ASX 200 Live Today - Friday, 10th July

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Friday, July 10. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. We'll be wrapping the blog up around 2:00 pm AEST. Let us know how we can make it even better.

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New updates

ASX 200 snaps four-day losing streak, still down for the week

[2:05 pm] Another dicey week for markets, kicking off with a four-day losing streak that included two wild sessions: Wednesday closed 0.21% lower against a session low of -1.44%, and Thursday finished down 0.26% versus a low of -0.96%. The ASX 200 is currently up 0.51% and on track to snap the streak, though still down 0.4% for the week. All the up and down, and the index is still tracking 1.0% higher year-to-date.

Today is a bit of an opposite day. Materials (+2.3%) is bouncing after falling as much as 14% since 17 June, while Healthcare (-1.9%) is pulling back sharply after rallying almost 25% since 3 June. Will these oversold sectors kick on, or is it just a bounce? And is healthcare taking a healthy breather, or fading against a still-deteriorating earnings backdrop?

S&P/ASX 200 Materials index daily chart (Source: TradingView)

S&P/ASX 200 Healthcare index daily chart (Source: TradingView)

That's all for this week. Have a good weekend :)

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Best and worst performing stocks of the week

[1:51 pm] Here are the S&P/ASX 200 stocks that have recorded the largest gains and losses for the week

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Large cap tech stocks down, mid caps on the rise

[1:50 pm] The S&P/ASX 200 Tech Index is trading bang on breakeven, as weakness from larger names like Pro Medicus (-5.7%), Wisetech (-1.2%) and Xero (-0.7%) is offset by gains from Bravura (+15.8%), Megaport (+2.0%), Digico (+2.0%) and more.

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US Section 232 copper tariff decision awaited, fundamental outlook stays constructive says UBS

[1:06 pm] UBS weighs a range of outcomes for the pending US Section 232 copper tariff decision, seeing any moderation in US imports as only a modest headwind while remaining positive on copper's fundamentals.

• A July 2025 proclamation set a 30 June 2026 date for the Commerce Secretary to update the President on copper markets, informing a possible 15% refined copper import duty from 1 January 2027, though UBS notes this was a target to present information rather than a decision date

• Tariff prospects have opened the Comex-LME arbitrage, driving 2025 US refined copper imports to 1.66mt, more than double the prior five-year average, and lifting total visible US inventories from near zero to over 700kt

• US now holds around 65% of visible global inventory despite accounting for less than 10% of global copper demand, with Comex stocks up from under 50kt in mid-2024 to over 600kt

• No tariffs (negative, seen as unlikely): Comex could move to a discount to LME, reversing the arb and potentially re-exporting much of the 700kt US inventory, pressuring prices

• 15% tariff from 1 Jan 2027 (neutral/small positive): Comex moves to a small discount to the implied 15%, but the import arb stays open and likely widens from around 5% currently, incentivising continued excess US imports until implementation

• Deferral (neutral): downward pressure on Comex and a narrower premium to LME, though the future tariff prospect keeps the import arb open, immediate 15% implementation (neutral/negative) would close the arb, lower imports and start a drawdown of US stockpiles

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Bubs Australia appoints Chris Rowe as CFO as Naomi Verloop resigns

[1:01 pm] Bubs Australia has appointed dairy and consumer sector veteran Chris Rowe as Chief Financial Officer, replacing Naomi Verloop who has resigned.

• Chris Rowe brings more than 30 years of leadership experience across the dairy and consumer sectors, including infant formula supply

• Rowe most recently served as B2B President and CFO at Darigold in Seattle, and was previously Commercial Director of Fonterra Brands Australia, with senior roles across Australia, Asia and the US

• Naomi Verloop has resigned as CFO

Company page: Bubs Australia (BUB)

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Gold stocks snap four-day losing streak

[12:59 pm] The S&P/ASX All Ords Gold index is set to snap a four-day losing streak, currently up 3.0%. Gold prices gained 1.0% overnight, but still breakeven for the past week and down 3% in the past month.

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Uranium stocks trading broadly higher

[12:50 pm] Local uranium names are up 4-9% after Australia has signed a landmark deal to sell uranium to India for power generation, agreed during Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit to Melbourne.

• India will purchase uranium for exclusively peaceful purposes, per a statement from the Indian Ministry of External Affairs, as New Delhi seeks to boost its nuclear energy capacity

• The statement did not detail how much uranium oxide, or yellowcake, would be purchased or over what time frame

• The agreement was signed during Modi's visit to Melbourne, alongside Prime Minister Anthony Albanese

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Miners snap a four-day losing streak

[11:17 am] The S&P/ASX 200 Materials index is currently up 1.7%, snapping a four-day losing streak and a timely bounce off the 200-day moving average.

S&P/ASX 200 Materials index daily chart (Source: TradingView)

Here are the best performing large cap names at the moment.

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ASX 200 edges higher

[11:05 am] The ASX 200 is up 0.16% as miners snap a four-day losing streak and banks edge higher. Meanwhile, recent high-flying sectors like Healthcare, Discretionary and Staples take a breather.

S&P/ASX 200 sectors (Source: Market Index)

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Ingenia confirms talks with Peet and potential capital partners

[11:01 am] Ingenia Communities has confirmed it is in discussions with Peet and potential capital partners on opportunities aligned to its land lease growth strategy, following recent media speculation.

• In discussions with Peet and potential capital partners, consistent with accelerating growth in the land lease segment

• Talks centre on extending the land bank beyond the 5-Year Plan and accessing additional capital sources

• Focus remains on enhancing security holder value through greater scale, exposure to housing demand and improved financial strength and flexibility

• No certainty the discussions will result in any transaction, with Ingenia declining to comment further given their nature and stage

This announcement was released at 10:52 am, Ingenia shares are currently halted and will resume trading shortly.

Company page: Ingenia Communities Group (INA)

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Rural Funds sells five assets for $255m at 22.7% premium to book

[10:59 am] Rural Funds has exchanged contracts to sell five assets, using proceeds to reduce gearing back within its target range in line with its stated deleveraging strategy.

• Five assets sold for a combined $255.6m, an average 22.7% premium to 31 December 2025 book values

• Pro forma gearing cut to 31.6% from 39.1% at 31 December 2025, within the 30-35% target range, with proceeds initially applied to the core debt facility

• Sales satisfy the condition precedent to increase the guarantee to J&F Australia from $160.0m to $200.0m when required by JBS, though the guarantee currently remains at $160.0m

• FIRB approval is required for the Cobungra purchase, with all other sales unconditional and settlements expected predominantly in 1H27

• Transactions expected to provide a net benefit to AFFO following settlement, with FY26 forecast AFFO of 11.7 cpu reaffirmed

This announcement was released at 10:11 am, Rural Funds shares are down 0.5% at the time of writing.

Company page: Rural Funds Group (RFF)

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WiseTech says DSV remains active customer as volumes grow 20%

[10:16 am] WiseTech has moved to clarify its relationship with major customer DSV amid media speculation, saying the freight forwarder remains active and committed under contract to September 2028.

• CargoWise transaction volumes with DSV grew around 20% over the last six months following DSV's integration of DB Schenker, with user counts up around 3%

• Both parties remain committed under an existing contract including a substantial financial commitment until September 2028

• Discussions continue on potential additional collaboration, including for the period beyond September 2028

• CEO Zubin Appoo said he reiterated WiseTech's commitment to DSV in a recent meeting with DSV CEO Jens Lund in Denmark

• Management noted customer attrition has run below 1% for the last 14 years, describing CargoWise as very sticky and hard to replace once deployed, with any changes expected to be long-term and very gradual

Company page: WiseTech Global (WTC)

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Nine edges closer to six-year EPL extension worth almost US$600m

[10:16 am] The AFR reports Nine Entertainment is in advanced talks to retain the English Premier League on Stan Sport in a six-year deal that would keep the rights until the end of the 2034 season.

• Nine would pay between US$90m and US$100m annually, larger than Optus' last deal and slightly below the annual NRL fee signed earlier this week, with a formal agreement possibly signed this month

• The existing EPL deal runs to the end of 2027-28 and is split between Nine and Optus, with Nine currently paying around $60m in annual payments plus the $20m it paid to take over Optus Sport in 2025

• Stan Sport subscribers grew 40% since the EPL deal, with Stan's costs up $30m or 14% and earnings up 24%, across 2.4 million paying subscribers on the combined platform

Source: AFR

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Top ASX 200 losers

[10:13 am] Here are the worst performing large caps in early trade, with healthcare stocks experiencing a broad pullback after a strong run up, energy stock giving back gains and Elevra trading lower after its quarterly report flagged lower realised lithium pricing due to contractual lagged pricing mechanism.

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Top ASX 200 gainers

[10:11 am] Here are the best performing large caps in early trade, most of which are gold, uranium and copper names.

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Bravura rallies 12% in early trade

[10:05 am] Bravura is up 12% to $2.30 in early trade after upgrading its FY26 cash EBITDA guidance to ~$77 million vs. prior guidance of $69-77 million, an 8% upgrade at the midpoint. The company cited a better GBP/AUD exchange rate and strong demand for project services across business units and maintained cost discipline.

Interestingly, the stock is still trading ~20% below when it upgraded its FY26 guidance on 1 October 2025.

Bravura daily price chart (Source: TradingView)

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NEXTDC upsizes new senior debt facilities to $2.3bn on strong bank syndicate support

[9:32 am] NEXTDC has entered binding documentation for $2.3 billion of new senior debt facilities, $500 million more than the commitments flagged in May, to fund its data centre expansion.

• New facilities of $2.3bn, up $500m on the $1.8bn of commitments announced on 5 May 2026, reflecting strong support from a broad syndicate of domestic and international banks

• Total available senior debt facilities to increase from $6.4bn to $8.7bn on financial close

• Builds on recent capital raisings comprising the $1.5bn entitlement offer, $1.7bn hybrid securities offer and $750m wholesale notes offer, further diversifying funding sources

• Proceeds to primarily fund capex tied to recent customer contract wins, ongoing data centre developments and general corporate purposes

• Margins broadly consistent with existing senior debt facilities of similar tenor, governed by the existing Common Terms Deed Poll

Company page: NEXTDC (NXT)

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Bravura Solutions lifts FY26 cash EBITDA guidance on strong project services demand

[9:21 am] Bravura now expects FY26 cash EBITDA of about $77 million, well above prior guidance, driven by strong project services demand and cost discipline.

• Cash EBITDA of approximately $77m, up from prior guidance of $69-77m, an 8% upgrade at the midpoint

• Revenue of $280-285m, unchanged and within the previously guided range

• PPE capex of approximately $4m, unchanged

• Update reflects an average GBP/AUD rate of 1.92 for 2H26, down from 1.95 assumed previously

• Improved outcome driven by strong demand for project services across business units and maintained cost discipline

• FY26 full-year results scheduled for release on 12 August 2026

Analyst coverage of Bravura has been thin in recent months. The most recent I have is from just after the February 1H26 result, when Macquarie forecast full-year cash EBITDA of $70.4m. Today's upgrade sits around 9.3% ahead of that estimate. Bravura has not released any price-sensitive news since the half-year.

Bravura announced a similar catalyst on 1 October 2025, where it upgraded its FY26 cash EBITDA guidance to $55-65 million vs. prior guidance of at least $50 million, representing an upgrade of 20% at the midpoint. The stock rallied 18% on the day.

Company page: Bravura Solutions (BVS)

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Elevra Lithium lifts June quarter production by 15%

[9:01 am] Elevra's North American Lithium operation in Québec delivered its second-highest quarterly production, but realised pricing sat below spot due to contractual lagged pricing mechanisms.

• Spodumene concentrate production up 15% to approximately 54,479dmt from the March quarter, the second-highest quarterly output at NAL to date

• Sales of approximately 33,977dmt at an average realised price of around US$919 per dmt sold, FOB on a provisional basis, below spot due to lagged pricing

• May production of approximately 22,202dmt set a monthly record, with full-year production totalling approximately 197,968dmt

• Provisional inventory on hand of 40,863dmt at quarter end, reflecting customer delivery schedules

• June quarter shipments carried a lagged pricing mechanism reflecting October 2025 to March 2026 market prices and included the final volumes under Elevra's most substantial legacy contract

• Realised pricing from Q1 FY27 is expected to align more closely with prevailing spot pricing

Company page: Elevra Lithium (ELV)

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Commodities bounced overnight

[9:01 am] Commodity prices traded broadly higher overnight, with dual-listed names like BHP and Newmont closing 2.0% and 1.7% higher, respectively.

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Sandfire America upgrades Black Butte PFS

[8:49 am] The addition of the Lowry deposit lifts mine life to 12 years and improves project economics, positioning Black Butte as one of the highest-grade undeveloped underground copper projects in the US.

• Mine life extended 50% to 12 years from the initial eight years in the January 2026 PFS, with combined Probable Reserves lifted to 14.3Mt at 2.6% copper for 370kt of contained copper

• Base case pre-tax NPV of US$213m (IRR 15.6%) and post-tax NPV of US$126m (IRR 13.3%) at a copper price of US$4.70/lb

  • Rising to a pre-tax NPV of US$707m (IRR 30.4%) and post-tax NPV of US$516m (IRR 26.3%) at US$6.00/lb near current spot

• Life-of-mine post-tax cashflow of US$476m, up US$122m on the prior study, with the project forecast to generate US$3.3bn gross revenue and US$1.3bn pre-tax net cashflow

• Average annual production of around 31,000t of contained copper at a direct operating cash cost of US$2.68/lb and life-of-mine AISC of US$3.04/lb

• Lowry addition lowers unit operating costs by US$2.28/t via mechanised long-hole stoping and concurrent mining, with construction capital unchanged at US$474m and payback about four years from commissioning

• Lowry development remains subject to permitting, expected to be finalised within six years of the main Johnny Lee decline commencing

Company page: Sandfire Resources (SFR)

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Aroa Biosurgery CFO James Agnew resigns

[8:45 am] Aroa Biosurgery's CFO and Joint Company Secretary James Agnew has resigned after 13 years, remaining until the end of November 2026 to manage the transition. The company has begun a recruitment process to appoint a new CFO and will update the market in due course.

Company page: Aroa Biosurgery (ARX)

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US-Iran ceasefire collapses as Hormuz traffic grinds to a near halt

[8:42 am] The US and Iran continue to trade strikes as the three-week-old ceasefire circles the drain.

• US forces struck around 90 Iranian military targets on Thursday including air defence, coastal surveillance, missile and drone storage and naval assets, following a July 7 round that hit about 80 targets and more than 60 IRGC small boats, in retaliation for Iranian attacks on three commercial vessels near the strait

• Trump declared the ceasefire "over", revoked the waiver on Iranian oil sanctions and said he may no longer want a deal, while Iran accused the US of violating the agreement and the IRGC struck US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain

• Hormuz traffic slowed sharply, with 13 tankers crossing on Wednesday versus a 33 per day average over the prior week per Kpler, and only five commercial ships crossing overnight into Thursday with no outbound tankers per Windward

• Some tankers are transiting "dark" with transponders off to reduce attack risk, while the US-supported Omani corridor sat empty of observable traffic and signs of electronic interference reappeared in the Gulf of Oman

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Leveraged ETFs and chip duo now drive 70% of Korean trading as Kospi enters bear market

[8:39 am] Retail hype over single-stock leveraged ETFs tracking Samsung and SK Hynix has driven extreme concentration in the world's top-performing market, now backfiring as AI investment doubts whipsaw the chipmakers.

• The two chipmakers and the leveraged ETFs tracking them make up more than 70% of trading value in the $4.3 trillion market, with that ratio hitting 84% in late June and standing at 73% on Tuesday, up from 31% chip turnover the day before the ETFs listed in late May

• Samsung and SK Hynix account for 54% of the Kospi's weighting, with both stocks more than tripling this year at their peaks before AI investment questions sparked outsized swings

• Kospi now down 22% from its 19-Jun peak and in a technical bear market, with a market-wide trading suspension triggered for the sixth time this year on Tuesday as equities plunged more than 8% intraday

Source: Bloomberg

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Global M&A on track to eclipse 2021 boom, Morgan Stanley says

[8:38 am] Morgan Stanley expects global M&A to hit a record US$6.4 trillion in 2026 as buoyant equity markets, renewed corporate confidence and a lighter-touch US regulatory regime drive a broad-based revival in dealmaking.

• Announced deals surged more than 64% year-on-year in the second quarter, led by software, utilities, energy and healthcare, while deal completions climbed more than 33%

• Lighter-touch antitrust enforcement under the Trump administration has made the M&A backdrop more constructive, easing concerns that aggressive enforcement could derail transactions

• Private-equity sponsors are sitting on about US$4.3 trillion of dry powder, with sponsor-backed M&A announcements up more than 10% in the second quarter

• Potential interest-rate hikes remain the key risk to the outlook given higher borrowing costs dampen activity and make leveraged buyouts harder to execute, though the current wave has proven largely resilient

Source: Reuters

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PepsiCo slips as North American softness prompts caution on second-half recovery

[8:37 am] PepsiCo affirmed full-year guidance but flagged a softer North American business and a more gradual improvement ahead, alongside rising input cost inflation. The stock finished the session down 3.2%.

• Revenue up 6.4% to $24.181bn vs $23.96bn ests (1% beat)

• Adjusted EPS up 4% to $2.20 vs $2.19 ests (in line)

• Operating profit of $4.02bn vs $4.06bn ests (1% miss)

• Foods North America revenue of $6.37bn vs $6.48bn ests (2% miss)

• EMEA revenue of $4.98bn vs $4.89bn ests (2% beat)

• Affirmed FY26 guidance of 2-4% organic revenue growth and 4-6% core constant currency EPS growth, with organic revenue growth of 2.4% in the quarter

• Management flagged softer than anticipated North America performance and a more gradual recovery for the rest of the year, plus higher input cost inflation in H2, with the CEO saying the near-term US outlook depends on the price of gas while international markets remain resilient

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Wall Street higher on semi and memory strength

[8:33 am] Major benchmarks finished higher and near session highs, with momentum names leading on semiconductor and memory strength.

• Nasdaq up 1.3%, S&P 500 up 0.8%, the Dow lagged up 0.3%

• Momentum outperformed on semi/memory strength, Meta reportedly doubling compute capacity to 14GW by next year sharpening focus on the hyperscaler capex narrative

• Applied Materials CEO talked up an extended semi cycle and strong visibility over at least the next eight quarters, though the momentum rally has not stopped the broadening-out trade, with financials, discretionary, industrials and more

• Consumer staples came under pressure, with Pepsi and Costco among the big decliners on North American softness, inflation headwinds and a slightly soft June sales read from Costco

• Treasuries firmed, though 10-year yields held above 4.5% and 30-year yields above 5.0%, with the higher-rate environment attributed partly to corporate supply including surprise new issuance from Amazon

• Oil stayed on the defensive despite a ramp in kinetic activity and reports of Strait of Hormuz traffic at a standstill, with the market still sceptical of meaningful re-escalation and weighing a run of supply glut headlines

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Good morning

[8:24 am] ASX 200 futures are down 2 pts (-0.02%).

The overnight session in a nutshell:

• Wall Street closed higher with the Nasdaq up 1.3% and the S&P 500 up 0.8%, both finishing near session highs as a sharp semiconductor rebound offset weakness in the AI hyperscalers, staples and energy stocks

• Chipmakers led the advance after Micron unveiled a US$3 billion domestic supply deal and SK Hynix drew heavy demand for its US listing, reviving the AI memory trade

• Staples underperformed on soft earnings from Pepsi and Costco, US and Iran continued to trade strikes, Hormuz traffic has come to a near halt and oil prices eased ~4% overnight