also noted: " EOS continues to pursue a range of new orders, which if signed in sufficient time to enable delivery in 2025, have the potential to contribute up to an additional $25m of revenue in 2025"

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Electro Optic Systems (EOS)

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Bullish on MinRes

[9:23 am] MinRes announced the completion of haul road upgrades earlier this morning, with RBC Capital Markets analyst Kaan Peker viewing this as a key de-risking event for the project. His key takeaways include:

• August 2025 shipments reached 3.2Mt, above the ~2.5Mt expected, implying a quarterly beat versus the 6.2Mt target and suggesting strong operational performance.

• Annualised run rate at 3.2Mt/month equates to 38.4Mt, exceeding the original design capacity of 35Mtpa, providing confidence in stretch capacity, though models remain capped at 35Mt.

• Contingent $200m payment tied to achieving a 35Mt wet quarterly run rate is expected in H2 FY26, supporting de-gearing efforts.

RBC rates MinRes as an Outperform with a $41.00 target price.

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Pro Medicus not subject to US pharma tariffs

[9:21 am] Pro Medicus released a very straightforward two sentence announcement this morning:

• "The company does not produce, sell or otherwise have any direct involvement with the pharmaceutical industry."

• "As such, the company believes it is not subject to the recently announced US tariff on pharmaceuticals as alluded to in the “making headlines” section of Friday’s financial press."

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MinRes completes Onslow upgrade

[9:17 am] MinRes announced the completion of upgrades to the Onslow Iron private haul road, enabling unconstrained haulage to resume at normal speeds of 3.2 million tonnes of ore in August 2025.

The announced was marked as non-price sensitive.

Source: ASX Announcement (non-price sensitive) | Company page: MinRes (MIN)

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Bravura Solutions appoints new CEO

[9:15 am] Bravura Solutions has appointed Colin Greenhill as its new CEO, effective 1 January 2026.

Greenhill, who will be based in the company’s London office, most recently served as CEO of SSP Worldwide. Shezad Okhai will continue as interim CEO until Greenhill assumes the role, after which Okhai will return to his position as a Non-Executive Director of Bravura and assist Greenhill to ensure a smooth transition.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Bravura Solutions (BVS)

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Markets bounce, but bearish pressures are starting to mount

[9:04 am] Major US benchmarks snapped a three-day losing streak, while the ASX 200 is set to edge higher for a third straight session. Every time the index tests recent highs, it gets pushed back, but whenever it nears a breakdown, it bounces.

ASX 200 daily chart (Source: TradingView)

Recent market drivers highlight this cautious tone, including:

• Fed easing expectations tempered as firmer economic data and cautious Fedspeak raised the bar for further rate cuts, contributing to a backup in bond yields.

• AI trades faced scrutiny: Micron shares lagged post-earnings despite 30% quarter-on-quarter HBM revenue growth. Headlines highlighted concerns around Nvidia’s OpenAI investment, Bain’s monetisation report, and ongoing US-China AI competition.

• Flash PMI readings were broadly in line, but services showed declines in new business and employment, manufacturing saw lower output, new orders, and employment.

• Trade risks remained front of mind after Trump announced new tariffs: 25% on heavy trucks, 50% on select housing products, 30% on upholstered furniture, and 100% on branded drugs unless US manufacturing is underway.

• Oil posted its biggest weekly rally since June, driven by heightened geopolitical tensions around Ukraine and a shift in Trump’s comments on Ukraine’s ability to reclaim territory from Russia.

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Trump announces new sectoral tariffs

[9:00 am] Trump announced a wave of new tariffs over the weekend via Truth Social, including 100% on branded/patented pharmaceuticals (unless US plant construction is underway), 25% on imported heavy trucks, 30-50% on furniture and cabinetry. Justification is largely framed around national security, using Section 232 powers, as other tariff authorities face legal challenges.

Furniture and heavy-truck tariffs aim to shield domestic manufacturers from foreign competition, potentially benefiting firms with US production capacity while pressuring importers.

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Massive crisis for Germany's industrial sector

[8:57 am] Germany’s auto industry is in deep structural decline with Volkswagen scaling back EV output and Bosch cutting 13,000 jobs adding to roughly 55,000 auto job losses in the past two years and nearly 100,000 projected cuts by 2030.

High labor and energy costs combined with slowing EV demand and tariffs are forcing German carmakers and suppliers into painful restructurings while Chinese competitors like BYD gain global share with cheaper well-equipped models.

VW is restructuring with plans to cut 35,000 jobs by 2030 while Porsche and Audi struggle with weak luxury EV demand issuing repeated profit warnings and scaling back models.

Source: Bloomberg

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Trump signs executive order for TikTok deal

[8:55 am] The US might be getting an absolute steal for TikTok.

The Trump administration’s floated $14 billion valuation for TikTok US is far below prior estimates near $40 billion implying a price-to-sales ratio of just 1.4x despite annual revenue above $10 billion and 170 million active users.

The forced sale plan would cut ByteDance’s stake to below 20 percent within 120 days to address US national security concerns though Beijing’s approval remains uncertain.

Source: Bloomberg

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Costco tops earnings estimates, shares tank

[8:52 am] Costco shares slipped 2.9% despite the company report better-than-expected quarterly revenue, comparable sales and profit. Here are some of the key takeaways from the results:

• Tariff-driven cost increases are pushing up prices of imported goods for the second straight quarter leading Costco to consolidate suppliers source locally and reduce holiday variety in favor of larger household items

• Food inflation is mixed with beef coffee and sugar more expensive but produce eggs and butter cheaper underscoring shifting consumer baskets

• Membership model and affluent loyal customer base continue to shield Costco from broader retail volatility while extended operating hours and strong sales in gold gift cards and apparel supported growth

• Competitive landscape remains firm with Sam’s Club also reporting steady spending patterns and using supply chain tweaks to offset tariff pressures

Source: Bloomberg

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Dollar bounces

[8:50 am] The US dollar posted its strongest weekly gain since early August with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index up 0.5% driven by month-end corporate demand despite broader bearish positioning. In the grand scheme of things, it's a tiny bounce from near four year lows.

Speculative traders increased short bets to $8.6 billion, the largest since late July, highlighting skepticism about the greenback’s durability even as it rallied.

US dollar index (Source: TradingView)

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Long-dated bond yields ease

[8:45 am] Global long-bond yields have eased in recent days, as investors eye supply changes and hunt for bargains after a selloff, according to Bloomberg. The slight retreat in yields reflects a shift in positioning with Citi and BofA closing bearish long-bond calls and TS Lombard pointing to supply fixes as the key driver of renewed demand.

Demand dynamics are changing with pension funds and insurers stepping back and QT weighing but strong auction interest in Japan’s 20- and 40-year bonds shows buyers are returning.

Disinflationary trends support confidence that US 30-year yields will stay below 5 percent while strong global growth is driving relative value trades such as flatteners in Australian bonds.

Source: Bloomberg

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Good morning!

[8:31 am] ASX 200 futures are up 21pts (+0.23%) as of 8:30 am AEST.

• Major US benchmarks broadly higher, closed near best levels and broke a three-day losing streak

• S&P 500 (+0.59%), Dow (+0.65%), Nasdaq (+0.44%) and Russell 2000 (+0.97%)

• But still down for the week: Dow (-0.15%), S&P 500 (-0.31%), Russell 2000 (-0.59%), Nasdaq (-0.65%)

• Trump unleashed fresh tariff updates for heavy trucks, housing products, furniture, branded drugs and more

If you’re new to the blog – catch up quick via today’s Morning Wrap.