Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Monday, October 20. We’re excited to trial this new format. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. Today's live blog will wrap up around 2:00 pm AEDT. Be sure to refresh manually for the latest updates — and let us know how we can make it even better.

---

ASX 200 flat as REITs, banks and tech offset miner selloff

[2:05 pm] The S&P./ASX 200 is currently up 0.15%, bouncing off session lows of -0.35%. A pretty solid day with strength from Real Estate (+1.02%), Financials (+0.94%), Tech (+0.85%) and Industrials (+0.83%) proving enough to offset the weakness in Materials (-1.62%). Breadth remained solid, with 130 constituents (65%) trading higher, with most decliners coming from the gold and copper sector. Will be interesting to see if soaring precious metals can kick off after the recent pullback, or require more sideways trade. Overall, market looks to be in a relatively encouraging spot. Still lots to work through amid US-China trade tensions, mixed views on RBA November cut, lingering inflation concerns, big selloff in the insurance space (QBE down 9.2% last Friday) and pickup in concerns in US regional bank/credit space.

---

Bapcor nears decade low

[12:31 pm] What a chart. Bapcor is down almost 50% in the last four months and 63% off its June 2021 record high. Besides the brief pandemic dip, the stock is trading at its lowest level since September 2015 and up only ~90% since its April 2014 IPO.

"Guidance provided today represents a -32% downgrade to FY26 expectations, driven by higher costs expected to come into the business in 1H26, which would be partially offset by savings in 2H," noted RBC Capital Markets’ analyst Jack Lynch earlier this morning.

Bapcor monthly chart (Source: TradingView)

---

Heavy day for uranium

[12:29 pm] Uranium stocks are broadly lower, with Deep Yellow suffering a 15% selloff following the resignation of its CEO John Borshoff. No specific catalyst for the sector-wide sell off.

---

Sea of red for gold miners

[11:43 am] A relatively heavy day for gold miners, with the average large cap gold miner down around 5%. Names like Pantoro, Evolution, Westgold and Ramelius have given back all their gains from the past week.

---

Gold prices slip

[11:30 am] Gold prices down around 2.0% in the last two sessions. Prices have run up pretty hard and now on the backfoot. Will be interesting to see where prices stabilise. The 20-day moving average is around 5% below current price levels.

Gold daily price chart (Source: TradingView)

---

Analyst views on Iluka Resources

[10:38 am] Iluka Resources shares dipped as much as 15% last Friday but managed to closed the session down just 2.4%. The company released its Q3 production report earlier than expected, after learning that its key synthetic rutile customer, Venator, was selling its UK pigment plant to China's LB Group. The quarterly report flagged weaker-than-expected sales and revenue, as well as the withdrawal of its synthetic rutile sales guidance.

• JPMorgan downgraded to Neutral from Overweight, raised target from $6.75 to $7.25. Views downgrade as valuation-driven, with SR sales uncertainty and execution risk offset by ongoing investor interest in rare earths.

• Macquarie retained Neutral, target $7.10. Notes rising liquidity pressure from heavy capex, with possible equity raise or divestment, but keeps valuation steady after minor model tweaks.

• Morgan Stanley retained Overweight, target $8.60. Highlights strong production but delayed sales, persistent zircon weakness, and long-term upside from Eneabba and Balranald once demand stabilises.

---

ASX 200 flat, Materials dip from record highs

[10:28 am] ASX 200 down 0.1% in early trade as solid breadth (nine out eleven sectors green, 127 constituents (64%) trading flat or higher) is offset by a sizeable pullback for the Materials sector.

The Materials sector rallied 4.0% last week to set a fresh record high for the first time since December 2023. The index has rallied 14% in the last four weeks. Today's selloff reflects a sharp pullback for gold miners (and precious metals in general) following the recent run up, as well as softness for other metals including copper, aluminium, uranium and more.

ASX 200 sector performance (Source: Market Index)

---

Bapcor dives on Q1 trading update

[10:06 am] Just when you thought things couldn't get any worse for Bapcor, the stock is down 16% in early trade to the lowest point since March 2020. The company's Q1 trading update noted:

• Group revenue down 3% year-on-year to $497.7 million

• Retail segment rate of sales decline has slowed and gross margin improving, but reinvesting in brand and promotional activities

• FY26 underlying NPAT guidance of $51-61 million vs. Macquarie estimates of $76.3 million (26% miss)

Source: Bapcor (BAP) announcement

---

Rio boss highlights strategic US positioning

[9:46 am] A few interesting takeaways from Rio Tinto CEO Simon Trott, who noted:

• Rio's Kennecott Utah Copper smelter is one of only two copper smelters in the US, giving the company a "strategic card" to play as Washington pushes for domestic production, with Rio evaluating expansion around existing resources and potential assets like Resolution.

• Trott says the relationship with Chinese partner Chinalco has "much improved" and he's open to further collaborations beyond their Simandou iron ore joint venture, with discussions also covering a potential restart of share buybacks.

• Simandou is on track to produce a small volume of iron ore this year, with the mine, rail and port operations expected to take roughly two-and-a-half years to ramp up to full 60 million tonne annual capacity.

• Rio's Rhodes Ridge project contains some of the last high-grade, low-impurity iron ore material in the Pilbara, providing the company with multiple strategic options for future development.

Source: The Australian

---

Deep Yellow CEO John Borshoff to step down

[9:38 am] Deep Yellow's CEO and Managing Director John Borshoff will step down, effective 20 October. The company's CFO Craig Barnes will lead the organisation as acting CEO, while the search for a replacement CEO is reportedly at an "advanced stage".

Borshoff has been a legend within the uranium space, having joined Deep Yellow in 2016 and prior to that, founded Paladin Energy in 1993.

Source: Deep Yellow (DYL) announcement

---

Pilbara vs. China

[9:33 am] Some interesting takeaways from RBC analyst Kaan Peker regarding China's CMRG consortium and BHP-Rio.

• China has created a powerful buying group (CMRG) controlling over 85% of its steel industry, which could push BHP and Rio Tinto to work together in ways previously considered impossible.

• CMRG is demanding better terms like pricing in Chinese currency, discounts, and freight concessions, effectively flipping the power balance in iron ore negotiations from sellers to this single large buyer.

• A limited partnership between BHP and Rio focused on shared infrastructure and logistics might now pass regulatory scrutiny, unlike their blocked 2010 merger attempt, because new competitors like Fortescue and incoming African supply have reduced their combined market dominance.

• The miners could pool some production (150-170 million tonnes) for joint marketing, create premium blended products, share railway and port facilities, and coordinate on low-carbon certification to appeal to European buyers facing carbon taxes.

• Beyond countering China's buyer power, this strategy helps the miners differentiate their high-quality ore as a premium low-carbon product and reduces their heavy reliance on iron ore by diversifying into copper and other minerals.

---

DroneShield reports massive jump in Q3 earnings

[9:30 am] DroneShield reported some massive numbers for the September quarter, including:

• Revenue up 1,091% to $92.9 million

• Cash receipts up 751% to $77.4 million

• SaaS revenues up 400% to $3.5 million

• Operating cash flow up 204% to $20.1 million vs. $19.4m cash flows a year ago

DroneShield shares have experienced a massive pullback in recent days, down 30% since 9 October. Though the stock is still up 42% in the past month and up 500% year-to-date.

Source: DroneShield (DRO) announcement

---

Qualitas MD offloads ~5% stake

[9:25 am] Qualitas' Managing Director Andrew Schwartz sold 15.1 million shares to a "large global listed equities manager'. Mr Schwartz continues to hold 57.3 million Qualitas shares or approximately 19% of the company.

"I’m proud that Qualitas has attracted one of the world’s most respected active listed equities managers. Their decision to become a shareholder reflects confidence in our long-term growth trajectory and the quality of our platform," says Schwartz.

Source: Qualitas Group (QAL) announcement

---

Zip continues to crush expectations

[9:17 am] Zip released its 1Q26 trading update this morning, with numbers broadly ahead of market expectations.

• US total transaction volumes up 51% year-on-year to $2.93bn vs. ests for 41% growth

• ANZ total transaction volumes up 11.1% to $968.4m vs. ests for 7% growth

• Record quarterly cash EBTDA of $62.8m, up 98% yerar-on-year

• Added over 100,000 customers in the US, average transactions per customer up 17.8% year-on-year

"Zip has updated guidance by increasing expected US TTV growth to be above 40% for the year (previously 35%). Zip has reconfirmed the remainder of guidance. Currently VA consensus is sitting at 36% US TTV growth for the year, so we expect the market to be putting through upgrades today. They have also doubled their share buy-back program from $50m to $100m which will be another positive for the market. Overall, we expect to see strong support for the share price today," noted E&P analyst Annabel Khun.

Source: Zip (ZIP) announcement

---

Reece completes $365 million off-market buyback

[9:15 am] Reece completed a $365 million off-market buyback at $13.00 per share vs. its previously announced target of $250-400 million at $11-13 per share.

This was one of the most 'interesting' buybacks I've seen. The company announced this on 22 September, when the stock was trading at just $10.21, effectively offering shareholders the opportunity to sell to Reece at $11-13, capped at $400 million worth of shares. Clearly, management believe the long-term outlook remains bright despite near-term headwinds in the US construction space.

---

Aura Energy, Elevra management changes

[9:09 am] Two interesting announcements from Aura Energy and Elevra (formerly Sayona Mining) this morning:

• Elevra's CFO Dougal Elder resigned to pursue other opportunities, effective 20 October. Christian Cortes has been appointed CFO, he was recently Arcadium Lithium's Chief Integration and Transformation Officer

• Aura Energy's Managing Director Andrew Grove resigned, effective immediately. Will continue to provide support for the company over the next six months, consistent with his contract

---

Infratil lifts Contact Energy stake

[9:06 am] Infratil is increasing its stake in Contract Energy from 9.4% to 14.3% by purchasing TECT's shareholding for NZ$437.7 million at NZ$8.95 (vs. NZ$9.08 current price).

"Contact Energy is one of New Zealand's largest energy generators and retailers, and following their merger with Manawa Infratil is backing Contact as a strong cash generating asset," says E&P’s Annabel Khun.

"However, Infratil remains far off their $1 billion in planned asset sales and they have strong capex demands from their portfolio, in particular CDC. With deploying this capital Infratil will need to manage their remaining dry powder and look to sell additional assets or raise to finance portfolio cash needs."

Source: Infratil (IFT) announcement

---

Insider trade: NRW Holdings

[8:58 am] NRW Holdings Managing Director Julian Pemberton offloaded 4.0 million shares ($19.7m) between 14-17 October, now owns 8.1 million shares after the transaction.

---

Australian Strategic Materials launches $50m raise

[8:53 am] Australian Strategic Materials raised $50 million to expand its non-China rare earths supply chain as geopolitical tensions drive investor interest in alternative critical mineral sources.

The stock is up 177% month-to-date, creating a prime opportunity to tap the market for a far less dilutive placement (vs. a few weeks/months ago). The proceeds will be used to expand its Korean Metals Plant (operational since May 2022 and supplying Europe, Korea and the US) as part of its strategy to create an alternative global supply chain for critical minerals.

---

Q3 earnings off to a strong start

[8:51 am] We're in the early innings of US Q3 earnings season, but things are look so far so good.

• Blended earnings growth for Q3 currently sits at 8.5% vs. the 7.9% at quarter-end.

• Of companies reporting so far, 86% beat EPS estimates (versus 77% one-year average) and 84% exceeded sales expectations (versus 67% one-year average).

• However, the actual magnitude of beats is more subdued, with earnings coming in 5.9% above consensus (below the 7.3% one-year average) and sales 1.5% above estimates (slightly better than the 1.2% one-year average but below the 2.1% five-year average).

---

Trump says 100% tariffs on China is unsustainable

[8:49 am] Trump and senior officials signal potential de-escalation in US-China trade tensions after recent tariff threats, with concrete discussions underway.

• Trump acknowledged his proposed 100% tariffs on Chinese exports are "not sustainable" and indicated the US will "do fine with China," marking a softer tone after last week's threat of massive new tariffs.

• Treasury Secretary Bessent scheduled to speak with Chinese Vice Premier He on trade negotiations, while Trump plans to meet President Xi in South Korea later this month.

• China's Commerce Minister blamed the US for recent escalation and warned against "decoupling," while Beijing accused Washington of creating panic over rare earth exports but indicated openness to resolving tensions through talks.

---

Markets bounce as credit risk fears ease

[8:45 am] Recent credit market concerns appear overblown as analysts suggest idiosyncratic events have triggered excessive caution rather than systemic issues. Here are some of the key takeaways from analysts:

• Goldman Sachs has placed regional banks on watch specifically for NDFI exposure following updates from Zion and Western Alliance, while sentiment deteriorated after questions about Jefferies' handling of First Brands.

• Multiple analysts see Tricolor and First Brands bankruptcies as isolated credit events, with BofA noting markets have adopted a "sell first, ask questions later" approach and Compass Point expecting upcoming BDC earnings to ease credit concerns.

• Moody's reported speculative grade refinancing needs declined 5.6% year-over-year to $1.9 trillion (the first drop since 2018), suggesting reduced near-term refinancing and default risk.

• Despite improved refinancing outlook, Moody's cautioned that maturity peaks have shifted forward to 2028 from the previous 2029 forecast, creating vulnerability to unexpected market shocks that could elevate default rates.

---

Good morning!

[8:35 am] ASX 200 futures are down 7 pts (-0.07%) as of 8:30 am AEDT.

The overnight session in a nutshell:

• Major US benchmarks mostly higher, recouping some of last Thursday's regional bank-related weakness

• S&P 500 (+0.53%), Dow (+0.52%), Nasdaq (+0.52%), Russell 2000 (-0.60%)

• Trump says proposed 100% additional tariffs on Chinese exports is not sustainable, says the US is "going to do fine with China"

• China Q3 GDP data today, forecast to grow at the slowest pace of the year as domestic weakness offsets export strength

• Sharp pullback for gold, silver and other precious metals overnight

If you’re new to the blog – catch up quick via today’s Morning Wrap.