ASX 200 Live Today - Friday, 30th October

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Friday, October 30. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. We'll be wrapping the blog up around 2:00 pm AEST. Let us know how we can make it even better.

Civmec revenue jumps 70% as major resources projects ramp up

[9:05 am] Civmec made a strong start to FY27 as work ramped up on major resources and critical minerals projects, including BHP’s Port Hedland expansion and Iluka’s Eneabba refinery.

• Revenue rose 70% to $324m in the September quarter (1Q27), driven by its Construction division

• EBITDA was $35.1m, a 10.8% margin

• Net profit rose 75% to $18.4m

• The order book stands at ~$1.4bn, up 22% on $1.15bn a year earlier

• Civmec won the construction contract for Alcoa’s Wagerup gallium plant in WA, the largest of more than $220m in awards and extensions announced on 5 October

• The Commonwealth accepted the baseline schedule for the rest of the Arafura-class offshore patrol vessel program through to 2029

Company page: Civmec (CVL)

Count’s underlying earnings jump 67% as funds under management hit record

[9:00 am] Count started FY27 with strong earnings growth from its accounting partnerships and actuarial consulting, and is buying a stake in Brisbane accounting and advice firm Apiary.

• Revenue rose 23.2% to $52.1m in the September quarter (1Q27)

• Underlying EBITA rose 66.6% to $12.7m, lifting the margin to 24.5% from 18.1%

• Growth came from carry-over work in the Equity Partnership segment and strong actuarial consulting revenue

• Funds under management hit a record $6.7bn, up 31.3% y/y, including the Oracle Group acquisition

• Targeted annual cost synergies from Oracle (now Count Wealth) were raised to $1.25m, to be realised within 24 months

• Count is buying a 30% stake in Apiary, which had FY26 revenue of $3.5m, with completion expected on 1 December

Company page: Count (CUP)

Coles flags flat first-half supermarket earnings as competition and fuel costs bite

[8:57 am] Coles has tempered its first-half earnings outlook as cost-of-living pressures and heavy discounting from rivals slow supermarket sales growth.

• Group sales rose 2.2% to $11.2bn in the September quarter (1Q27)

• Supermarkets sales rose 3.6% to $10.3bn, with comparable sales growth slowing to 2.7% from 4.6% a year earlier

• eCommerce sales rose 22.9% to $1.6bn, lifting online penetration to 15.7% from 13.3%

• Liquor sales fell 1.3% to $831m, an improvement on the 2.5% decline in 4Q26

• Supermarkets sales growth has moderated in the first four weeks of 2Q27, while Liquor’s decline is tracking in line with 1Q27

• 1H27 Supermarkets EBIT is now expected to be flat on the prior year, citing investment in lower prices, competitor promotions and higher fuel costs

Company page: Coles Group (COL)

Capstone Copper posts record earnings but flags production at low end of guidance

[8:57 am] Capstone Copper booked record September quarter earnings on higher copper prices, while outages and rising input costs have pushed full-year output and costs to the weak end of guidance.

• Revenue rose 19% to US$712m, on a realised copper price of US$6.61/lb vs US$4.49/lb a year earlier

• Adjusted EBITDA rose 44% to a record US$358m, its eighth straight record quarter

• Adjusted net profit rose 90% to US$93.8m, while statutory net profit fell 60% to US$98.5m because the prior year included a US$209.5m impairment reversal

• Copper production fell 18% to 45,218t, and C1 cash costs rose 22% to US$2.95/lb on Pinto Valley outages and higher diesel and sulphuric acid prices

• 2026 production is tracking at the low end of 200–230kt guidance, costs at the high end of US$2.45–2.75/lb, and capex guidance was raised US$40m to US$830m

• Net debt fell to US$564m from US$780m at December

Company page: Capstone Copper (CSC)

Helia’s nine-month profit falls 32% as housing slowdown starts to lift claims

[8:50 am] A slowing housing market pushed mortgage arrears and claims higher at Helia in the September quarter, but the mortgage insurer kept its full-year guidance unchanged.

• YTD gross written premium fell 53% to $82.5m, hit by the loss of the CBA contract, the expanded 5% Deposit Scheme and slower home lending

• YTD insurance revenue fell 8% to $253.4m

• YTD net profit fell 32% to $136.5m, including $36.5m in 3Q26

• Claims were $5.1m in 3Q26 as house prices fell and the 90-day delinquency rate rose 4bps to 0.83%

• The capital coverage ratio rose to 2.01x from 1.85x a year earlier, well above the 1.4–1.6x target range

• FY26 insurance revenue guidance was held at $330–360m, with claims still expected to stay well below through-the-cycle levels

Company page: Helia Group (HLI)

ResMed lifts earnings 14% on sleep demand, holds FY27 guidance

[8:49 am] ResMed opened FY27 with solid demand for sleep devices and masks and used proceeds from the MatrixCare sale to step up buybacks.

• Revenue rose 6% to US$1.41bn in the September quarter (1Q27), up 7% in core constant currency

• Sleep revenue rose 10%, with devices up 9%, masks up 10% and Rest of World sleep up 12%

• Non-GAAP gross margin rose 50bps to 62.5%

• Non-GAAP EPS rose 14% to US$2.91, while GAAP EPS rose 23% to US$2.92, helped by the gain on the MatrixCare sale

• More than US$1bn was returned to shareholders, including US$936m of buybacks, and a quarterly dividend of US$0.66 per share (US$0.066 per CDI) was declared

• FY27 guidance was unchanged, with revenue of US$5.75–5.85bn, core constant currency growth of 5–7% and non-GAAP EPS of US$12.00–12.25

Company page: ResMed (RMD)

Vulcan’s first re-injection well beats flow assumptions as Lionheart build stays on track

[8:46 am] Vulcan Energy says its Lionheart lithium and geothermal project in Germany remains on schedule and on budget, with its latest well test supporting the project’s base case.

• Its first matrix re-injection well tested at about 64 litres per second, 60% above the ~40 litres per second assumed in its field development plan

• Lionheart construction is on schedule and on budget, with first production targeted for 2028

• First commercial-scale production of its VULSORB lithium extraction material began, needed to fill the extraction columns before commissioning

• €53.7m was received from strategic equity partners and €10.7m from German government grants, the first drawdowns from the €2.2bn Lionheart funding package

• Development spending was €88.8m in the September quarter, taking the YTD total to €256.8m

• Cash and term deposits totalled €209.4m at 30 September, down from €273.9m at 30 June, with the first debt drawdown expected in Q1 2027

Company page: Vulcan Energy Resources (VUL)

Sandisk NAND deal pipeline exceeds supply to end of decade

[8:35 am] Flash memory maker Sandisk says demand for long-term NAND supply agreements now outstrips what it can produce through to 2030, with AI data centres driving the bulk of bit growth.

• On supply agreements: About half of FY27 bits and two-thirds of FY28 bits are already committed, with more deals expected

• On customer quality: 95% of long-term agreements are with investment-grade companies that generated about $130bn in operating cash flow

• On data centre demand: Data centres are expected to account for more than 55% of NAND bit demand in 2027, up from 50% today

• On growth: Data centre bit demand is expected to grow about 40% next year, after more than doubling in 2026

Intel sees server CPU shortage running into 2028

[8:34 am] Intel says server CPU demand will outrun industry supply into 2028, even as an accelerating PC downturn weighs on its client business.

• On server CPU supply: “We expect the industry to remain supply constrained throughout 2027 and into 2028”

• On server CPU growth: “We now expect industry server CPU units to grow more than 30% in both 2026 and 2027”

• On the server CPU market: It could grow as much as five-fold over the next five years, from about $40bn to more than $200bn, driven largely by agentic AI workloads

• On PCs: “The pace of the PC correction has accelerated over the last two months... For 2027, we’re planning for the PC unit TAM to decline roughly 10%”

• On Nova Lake: “Nova Lake, our first Intel 18A-P client product, is tracking ahead of schedule”

Amazon flags bigger capex in 2027 as AI demand soaks up capacity

[8:33 am] Amazon says customers are consuming new AWS capacity almost as quickly as it can be installed, with capital spending set to climb again in 2027.

• On capex: Amazon still expects about $220bn in cash capex for 2026, with spending to increase meaningfully in 2027

• On AWS returns: “...have even more conviction than we already had that the investment we’re making in AWS will yield a much larger revenue and free cash flow generating business than we would have imagined a couple years ago”

• On Bedrock: Token volume grew nearly 17x year-on-year, making it the fastest-growing multibillion-dollar service in AWS history

• On advertising: Ad revenue rose 12% to $19.64bn vs $20.82bn ests (6% miss), with an earlier Prime Day pulling spend into 2Q26

• On AI shopping agents: “The answer is no... Few customers are doing much shopping this way yet, as the experience is still not great, nor more convenient than coming to a retailer directly”

Marvell sinks 13% on report it’s nearing mega deal for Lumentum

[8:32 am] Marvell is in advanced talks to buy laser maker Lumentum, according to Bloomberg, in a move to secure optical technology and capacity for the AI buildout.

• Marvell fell 13.2% on the report, while Lumentum closed up 0.6% after rising as much as 5% intraday

• A deal could be announced as soon as next week

• Lumentum is valued at about $83bn, against Marvell’s roughly $221bn

• Lumentum makes lasers and optical components used to speed up connections between AI systems, a key bottleneck in data centre buildouts

• Both stocks have rallied hard this year, with Marvell up more than 190% YTD and Lumentum up 140%

Source: YahooFinance

Shell profit nearly doubles on record refining margins, lifts buyback

[8:31 am] Shell’s September quarter profit was its strongest since 2022 as the Iran war disrupted global energy supplies and lifted fuel and gas prices.

• Adjusted earnings rose 99% y/y to US$10.81bn, vs US$10.33bn ests (4.6% beat)

• Integrated gas earnings were US$3.04bn vs US$2.93bn ests (3.8% beat)

• Upstream earnings were US$3.19bn vs US$3.10bn ests (2.9% beat)

• Refining margins hit a record US$42 a barrel, up from US$24 in the June quarter and US$11.6 a year earlier

• The quarterly buyback was lifted to US$5bn from US$3bn

Source: Reuters

Trump delays robotics and machinery tariffs ahead of midterms

[8:29 am] President Trump has held off on tariffs for robotics and industrial machinery imports, opting for negotiations with trading partners instead.

• A Commerce Department probe found the imports threaten US national security, but Trump stopped short of imposing tariffs

• Officials have 180 days to negotiate with trading partners and report back, leaving the door open to later tariffs

• The probe covered CNC machining centres, industrial robots, stamping presses and laser and water cutting machinery

• Trump delayed tariffs on wind turbines earlier this month on similar terms

• The delays push any new tariffs past next week’s midterm elections, where cost of living is the dominant issue

Source: Bloomberg

ECB President Lagarde to step down early

[8:29 am] Christine Lagarde will leave the European Central Bank about eight months before her term ends, as eurozone inflation runs at a three-year high.

• Lagarde will step down on 7 February 2027, with her term originally due to end in late October 2027

• Eurozone leaders will now choose a successor, and the timing lets French President Macron influence the pick before April’s French presidential election

• Eurozone inflation hit 3.8% in September, nearly double the ECB’s 2% target, driven by the Iran war

• The ECB left rates unchanged on Thursday, with Lagarde playing down the risk that inflation spreads beyond energy

Microsoft draws over $100bn in orders for first US bond sale since 2017

[8:26 am] Microsoft became the latest tech giant to tap debt markets to fund its AI buildout, drawing blowout demand for its first US investment-grade bond in more than nine years.

• Microsoft is raising about $25bn, its first US investment-grade bond sale since 2017

• Orders topped $100bn, more than four times the size of the offer

• The sale has up to 10 tranches with maturities of 2 to 40 years, managed by Wells Fargo, JPMorgan and UBS

• CFO Amy Hood flagged the move on Wednesday’s earnings call, saying Microsoft would seek extra funding when it was attractive to preserve cash flow and financial flexibility

• Microsoft expects positive free cash flow through FY27 (to June 2027), unlike hyperscaler peers that are now burning cash

• Alphabet burned $9.1bn in the September quarter, and Meta reported its first cash burn in more than a decade last week

US economy grows at fastest pace in a year as inflation heats up

[8:26 am] US growth beat expectations in the September quarter on the back of AI investment, but inflation is accelerating and the White House is flagging possible Fed rate rises.

• GDP grew at a 3.4% annualised rate in the September quarter vs 3.1% ests, up from 2.2% in the June quarter

• Business investment surged 12.7%, with the AI buildout the main driver

• Consumer spending rose 3.8%, matching the June quarter’s pace

• Net exports were a drag, as exports fell and AI-related imports rose

• The PCE price index rose 0.5% in September, the largest monthly gain in six months

• NEC Director Kevin Hassett said the Fed would probably act if October inflation comes in “really high”

Alphabet suffers record fall as search miss revives AI disruption fears

[8:25 am] Alphabet’s September quarter result revived fears that AI tools are eating into Google Search, overshadowing booming demand for its cloud services.

• Shares fell 12.6%, Alphabet’s largest one-day fall on record, erasing about $500bn in market value

• Search revenue rose 12% y/y to ~$63bn, missing ests for a second straight quarter

• Search growth has slowed from 19% in Q1 and 17% in Q2, despite query growth at a five-year high, with management blaming FX and warning the currency hit will grow in Q4

• Cloud revenue more than doubled to ~$31bn, with a backlog of ~$560bn, a little over half of which is expected to be recognised within 24 months

• Free cash flow was -$9.1bn, three times the deficit ests had expected, after -$5.9bn in Q2

• 2026 capex guidance was held at $195–205bn (midpoint $200bn), with spending to rise significantly in 2027

Good morning!

[8:13 am] ASX 200 futures are up 32 pts (+0.35%). Here's what happened overnight:

• Major US benchmarks mixed, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq's three-day winning streak ending after a tech sell-off led by Alphabet's 12.3% drop, while health care and small caps outperformed in a broad defensive rotation

  • S&P 500 (-0.30%), Equal-weight S&P 500 (+1.20%)

  • Nasdaq (-1.38%), Dow (-0.25%), Russell 2000 (+1.01%)

• Alphabet’s record one-day market value wipeout, driven by a search miss and negative free cash flow, revived doubts over AI spending returns ahead of Amazon’s result

• Treasuries firmed and December Fed hike bets fell to 76% after in-line PCE inflation and stronger-than-expected Q3 GDP growth, as the ECB held rates and Lagarde set an early exit