ASX 200 Live Today - Friday, 10th July

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Friday, July 10. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. We'll be wrapping the blog up around 2:00 pm AEST. Let us know how we can make it even better.

Elevra Lithium lifts June quarter production by 15%

[9:01 am] Elevra's North American Lithium operation in Québec delivered its second-highest quarterly production, but realised pricing sat below spot due to contractual lagged pricing mechanisms.

• Spodumene concentrate production up 15% to approximately 54,479dmt from the March quarter, the second-highest quarterly output at NAL to date

• Sales of approximately 33,977dmt at an average realised price of around US$919 per dmt sold, FOB on a provisional basis, below spot due to lagged pricing

• May production of approximately 22,202dmt set a monthly record, with full-year production totalling approximately 197,968dmt

• Provisional inventory on hand of 40,863dmt at quarter end, reflecting customer delivery schedules

• June quarter shipments carried a lagged pricing mechanism reflecting October 2025 to March 2026 market prices and included the final volumes under Elevra's most substantial legacy contract

• Realised pricing from Q1 FY27 is expected to align more closely with prevailing spot pricing

Company page: Elevra Lithium (ELV)

Commodities bounced overnight

[9:01 am] Commodity prices traded broadly higher overnight, with dual-listed names like BHP and Newmont closing 2.0% and 1.7% higher, respectively.

Sandfire America upgrades Black Butte PFS

[8:49 am] The addition of the Lowry deposit lifts mine life to 12 years and improves project economics, positioning Black Butte as one of the highest-grade undeveloped underground copper projects in the US.

• Mine life extended 50% to 12 years from the initial eight years in the January 2026 PFS, with combined Probable Reserves lifted to 14.3Mt at 2.6% copper for 370kt of contained copper

• Base case pre-tax NPV of US$213m (IRR 15.6%) and post-tax NPV of US$126m (IRR 13.3%) at a copper price of US$4.70/lb

  • Rising to a pre-tax NPV of US$707m (IRR 30.4%) and post-tax NPV of US$516m (IRR 26.3%) at US$6.00/lb near current spot

• Life-of-mine post-tax cashflow of US$476m, up US$122m on the prior study, with the project forecast to generate US$3.3bn gross revenue and US$1.3bn pre-tax net cashflow

• Average annual production of around 31,000t of contained copper at a direct operating cash cost of US$2.68/lb and life-of-mine AISC of US$3.04/lb

• Lowry addition lowers unit operating costs by US$2.28/t via mechanised long-hole stoping and concurrent mining, with construction capital unchanged at US$474m and payback about four years from commissioning

• Lowry development remains subject to permitting, expected to be finalised within six years of the main Johnny Lee decline commencing

Company page: Sandfire Resources (SFR)

Aroa Biosurgery CFO James Agnew resigns

[8:45 am] Aroa Biosurgery's CFO and Joint Company Secretary James Agnew has resigned after 13 years, remaining until the end of November 2026 to manage the transition. The company has begun a recruitment process to appoint a new CFO and will update the market in due course.

Company page: Aroa Biosurgery (ARX)

US-Iran ceasefire collapses as Hormuz traffic grinds to a near halt

[8:42 am] The US and Iran continue to trade strikes as the three-week-old ceasefire circles the drain.

• US forces struck around 90 Iranian military targets on Thursday including air defence, coastal surveillance, missile and drone storage and naval assets, following a July 7 round that hit about 80 targets and more than 60 IRGC small boats, in retaliation for Iranian attacks on three commercial vessels near the strait

• Trump declared the ceasefire "over", revoked the waiver on Iranian oil sanctions and said he may no longer want a deal, while Iran accused the US of violating the agreement and the IRGC struck US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain

• Hormuz traffic slowed sharply, with 13 tankers crossing on Wednesday versus a 33 per day average over the prior week per Kpler, and only five commercial ships crossing overnight into Thursday with no outbound tankers per Windward

• Some tankers are transiting "dark" with transponders off to reduce attack risk, while the US-supported Omani corridor sat empty of observable traffic and signs of electronic interference reappeared in the Gulf of Oman

Leveraged ETFs and chip duo now drive 70% of Korean trading as Kospi enters bear market

[8:39 am] Retail hype over single-stock leveraged ETFs tracking Samsung and SK Hynix has driven extreme concentration in the world's top-performing market, now backfiring as AI investment doubts whipsaw the chipmakers.

• The two chipmakers and the leveraged ETFs tracking them make up more than 70% of trading value in the $4.3 trillion market, with that ratio hitting 84% in late June and standing at 73% on Tuesday, up from 31% chip turnover the day before the ETFs listed in late May

• Samsung and SK Hynix account for 54% of the Kospi's weighting, with both stocks more than tripling this year at their peaks before AI investment questions sparked outsized swings

• Kospi now down 22% from its 19-Jun peak and in a technical bear market, with a market-wide trading suspension triggered for the sixth time this year on Tuesday as equities plunged more than 8% intraday

Source: Bloomberg

Global M&A on track to eclipse 2021 boom, Morgan Stanley says

[8:38 am] Morgan Stanley expects global M&A to hit a record US$6.4 trillion in 2026 as buoyant equity markets, renewed corporate confidence and a lighter-touch US regulatory regime drive a broad-based revival in dealmaking.

• Announced deals surged more than 64% year-on-year in the second quarter, led by software, utilities, energy and healthcare, while deal completions climbed more than 33%

• Lighter-touch antitrust enforcement under the Trump administration has made the M&A backdrop more constructive, easing concerns that aggressive enforcement could derail transactions

• Private-equity sponsors are sitting on about US$4.3 trillion of dry powder, with sponsor-backed M&A announcements up more than 10% in the second quarter

• Potential interest-rate hikes remain the key risk to the outlook given higher borrowing costs dampen activity and make leveraged buyouts harder to execute, though the current wave has proven largely resilient

Source: Reuters

PepsiCo slips as North American softness prompts caution on second-half recovery

[8:37 am] PepsiCo affirmed full-year guidance but flagged a softer North American business and a more gradual improvement ahead, alongside rising input cost inflation. The stock finished the session down 3.2%.

• Revenue up 6.4% to $24.181bn vs $23.96bn ests (1% beat)

• Adjusted EPS up 4% to $2.20 vs $2.19 ests (in line)

• Operating profit of $4.02bn vs $4.06bn ests (1% miss)

• Foods North America revenue of $6.37bn vs $6.48bn ests (2% miss)

• EMEA revenue of $4.98bn vs $4.89bn ests (2% beat)

• Affirmed FY26 guidance of 2-4% organic revenue growth and 4-6% core constant currency EPS growth, with organic revenue growth of 2.4% in the quarter

• Management flagged softer than anticipated North America performance and a more gradual recovery for the rest of the year, plus higher input cost inflation in H2, with the CEO saying the near-term US outlook depends on the price of gas while international markets remain resilient

Wall Street higher on semi and memory strength

[8:33 am] Major benchmarks finished higher and near session highs, with momentum names leading on semiconductor and memory strength.

• Nasdaq up 1.3%, S&P 500 up 0.8%, the Dow lagged up 0.3%

• Momentum outperformed on semi/memory strength, Meta reportedly doubling compute capacity to 14GW by next year sharpening focus on the hyperscaler capex narrative

• Applied Materials CEO talked up an extended semi cycle and strong visibility over at least the next eight quarters, though the momentum rally has not stopped the broadening-out trade, with financials, discretionary, industrials and more

• Consumer staples came under pressure, with Pepsi and Costco among the big decliners on North American softness, inflation headwinds and a slightly soft June sales read from Costco

• Treasuries firmed, though 10-year yields held above 4.5% and 30-year yields above 5.0%, with the higher-rate environment attributed partly to corporate supply including surprise new issuance from Amazon

• Oil stayed on the defensive despite a ramp in kinetic activity and reports of Strait of Hormuz traffic at a standstill, with the market still sceptical of meaningful re-escalation and weighing a run of supply glut headlines

Good morning

[8:24 am] ASX 200 futures are down 2 pts (-0.02%).

The overnight session in a nutshell:

• Wall Street closed higher with the Nasdaq up 1.3% and the S&P 500 up 0.8%, both finishing near session highs as a sharp semiconductor rebound offset weakness in the AI hyperscalers, staples and energy stocks

• Chipmakers led the advance after Micron unveiled a US$3 billion domestic supply deal and SK Hynix drew heavy demand for its US listing, reviving the AI memory trade

• Staples underperformed on soft earnings from Pepsi and Costco, US and Iran continued to trade strikes, Hormuz traffic has come to a near halt and oil prices eased ~4% overnight