ASX 200 Live Today - Friday, 18th September

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Friday, September 18. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. We'll be wrapping the blog up around 2:00 pm AEST. Let us know how we can make it even better.

Finbar starts construction at Romeo

[9:12 am] Finbar has begun construction on the third and final stage of its Applecross Precinct in Perth.

• 103 sales achieved since the March launch, representing 66% of the 155-lot project and $121.1m in presales, including all three ground-floor commercial lots

• 18 lots sold for $26.3m since 1 August, with investors accounting for around 50% of purchasers, which CEO Ronald Chan flagged as encouraging given the headwinds that followed the negative gearing and CGT reforms announced in the May 2026 Federal Budget

• Group pre-sales value now $536m, or about 67% of available product sold across current projects, with 37 sales worth $44.3m across off-the-plan and completed stock in the seven weeks from 1 August

• Chan said the recent activity points to underlying buyer demand and continued appeal of Finbar's product notwithstanding broader market uncertainty

• Romeo carries an estimated end value of about $192m, comprising 152 apartments plus three commercial lots, with completion targeted in H1 FY29

• Five-year pipeline of $1.95bn across more than 1,900 units, which the company says supports earnings visibility and growth

Company page: Finbar Group (FRI)

Macmahon to acquire Aspect Engineering Solutions

[9:04 am] Macmahon has agreed to buy 100% of Aspect Engineering Solutions, adding engineering and minerals processing to its mining services platform.

• Headline enterprise value of $75m on a debt-free, cash-free basis, equating to roughly 5.0x FY26 EBIT against Macmahon's referenced trading multiple of 11.4x as at 30 June 2026

• Aspect generated FY26 revenue of about $75m and EBIT of $15.2m, with more than 295 direct employees and over 50 active clients across resources, infrastructure and energy

• Contracted backlog of about $66.6m as at 31 May 2026, with an unweighted pipeline of roughly $225.8m

• Consideration funded from existing cash, structured as $30m upfront, $30m of retention payments over five years and earn-outs of $15m to $30m over three to five years

• Expected to be underlying EPS accretive from inception at around 6.2% pre-synergies, with a base case IRR of 40.4%

• Aspect will be run as a standalone business retaining its brand and leadership, with completion subject to regulatory clearances and expected in the current calendar year

A ~$2.1bn company making a ~$75m acquisition that's 6.2% EPS accretive? Sounds pretty good no?

Company page: Macmahon Holdings (MAH)

Forrestania's Zenith bid proceeds after Panel orders

[9:03 am] The Takeovers Panel has issued orders in the Zenith Minerals matters, but they do not block the offer from continuing.

• Forrestania has acceptances from Zenith shareholders holding around 49.23% of shares, giving it a relevant interest in approximately 58.33%

• The Panel issued orders on 17 September following a declaration of unacceptable circumstances, requiring Forrestania to undertake certain steps, which it says it will comply with

• A further supplementary bidder's statement will be sent to Zenith shareholders covering the information required by the Panel and bid instruction matters

• Executive Chairman David Geraghty said the Forrestania offer is the only one available to Zenith shareholders, and that the company looks to free the offer of all remaining conditions at the earliest opportunity

• Forrestania has completed its acquisition of the Edna May Gold Project and expects to commence gold production moving into the start of 2027

Company page: Forrestania Resources (FRS)

A broad-based bounce for commodities

[9:00 am] Commodities traded broadly higher, though most of the move was a bounce off the sharp pullback of recent days.

• Copper up 2.74% to US$6.63/lb, recovering half its recent losses after US refined copper tariffs stalled and broader markets weakened

• Gold up 1.81% to US$4,341/oz, reversing three days of declines though still trending lower since the 25 August high

• Aluminium up 0.48% to US$3,274/t, with prices choppy over the past two months

• NYSE-listed BHP rose 2.8% to US$86.56, Rio Tinto up 2.3% to US$98.04, Newmont up 2.1% to US$124.39, Alcoa up 1.5% to US$46.97

• TSX-listed Capstone Copper up 5.3% to C$14.22, FireFly Metals up 4.1% to C$1.76, PMET Resources up 3.1% to C$4.27

Copper, gold, aluminium and silver price charts (Source: TradingView)

A 5-handle on the 10-year has been the worst zone for equities

[8:47 am] Since 1962, S&P 500 forward returns weaken when the US 10-year yield is trading between 5-6%, according to Bespoke Investment Group.

• With the 10-year in the 5% handle, the S&P 500 has averaged just 0.4% over the following three months, the weakest of any yield range apart from the 14%-plus bucket

• Six-month returns average 1.3% and one-year returns 4.1%, against all-period averages of 4.4% and 9.1% respectively

• Hit rates fall too, with only 56% of three-month periods positive, 57% of six-month and 64% of one-year, versus 66%, 70% and 75% across all periods

• The 5% handle covers 10.5% of observations since 1962, clustered in the late 1960s, the late 1990s through 2002 and briefly in 2007

Source: Bespoke Investment Group

JPMorgan drops its oil baseline view

[8:43 am] JPMorgan's commodities team says it no longer has a base case for crude for the first time since the Iran conflict began.

• JPMorgan wrote it has no baseline view on oil, saying "we simply don't know how to model the endgame," and that the assumption Middle East disruptions are temporary is "becoming increasingly difficult to sustain"

• The bank had assumed economic red lines the Trump administration would not cross, but six months on says "many of those lines have been crossed, yet the exit strategy is less clear, not more"

• On inventories, the team concluded fears of stocks being exhausted as a balancing mechanism are premature, with ample cushion for a prolonged disruption before operational stress levels are reached

• That inventory buffer limits the need for crude prices to move materially higher in JPMorgan's view, despite the bank having modelled a dramatic collapse in global oil inventories back in April

Trump flags possible end to Iran war as crude retreats

[8:39 am] Oil pulled back for a second session as Saudi Arabia rerouted exports through Hormuz, though Brent remains above $100.

• Trump said the US is "hopefully" toward the end of the nearly seven-month war and has spoken with Tehran directly, with a meeting of Gulf Cooperation Council leaders planned on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly next Tuesday

• Saudi Arabia is seeking to restore about half the damaged East-West pipeline's capacity within days and full operations in roughly six weeks, with Rapidan expecting Saudi exports to fall 400,000 barrels per day this month

• Kpler's Matt Smith noted ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman have risen to 2.7 million barrels per day from 1.5 million in August, with cargoes loaded outside Hormuz to avoid Iranian attack risk

• European gasoil and US ultra-low sulfur diesel futures both settled at record highs, with US retail diesel hitting a record just shy of $6.40 a gallon, and Goldman Sachs noting refiners are prioritising diesel over gasoline

• DBS Bank's base case for the fourth quarter assumes US-Iran tensions ease and Brent stabilises at $85 to $95, while Geopolitical Strategy's Michael Feller warns the war could run to late 2028 without a post-midterms deal

BOJ set for fastest hiking pace since 1990

[8:38 am] The Bank of Japan is expected to lift its policy rate to 1.25% from 1% on Friday, the second increase in three months.

• All BOJ watchers surveyed by Bloomberg expect a 25 basis point hike to 1.25%, the shortest gap between increases since March 1990 and Governor Kazuo Ueda's sixth

• With the move almost fully priced by overnight index swaps, focus shifts to whether Ueda signals a faster track, with over 90% of surveyed analysts expecting a follow-up hike by January

• The yen weakened as much as 1% overnight to 156.42 per dollar after the Fed's hawkish hike, with SMBC Nikko seeing 158 as the next upside target for dollar-yen if the meeting reads dovish

• Citigroup strategists including Osamu Takashima see dollar-yen as high as 159 near term, but argue repeated intervention and attractive JGB valuations point to a major top reached this summer

• Japan spent a record ¥15.4 trillion ($98.6 billion) on intervention in the month through 26 August, and another push toward 160 could test official tolerance

• Overnight yen volatility hit its highest since early August, while leveraged traders halved bearish yen wagers in the week through 8 September

Source: Bloomberg

Triple witching collides with Fed and BOJ

[8:36 am] Tonight's US quarterly derivatives expiry lands two days after a Fed hike and on the final day of the BOJ's September meeting.

• Citadel Securities estimated $6.2 trillion of US options exposure was set to expire on 18 September based on data through 27 August, about 23% of total US options exposure in its dataset

• September tracking to surpass June's $7.7 trillion expiration, though the figure measures gross notional rather than cash traded, with many contracts expiring worthless or replaced with later expiries

• Futures rolling began early, with CME listing 14 September as the customary roll date, meaning heavy expiry-week volume can reflect September exposure shifting into December contracts

• Settlement is spread across the session, with standard SPX options and index futures settling on the open via a Special Opening Quotation and PM-settled SPXW contracts landing later

• Hedging flows around crowded strikes can amplify the initial macro move, so post-expiry sessions are the cleaner read on whether a move reflects repricing or positioning

Good morning!

[8:21 am] ASX 200 futures are up 44 pts (+0.50%). Here's what happened overnight:

• Wall Street clawed back most of the week's losses, though only the second advance in nine sessions

  • S&P 500 (+1.14%), down just 0.25% for the week

  • Equal-weight S&P 500 (+0.49%) underperformed the cap-weighted index by 65 bps as sectors like Financials (-0.10%) and Staples (-0.01%) lagged

  • Nasdaq (+1.69%), Dow (+0.61%) and Russell 2000 (+0.55%)

• A second straight fall in oil, with Brent down 1.6% to US$103.92 a barrel, pulling the 10-year Treasury yield back below 5.0% and snapping its eight-day rising streak

• Friday brings a collision of the quarter's triple witching options expiry and a Bank of Japan decision, with a 25 basis point hike to 1.25% widely expected