ASX 200 Live Today - Friday, 6th March

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Friday, March 6. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. We'll be wrapping the blog up around 2:00 pm AEST. Let us know how we can make it even better.

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New updates

ASX 200 sharply lower, worst week since March 2025

[2:14 pm] The ASX 200 is down 1.23%, slightly off session lows of -1.44%, with breadth leaning negative (62% of constituents in the red). Defensives are holding up, with Telcos (+1.50%), Utilities (+0.40%) and Healthcare (+0.14%) providing some cushion. The standout is Tech (+4.0%), which has surprised to the upside, though it makes sense given the rotation out of frothier parts of the market, record short interest in US software stocks, and the emerging narrative around Anthropic positioning itself as a partner and augmentation tool for software rather than an outright replacement. Elsewhere, commodities remain the epicentre of volatility, with wide trading ranges, sharp falls one session, sharp bounces the next. The Iran conflict continues to dish out fresh headlines and catalysts. The main concern is the duration and impact on energy prices. Evercore ISI analysis shows that WTI crude priced around US$93-97 a barrel would signal negative 12-month forward equity returns. Data back to 1985 shows that “what matters for stocks is where the price is relative to its 24-month moving average". When oil trades 35%-50% above the 24-month average, forward equity returns generally turn negative, strategists led by Julian Emanuel write in a note.

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Tech stocks holding session highs

[1:18 pm] Tech posted another session of sustained gains, with investors showing little appetite to take profits or cut losses. The S&P/ASX 200 Tech Index is currently up 3.87%, down from session highs of 4.45%.

Pro Medicus is a standout gainer, up 9.6% to the highest since 12 February. On this day, the company missed 1H26 earnings expectations due to contract timing. If PME can hold these levels, it will mark the best session since 26 September, 2023.

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Bapcor block trade crosses at 70 cents

[1:09 pm] A massive 36 million share block trade just crossed for Bapcor, at 70 cents per share, representing 7.7% of the company.

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Gold stocks smashed

[12:12 pm] Another heavy day for gold miners, with the S&P/ASX All Ords Gold Index down 5.3%. It's now on a four day skid, down 13.1% to a fresh one-month low. Previous pullbacks to the 50-day (green) have all been relatively sharp but well-supported.

S&P/ASX All Ords Gold Index daily price chart (Source: TradingView)

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China toughens BHP iron ore buying restrictions as standoff deepens

[12:05 pm] China Mineral Resources Group (CMRG) has escalated enforcement of its purchase restrictions on BHP cargoes, warning traders to stop buying dollar-denominated products and reselling them to Chinese buyers.

• CMRG has summoned domestic and foreign traders in recent weeks after finding some were circumventing the ban, signalling tougher enforcement despite lacking formal regulatory authority.

• The restrictions now cover all new dollar-denominated BHP products and a complete ban on Jimblebar fines and Jinbao varieties, though Mining Area C fines and Newman lumps remain accessible via term contracts or through CMRG directly.

• The standoff dates to September when CMRG first ordered mills to stop buying Jimblebar blend fines, stemming from a months-long breakdown in long-term contract negotiations between BHP and the state-backed buyer.

• BHP iron ore inventories have been building at Chinese ports since the curbs took effect, with some cargoes being diverted to other markets. The renewed warning is expected to create fresh challenges for BHP as it seeks to market April shipments.

Company page: BHP Group (BHP)

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Iran conflict drives refining margin upside for Viva Energy

[11:37 am] UBS says rising Asian refining margins, driven by the Hormuz disruption, present material earnings upside for Viva Energy's Geelong refinery.

• Viva sources less than 10% of its crude from the Middle East directly, but imports 75% and 83% of its diesel and jet fuel sales volumes respectively from Asia, making it exposed to tightening regional product supply and rising margins.

• The Minas 211 and 321 refining margin benchmarks are up 65% and 79% since Friday, with further upside expected following China's directive to suspend refined product exports. If other Asian nations follow suit, regional product cracks could rise materially further.

• The analyst estimates VEA's 1Q26 Geelong Refining Margin will reach US$10.70/bbl if current conditions persist through March, 14% above consensus of US$9.45/bbl and adding roughly $20m to refining EBITDA for the quarter.

• Australia currently holds 25-26 days of consumption cover for diesel and petrol. UBS does not expect a physical supply shortage provided Hormuz transit resumes within a month, but sees price upside risk in the interim.

• Price target unchanged at $2.40, with VEA trading at 8.4x 2027e EBIT vs. a historical average of 9.5x.

Company page: Viva Energy Group (VEA)

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Intraday runners: Pro Medicus, Wisetech

[10:58 am] Tech stocks continue to catch a bid, with names like Pro Medicus and Wisetech up 5-6% from the open.

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Tech stocks eye one-month high

[10:33 am] The S&P/ASX 200 Tech Index is up 2.7% in early trade, this follows a 4.5% rally on Thursday. The index is on track to close above its 20-day moving average for the first time since 3-Oct-25. This move mirrors the US-listed iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF, which has rallied 13.8% in the last eight sessions to a fresh one-month high. The move is consistent with a capitulation low, coming as US software stocks had hit record short interest.

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Viva Energy and Ampol extend gains

[10:25 am] Refiners Viva Energy (+2.9%) and Ampol (+1.4%) continue to trend higher after rallying 11.8% and 8.5% respectively on Thursday.

Around 2:00 pm yesterday, China ordered its largest oil refiners to immediately suspend diesel and gasoline exports, prioritising domestic energy security as the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz cuts off crude supplies from the Gulf.

• China's NDRC instructed refiners to stop signing new export contracts and negotiate cancellation of existing agreements, with exceptions only for jet and bunker fuel in bonded storage and supplies to Hong Kong and Macau.

• China receives close to half its oil imports from the Gulf, including almost all Iranian shipments, making it acutely exposed to the Hormuz disruption despite efforts in recent years to diversify supply.

• China is Asia's third-largest fuel exporter behind South Korea and Singapore. The move mirrors steps taken by refiners across Japan, Indonesia and India, which have also begun cutting run rates and suspending exports as Gulf crude flows dry up.

Australia has approximately 30 days of fuel reserves, the highest in a decade but well below the IEA standard for 90 days. Approximately 90% of refined fuel is imported from Singapore (~26%), Korea (~15%), Malaysia (~15%), China (~15%) and Japan (~12%).

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Top ASX 200 gainers

[10:19 am] Droneshield tops the leaderboard while battered tech stocks continue to rally against the tide. A name like Pro Medicus is up 11% in the last three sessions but still down 42% year-to-date.

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Top ASX 200 decliners

[10:19 am] Copper, uranium, rare earth and gold miners are trading sharply lower as the Iran conflict begins to spark global growth and inflation concerns.

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ASX 200 tumbles towards a one-month low

[10:10 am] ASX 200 down 1.23% in early trade, now trading at the lowest since 9 February. The index has now dipped 4.0% in the last four sessions, with year-to-date gains evaporating from a peak of 5.5% to 1.3%.

Tech (+0.4%) has managed to hold up incredibly well over the past few days (but then again, the sector was down ~45% heading into the Iran war).

Materials (-3.7%) dip as commodity prices traded broadly lower overnight (ex-energy). It appears that miners are starting to fall more aggressively than the underlying commodity, likely pricing in potential cost headwinds from higher energy prices and other headwinds (e.g. China set a GDP growth target of 4.5-5.0% for 2026, the lowest target since 1991).

ASX 200 sectors (Source: Market Index)

ASX 200 daily chart (Source: TradingView)

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Star Entertainment's former CEO and legal chief found to have breached duties

[9:40 am] Australia's Federal Court has ruled that two former senior executives of Star Entertainment Group violated their duties under the Corporations Act in relation to money laundering and criminal activity risks at the casino operator.

• Former CEO Matthias Bekier was found to have breached his duties across three areas: i) failure to act on a KPMG report identifying AML deficiencies, ii) failure to manage risks from junket operator Suncity's exclusive gaming room (Salon 95), and iii) failure to manage and escalate the improper use of China UnionPay cards to the board.

• Former Chief Legal and Risk Officer Paula Martin was found to have breached her duties by failing to properly inform the board about Suncity risks and by playing a role in misleading NAB about the use of CUP cards by casino customers.

• Suncity was Star's largest junket, generating turnover of $2.1bn, $4bn and $5.9bn for Star in FY17, FY18 and FY19 respectively.

• ASIC's case against seven former non-executive directors was dismissed, with the Court finding they did not breach their duties.

• Penalties and disqualification periods for Bekier and Martin are yet to be determined, with a further hearing to be scheduled. Two other former executives, Harry Theodore and Gregory Hawkins, previously admitted breaches and were disqualified from managing public companies for 18 and nine months respectively.

Source: ASIC

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Why is gold falling?

[9:33 am] Gold slipped 1.0% overnight to US$2,083/oz and is down 4.5% over the last three sessions. This marks a puzzling move for an asset widely viewed as the go-to safe haven in times of geopolitical stress.

The latest Bank of America Global Fund Manager Survey flagged long gold as the most crowded trade. In a correlated selloff (where equities, gold and bitcoin are all falling together), crowded positions tend to get unwound as investors delever, raise cash and cover losses/margin calls elsewhere.

The other thing to remember is that when Russia invaded Ukraine on 24 February 2022, gold experienced a short-lived rally (up 7.7% by 8-Mar-22), followed by an eight month downturn where it dipped ~20%. I guess in the midst of a genuine energy crisis, would you rather energy security or gold bars?

Gold price chart (Source: TradingView)

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Commodities broadly lower overnight

[9:15 am] A relatively weak overnight session for resources, with most base and precious metals down 1-2%.

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Oil: Look at that price range!

[9:10 am] Oil prices continued on a volatile path higher. The last four trading sessions have all logged massive price ranges (from session low to high) of 8.8%, 5.3%, 10.7% and 9.5%. Despite prices closing at the highest since January 2025, the S&P 500 Energy sector struggled for upside, up just 0.59% overnight.

WTI crude daily price chart (Source: TradingView)

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Oil has surged 17% since 27-Feb

[9:04 am] Crude has staged its sharpest rally in years as the Iran conflict moves from geopolitical risk to active supply disruption, with the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed to normal tanker traffic.

• Brent is up ~17% from its 27 February close, touching US$80 a barrel for the first time since January 2025

• Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has near-halted amid ongoing attacks on shipping, with insurance availability and cost cited as key impediments alongside safety concerns.

• Gulf producers face the prospect of having to shut in production as onshore storage fills with crude that cannot be exported.

• Iran has demonstrated willingness to target energy infrastructure directly, with strikes reported at Saudi Arabia's Ras Tanura facility and the Fujairah and Mussafah oil terminals in the UAE, raising the stakes for regional supply continuity.

• China is reportedly negotiating with Iran for safe oil and gas passage through the strait, a development that could complicate US-led efforts to manage the crisis and underscores the divergence in how major economies are responding to the supply shock.

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Hedge funds and instos have been de-risking US equities for weeks

[9:01 am] Positioning data suggests the selloff has been orderly rather than panic-driven. Goldman Sachs notes hedge funds sold US equities in 9 of the prior 11 weeks, while Morgan Stanley QDS flags that investors hold a near-record amount of S&P 500 put protection. JPMorgan says the reduction in risk has pushed its US Tactical Positioning Monitor to signal an "attractive" set-up.

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China sets most modest growth target since 1991

[9:00 am] Beijing has downgraded its GDP growth target to 4.5%-5% for 2026, the first formal reduction since 2023, acknowledging that the export and investment-led model driving decades of expansion is under strain.

• The lowered target reflects structural pressures including: fiscal support held roughly flat vs. 2025, the consumer trade-in program was trimmed to 250bn yuan from 300bn yuan, and no new commitments to strengthen the social safety net that economists say is suppressing household spending.

• Exports accounted for roughly a third of China's 5% growth last year, the highest share since 1997, leaving the economy heavily exposed to trade protectionism.

• Household consumption sits at just 40% of GDP, well below the global average of 55% and the 60% typical of advanced economies, yet the new five-year plan contains no numerical target for lifting that share.

• Beijing is betting on technology-led growth rather than demand stimulus, with R&D spending is targeted to rise 7% annually through 2030.

• Infrastructure investment will be supported via an 800bn yuan policy bank funding tool, up from 500bn yuan in 2025. The government issued its strongest pledge yet to end deflation after economy-wide prices fell for three consecutive years.

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BlackRock writes $25m private credit loan to zero

[8:57 am] BlackRock TCP Capital Corp has marked a loan to Amazon aggregator Infinite Commerce Holdings from par to zero in a single quarter, the second sudden wipeout to hit the fund in recent months.

• The $25m loan was valued at 100 cents on the dollar in Sep-25 and written to zero by December 31, part of broader losses that prompted BlackRock to flag a 19% markdown to the fund's net asset value in late January.

• BlackRock TCP also partially wrote down its position in SellerX in the same quarter.

• BlackRock TCP cut its dividend to 17 cents a share from 25 cents, sending shares lower. The fund attributed 91% of its valuation cuts to deals underwritten in 2021 or earlier, strained by sustained higher interest rates.

• The losses add to broader scrutiny of the $1.8 trillion private credit market, with Blackstone allowing investors to redeem a record 7.9% of shares from its flagship private credit fund and Apollo's Marc Rowan warning a shakeout is coming for the sector.

Source: Bloomberg

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Broadcom beats on earnings, flags $100bn AI chip revenue target for 2027

[8:53 am] Broadcom was one of the few bright spots overnight, with the stock up 4.8% after the company delivered a strong fiscal first quarter and issued guidance well ahead of expectations.

• Revenue up 29% year-on-year to $19.31bn vs. $19.18bn ests (1% beat)

• AI revenue up 106% year on year to $8.4bn, driven by custom AI accelerators and networking

• Q2 revenue guidance of $22.0bn well-ahead of $20.56bn ests, with adjusted profit margin of 68% vs. 66% ests

• CEO Tan confirmed active custom chip programs with Google, Anthropic, OpenAI and Meta, with multiple hyperscalers targeting gigawatt-scale deployments by 2027.

• Board authorised up to $10bn in new share buybacks through 2026

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Iran widens strikes across Gulf

[8:51 am] Tehran launched simultaneous missile and drone attacks across the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar and Kuwait on Thursday, signalling it retains meaningful strike capability despite significant attrition of its arsenal.

• Bahrain's oil refinery was set ablaze, explosions were reported near Abu Dhabi airport, and the US suspended embassy operations in Kuwait.

• NATO raised its ballistic missile defence posture after an Iranian missile was shot down heading toward Turkish airspace.

• Iran's foreign minister ruled out any ceasefire or negotiation, while the IRGC warned retaliatory strikes will intensify.

• The Strait of Hormuz remains largely shut to commercial traffic, with analysts expecting weeks before flows resume meaningfully. Saudi Arabia is diverting millions of barrels of crude to its Red Sea coast to maintain exports, while more than 23,000 flights to Middle East hubs have been cancelled since fighting began.

• Markets continue to deteriorate, with oil topping $81 a barrel, the 10-year Treasury yield risingfor a fourth straight day, freight rates have spiked, and gold extended gains.

Source: Bloomberg

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Iran conflict could run for up to eight weeks

[8:49 am] Pentagon officials offered a more cautious assessment of the conflict's trajectory Wednesday, with the defence secretary warning the campaign could stretch two months and acknowledging that not all Iranian strikes can be intercepted.

• Hegseth flagged the conflict could last anywhere from three to eight weeks, longer than earlier messaging, with the ultimate duration dependent on how the campaign unfolds. Trump has said he is prepared to go "far longer" than five weeks.

• Iran's ballistic missile launches are down 86% from day one of the campaign, with drone attacks down 73%, though Caine noted the decline may reflect Iran conserving its arsenal rather than depletion.

• A US submarine torpedoed and sank an Iranian warship in the Indian Ocean Wednesday, marking a significant escalation in the naval dimension of the conflict.

Source: AP

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White House scrambles to contain oil price fallout

[8:48 am] The Trump administration is urgently canvassing options to cool gasoline prices after its attack on Iran sent crude surging more than US$10 a barrel.

• US gasoline prices have jumped more than 25 cents in a week to $3.25 a gallon, now 13 cents above where they sat on Biden's last day in office, directly undermining one of Trump's key economic talking points.

• Options under consideration include a temporary gasoline tax holiday (requires Congress and offers no guarantee of pass-through), loosening sanctions on Russian oil shipments, and deploying US military to defend Middle East energy infrastructure.

• The Strait of Hormuz disruption is the core supply shock, as the waterway carries more than 20% of global crude tanker shipments.

• Iraq has already curtailed production, and Saudi Arabia may follow. European natural gas prices have spiked nearly 70% since Friday after Qatar halted LNG production.

• Trump has moved to stabilise shipping by offering US Navy escorts through the Strait and directing the Development Finance Corporation to provide political risk insurance for tankers, measures that provided only brief relief.

Source: Politico

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US Dollar heads for best week in over a year

[8:46 am] The US dollar is on track for its strongest weekly gain since November 2024, lifted by a flight to safety following US strikes on Iran and fading expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts.

• Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is up 1.4% this week, though the index remains roughly unchanged for the year and down around 8% since Trump's inauguration

• WTI crude has surged more than 17% since the US began bombing Iran on 28 February, stoking inflation fears and reducing the likelihood of Fed easing

• Friday's nonfarm payrolls report is the next key catalyst.

• The euro is the most exposed among major currencies, falling 1.7% against the dollar this week. TS Lombard warns that reduced energy flows and higher prices could shave as much as 0.9% off European GDP, raising stagflation risks

Source: Bloomberg

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"Sell America, Buy Asia" trade hits an inflection point

[8:43 am] The Iran war is forcing a reassessment of one of global markets' most crowded trades, with Asian equities bearing the brunt of the fallout.

• The MSCI Asia Pacific Index is down around 6% this week vs. a 0.1% slide in the S&P 500, with foreign investors selling $6.3bn of Taiwanese stocks in the first three days alone — on track for the second-largest weekly net outflow on record.

• Asia's outsized oil import dependency is the core vulnerability. Japan and South Korea source over 60% of oil imports via the Strait of Hormuz, while China, India and Indonesia rank among the world's largest oil importers. Goldman Sachs estimates a 20% rise in Brent crude would cut regional earnings by 2%.

• A stronger US dollar is compounding the pressure, now up up 1.3% this week, its biggest gain since November 2024.

• The US is relatively insulated as an energy exporter and safe-haven destination, with Barclays' Ajay Rajadhyaksha noting the Strait of Hormuz carries far greater risk for Europe and major Asian economies than for the US.

• Despite Thursday's partial rebound, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index still leads the S&P 500 by 7 percentage points year-to-date, leaving room for further unwinding of crowded positions, particularly in South Korea and Taiwan where recent AI-driven rallies pushed valuations higher.

Source: Bloomberg

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Good morning!

[8:31 am] ASX 200 futures are down 128 pts (-1.45%) as of 8:30 am AEDT.

The overnight session in a nutshell:

• Major US benchmarks lower but finished off worst levels

• Nasdaq still positive week-to-date, S&P 500 now down 0.7%

• Oil continues its volatile path higher as Middle East war showing no signs of negotiations and talks of an extended conflict timeline, Brent is testing the US$80 level for the first time since Jan-25

• Private credit remains a sore spot, with BlackRock slashing the value of a private loan to zero at the end of 2025, just three months after assessing it at 100 cents on the dollar