ASX 200 Live Today - Monday, 11th August

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Monday, August 11. We’re excited to be trialing this new format. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. Today's live blog will wrap up around 2:00 pm AEST. Be sure to refresh manually for the latest updates — and let us know how we can make it even better.

Macquarie tips GQG Partners shares as a buy, forward yield tops 10%

[13:54 pm] Broker Macquarie is bullish on fund manager GQG Partners and has a $2.64 12-month price target, versus the $1.76 price shares changed hands for on Monday.

Macquarie is calling for earnings per share of 16.7 cents in financial 2026 to put the stock on 10.5x times earnings if it's on the money.

The dividend yield in financial 2026 could be as high as 11.4% assuming Macquarie's forecast for dividends per share of 15.5 cents is accurate.

By Tom Richardson.

Bitcoin extends rally to near record high at $US121,977

[13:20 pm] Risk and liquidity bellwether bitcoin has jumped nearly 3% on Monday morning to $US121,977 a coin at lunchtime.

The online token has now added 5.7% over the past five days and is near a record high just above $US123,000.

The world's second largest cryptocurrency Ethereum has also extended a bull run to $US4,295 a coin. It has jumped 46.1% over just the past month.

By Tom Richardson.

UBS sell rated on JB Hi-Fi

[12:58 pm] Highly-rated retail equity analyst Shaun Cousins of UBS has parsed the financial results of market darling JB Hi-Fi and is sell rated on valuation grounds.

Mr Cousins said the dividend per share beat the market's expectations with strong like-for-like sales in July.

The analyst also suggested JB Hi-Fi will continue to execute, but rates it a sell on valuation grounds.

Shares are down 9.5% to $106.50 on Monday lunchtime.

By Tom Richardson.

Citi on lithium's surge

[12:31 pm] Citi has weighed in on the surge in lithium prices this morning after Chinese producer CATL said it will halt production at a key Jiangxi mine.

The suspension is tipped to take around 9,000 tonnes a month of production out of lithium carbonate markets.

"While we don't expect the removal of ~9k/t month of LCE to result in a hard deficit, we expect the news would bolster sentiment in the short term and will monitor high-frequency data for signs of a de-stock," Citi said.

"On spot FX/ex-lithium commodities, the lithium equities PLS, IGO, MIN and LTR are pricing in ~US$1200/t, ~US$1300/t, ~US$800/t and ~$1350/t respectively vs spot of ~US$825/t."

Citi is neutral on Pilbara Minerals, but rates small-cap Patriot Metals as a buy.

By Tom Richardson.

Australian shares hit a record high

[12:17 pm] The benchmark S&P ASX 200 hit a record high of 8,852 points this morning as a rally in lithium stocks helped the index inch 0.5% higher.

Among the large lithium bellwethers Pilbara Minerals has jumped 11.9% to $2.16, with Mineral Resources climbing 9.2% to $37.12.

By Tom Richardson.

CAR Group reverses early dip

[11:34 am] Shares in CAR Group opened 5% lower, currently trading around breakeven. The result contained no surprises (as the company pre-announced results last month).

• Revenue up 4.2% to $1.144bn vs. $1.146bn ests (0.3% miss)

• Underlying EBITDA up 10.7% to $641m vs. $640.2m ests (0.1% beat)

• EBITDA margin up 330 bps to 56.0% vs. 55.8% ests (23 bp beat)

• Underlying NPAT up 10.3% to $377m vs. $378.2m ests (0.3% miss)

• Full-year dividend up 9.6% to 80 cents per share (in-line)

"Quantitative FY26 guidance has been provided (a departure from CAR's prior method of guiding) and is broadly in-line (0 to -1% at the mid-point) with consensus expectations," said RBC Capital Markets analyst Wei-Weng Chen.

"While guidance (at the mid-point) represents y/y margin contraction and a very modest downgrade to consensus earnings expectations, consensus still sits within CAR's guidance range. Overall, we believe investors should be reasonably satisfied with the result and guide."

Iress dives 9% on poor results

[11:25 am] Iress opened 4.7% lower, and currently down 9.8% after reporting a mixed set of numbers for 1H25.

• Revenue down 3.1% to $299.5m

• Adjusted EBITDA down 3.9% to $64.4m

• Adjusted EBITDA margin down 18 bps to 21.5%

• Underlying EPS down 0.5% to 17.6 cents per share

• Reaffirmed FY25 EBITDA guidance of $127-135m and UPAT of $65-73m

The main drag was weaker-than-expected free cash flow, potential leadership changes and expectations more cost cutting efforts.

Analysts take on Nick Scali

[11:18 am] Nick Scali shares rallied 6.8% last Friday after the company reported mixed FY25 results, with strong ANZ numbers offset by weaker UK trading. The strong share price response was largely in response to accelerating sales and healthy gross margins, as well as an encouraging margin outlook for the UK.

• Jefferies – Maintains buy, raised target from $22.00 to $23.50. Solid demand continues, with UK rebranding disruptions short term; minimal uplift needed for UK profitability and rate cuts expected to support growth.

• JPMorgan – Maintains overweight, raised target from $19.50 to $21.50. UK profitability path is clear, ANZ trading strong, and macro tailwinds expected to accelerate sales momentum.

• Jarden – Upgrades to overweight from neutral, raised target from $17.71 to $20.68. ANZ outperformance eased concerns, margins held up despite promotions, with freight savings and slower UK ramp-up factored in.

Lithium stocks surge on CATL mine closure

[11:13 am] Over the weekend, CATL announced the suspension of its Jiangxi mine for three months, sending lithium stocks broadly higher.

Names like Liontown Resources, Pilbara Minerals and MinRes are up 22%, 15% and 11% respectively.

" While we don't expect the removal of ~9k/t month of LCE to result in a hard deficit, we expect the news would bolster sentiment in the short term," Citi analysts said in a note this morning.

JB Hi-Fi fades early strength

[11:10 am] JB Hi-Fi opened 2.0% higher and briefly tagged a record high of $120.86 after its FY25 results broadly beat market expectations.

• Sales of $10.55bn vs. $10.50bn (0.4% beat)

• Underlying NPAT of $476.1m vs. $472.3m (0.8% beat)

• Final dividend of 105 cents per share plus special dividend of 100 cents per share

• From FY26, to increase dividend payout ratio to a range of 70-80% of NPAT (from 65%)

• CEO Terry Smart to retire effective 3-Oct, replaced by current COO Nick Wells

Overall, JB Hi-Fi reported a solid set of numbers, broadly in-line with market expectations alongside a much anticipated special dividend. The only problem is that the stock (or was) trading at a PE of 28x.

Good morning!

[11:00 am] Picked the wrong date for a late start. Lots of catalysts flying around this morning (CATL mine closure, a handful of high-profile reporters, big announcements from Tuas and DigiCo etc.)