Evening Wrap: ASX 200 gives up early gain as CSL earning miss and tumbling lithium stocks drag

Stocks on the ASX closed largely flat after a promising start. There were plenty of stock and sector specific moves under the surface, though. CSL dipped 5% on an earnings miss, and lithium stocks dipped much more than that in many cases on...well...that's an interesting story! 🤔

Click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all the key upcoming economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.

Markets

ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 1.2 points higher at 8,484.0, 0.37% from its session high and just 0.04% from its low. In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO), advancers beat decliners by a modest 157 to 121.

Healthcare giant CSL (ASX: CSL) (-5.0%) was perhaps the most notable among individual stock moves as investors reacted negatively to the company's first half results. CSL missed consensus estimates on most major metrics, including revenue and underlying profit, due to slower than expected growth at its vaccines and iron deficiency therapies businesses.

Lithium stocks also get a special mention – and also for all the wrong reasons! Shares across the sector tumbled today without much news on a stock-by-stock level. It's worth considering, however, that today's sell off could be a delayed response to news earlier in the week that the world's largest EV battery manufacturer, CATL, had restarted production at one of its Chinese lepidolite mines.

The recent fledgling rally in lithium commodity prices could be quashed by another uptick in supply from the dominant player in the EV battery supply chain. The benchmark May lithium carbonate contract on China's GFEX exchange was down over 1.5% today.

It could also be ongoing fall out from the escalating trade war, for example, with respect to tariffs on various EV supply chain materials. More generally, we know President Trump isn't a huge fan of EVs – nor of the energy transition...🤔

Indeed, there are many theories, and dare I say – excuses – for why shares in the lithium sector fell today. Despite all of these, only one thing is for sure: Charts across the sector all tell the same story! 📉

Pilbara Minerals (ASX: PLS) chart (click here for full size image)

Economy

Today

• 10:30 AUS Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment February

  • +0.1% to 92.2 vs -0.7% in January (readings below 100 indicate pessimism)

  • From the survey:

    • "Firming rate cut expectations supporting a positive outlook for finances" but "Unsettled global backdrop restraining expectations for the economy"

    • In the housing market: "Affordability challenges still holding back sentiment towards home–buying"

• 11:30 NAB Business Confidence January

  • Confidence rose 6 index points to +4 points vs -2 points in December

  • Conditions fell 3 index points to +3 points vs +3 points in December

  • From the survey:

    • Confidence remains weakest in retail and wholesale and strongest in transport & utilities and mining

    • Conditions weakened in all states except WA (+6pts) and SA (unchanged). In trend terms, conditions are now weakest in VIC and remain strongest in QLD.

    • Purchase cost growth eased to 1.1% in quarterly equivalent terms while labour cost growth edged up to 1.8%. Product price growth was unchanged at 0.8%. Retail price growth edged up marginally to 0.9%.

Later this week

Tuesday

• Time TBA CHN New Loans & Money Supply

  • New Loans January: 770 billion forecast vs 990 billion previous

  • M2 Money Supply January: +7.3% p.a. forecast vs +7.3% p.a. previous

Wednesday

• 02:00 USA Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report before the Senate Banking Committee - Day 1

Thursday

• 00:30 USA Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) January (+0.3% m/m and +3.2% p.a. forecast vs +0.2% m/m and +3.2% p.a. in December)

• 02:00 USA Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report before the Senate Banking Committee - Day 2

• AUS MI Inflation Expectations January (+4.0 p.a. in December)

Friday

• 00:30 USA Core Producer Price Index (PPI) January (+0.3% m/m and +3.3% p.a. forecast vs 0.0% m/m and +3.5% p.a. in December)

Saturday

• 00:30 USA Core Retail Sales January (+0.3% m/m forecast vs +0.4% m/m in December)

Latest News

Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +14.0% Nine Entertainment (NEC) - No news, general strength across the broader Communication Services sector today, but possibly also related to better than expected results at SWM / short covering.

• +8.8% Aurum Resources (AUE) - No news, general strength across the broader Gold sector today.

• +8.5% Charter Hall Social Infrastructure Reit (CQE) - Appendix 4D and HY25 Interim Financial Report and HY25 Results Presentation.

• +6.9% Firefly Metals (FFM) - No news, general strength across the broader Gold sector today.

• +6.5% WIA Gold (WIA) - No news, general strength across the broader Gold sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends 🔎📈

• +6.3% Santana Minerals (SMI) - No news, 07-Feb Corporate Presentation, general strength across the broader Gold sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends 🔎📈

• +6.1% SGH (SGH) - Appendix 4D & Half Year Financial Report and Presentation of Half Year Results, general strength across the broader Communication Services sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +5.8% St Barbara (SBM) - No news, general strength across the broader Gold sector today,

• +5.4% Larvotto Resources (LRV) - No news, 03-Feb Company Presentation - 121 Mining, general strength across the broader Gold sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +5.3% Brainchip (BRN) - No news, move is consistent with recent volatility.

• +5.2% Ora Banda Mining (OBM) - No news, general strength across the broader Gold sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +4.9% Evolution Mining (EVN) - No news, general strength across the broader Gold sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +4.9% Aurelia Metals (AMI) - No news since 04-Feb Blue Ocean Equities Mining Conference - Presentation, general strength across the broader Gold sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a recent regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +4.8% Kelly Partners Group (KPG) - No news since 05-Feb Market Release 1H25 Half Year Results, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +4.8% Brightstar Resources (BTR) - Continued positive response to 10-Feb High-Grades up to 65g/t Au at Second Fortune Gold Mine, general strength across the broader Gold sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing long term uptrend 🔎📈

• +4.8% Catalyst Metals (CYL) - No news since 03-Feb Corporate Presentation - Plutonic Belt Exploration, general strength across the broader Gold sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +4.6% Dicker Data (DDR) - Continued positive response to 10-Feb Dividend/Distribution - DDR.

• +4.3% Alkane Resources (ALK) - No news, general strength across the broader Gold sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend and long term trend is transitioning from down to up, a recent regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +4.2% Meeka Metals (MEK) - 2025 Unearthed Natural Resources Conference Presentation, general strength across the broader Gold sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +4.1% Bravura Solutions (BVS) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +4.0% Northern Star Resources (NST) - No news, general strength across the broader Gold sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

Trading lower

• -9.1% Liontown Resources (LTR) - No news, general weakness across the broader Lithium sector today, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -8.0% Cettire (CTT) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -7.4% Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals. (PAR) - Listing of Options - Top 20 Holders and Distribution Reports.

• -6.9% Mineral Resources (MIN) - No news, general weakness across the broader Lithium sector today, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -6.3% Droneshield (DRO) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -5.6% Peninsula Energy (PEN) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -4.9% CSL (CSL) - CSL Statutory Accounts for the Half Year Ended 31 Dec 2024 and CSL Half Year Results Investor Presentation, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -4.9% Clarity Pharmaceuticals (CU6) - Clarity expands pipeline with Cu-64/67 SAR-trastuzumab, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -4.7% WA1 Resources (WA1) - No news, move is consistent with recent volatility.

• -4.6% Austal (ASB) - No news, downgraded to neutral from overweight at JP Morgan (but price target increased to $3.75 from $3.50),

• -4.3% IGO (IGO) - No news, general weakness across the broader Lithium sector today, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -4.0% Sayona Mining (SYA) - No news, general weakness across the broader Lithium sector today, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -4.0% The Star Entertainment Group (SGR) - No news since 10-Feb Response to Media Speculation, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -3.6% Pilbara Minerals (PLS) - No news since 10-Feb Business and Earnings Update, general weakness across the broader Lithium sector today, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -3.1% Coronado Global Resources (CRN) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

Broker Moves

• 29METALS (29M)

  • Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $0.200

• 4DMEDICAL (4DX)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.700 from $0.750

• AMP (AMP)

  • Retained at sell at UBS; Price Target: $1.250

• Ansell (ANN)

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $38.00 from $32.50

  • Downgraded to hold from outperform at CLSA; Price Target: $39.20 from $38.00

  • Downgraded to neutral from overweight at JP Morgan; Price Target: $40.00 from $33.00

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $40.30 from $32.00

  • Retained at hold at Morgans; Price Target: $33.38 from $27.10

  • Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $41.00 from $39.00

  • Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $38.20 from $36.00

• Austal (ASB)

  • Downgraded to neutral from overweight at JP Morgan; Price Target: $3.75 from $3.50

• ASX (ASX)

  • Retained at sell at UBS; Price Target: $65.00

• AUB Group (AUB)

  • Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $33.30

• Bendigo and Adelaide Bank (BEN)

  • Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $12.00

• BHP Group (BHP)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $46.00

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $48.50

• Boss Energy (BOE)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $3.60

• Breville Group (BRG)

  • Upgraded to hold from underweight at CLSA; Price Target: $38.45

  • Retained at positive at E&P; Price Target: $33.47

  • Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $28.00

  • Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $32.70

• Bluescope Steel (BSL)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $24.00

  • Retained at accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $24.00 from $22.60

• Car Group (CAR)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $42.40

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $43.90 from $45.30

  • Retained at buy at Jefferies; Price Target: $43.70 from $43.60

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $39.00 from $37.10

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $42.00

  • Upgraded to add from hold at Morgans; Price Target: $41.40 from $37.20

  • Downgraded to sector perform from outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $39.00 from $39.50

  • Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $45.00 from $42.60

• Challenger (CGF)

  • Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $7.65

• Computershare (CPU)

  • Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $36.15

• Capstone Copper Corp. (CSC)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $13.50

• CSL (CSL)

  • Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $286.00

  • Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $320.00

• Dicker Data (DDR)

  • Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $9.50

• DigiCo REIT (DGT)

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $5.80

  • Initiated at overweight at JP Morgan; Price Target: $5.20

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $5.33

  • Retained at add at Morgans; Price Target: $5.60

  • Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $5.60

• Domino's Pizza Enterprises (DMP)

  • Retained at hold at Morgans; Price Target: $33.00 from $30.00

• Deterra Royalties (DRR)

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $4.40

• Dexus Convenience Retail Reit (DXC)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $3.30

  • Retained at accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $3.13 from $3.11

• Emerald Resources (EMR)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $4.45

• Evolution Mining (EVN)

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $6.00 from $5.80

• Fortescue (FMG)

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $21.00

• Generation Development Group (GDG)

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $4.90

  • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $5.00 from $4.50

• Genesis Minerals (GMD)

  • Downgraded to neutral from buy at Citi; Price Target: $3.40 from $3.20

• GQG Partners (GQG)

  • Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $2.32

• Hub24 (HUB)

  • Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $75.50

• Insignia Financial (IFL)

  • Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $4.60

• IGO (IGO)

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $5.30

• Ikegps Group (IKE)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.930

• Iluka Resources (ILU)

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $5.60

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $7.40

• Incitec Pivot (IPL)

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $3.35

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.09 from $3.15

  • Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $2.90

  • Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $3.50

• Janison Education Group (JAN)

  • Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $0.330

• JB HI-FI (JBH)

  • Downgraded to hold from buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $99.00 from $98.00

  • Retained at neutral at E&P; Price Target: $88.32 from $80.74

  • Retained at sell at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $73.90 from $75.50

  • Retained at neutral at Jarden; Price Target: $95.80 from $84.00

  • Retained at neutral at JP Morgan; Price Target: $91.00 from $92.00

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $111.00 from $108.00

  • Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $69.20

  • Retained at hold at Morgans; Price Target: $92.00 from $87.00

  • Upgraded to hold from lighten at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $89.00 from $85.00

  • Retained at sell at UBS; Price Target: $90.00 from $72.00

• Judo Capital (JDO)

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $1.750

• Johns Lyng Group (JLG)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.90

• Insurance Australia Group Group (IAG)

  • Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $9.15

• LGI (LGI)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $3.55

• Light & Wonder (LNW)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $180.00

• Arcadium Lithium (LTM)

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $8.60

• Liontown Resources (LTR)

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $0.600

• Lynas Rare Earths (LYC)

  • Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $5.50

• Magellan Financial Group (MFG)

  • Retained at sell at UBS; Price Target: $10.30

• Mineral Resources (MIN)

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $35.00

• Medibank Private (MPL)

  • Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $4.30

• Macquarie Group (MQG)

  • Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $235.00

• NIB (NHF)

  • Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $6.15

• Nickel Industries (NIC)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $1.000

• Northern Star Resources (NST)

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $17.90 from $17.00

• Netwealth Group (NWL)

  • Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $30.75

• Orora (ORA)

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $2.70 from $2.90

• Paladin Energy (PDN)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $13.50

• Propel Funeral Partners (PFP)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $7.15 from $7.00

• Pilbara Minerals (PLS)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $3.00

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $2.40

• Pinnacle Investment Management Group (PNI)

  • Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $25.20

• Perpetual (PPT)

  • Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $24.00

• Perseus Mining (PRU)

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $3.20

• Platinum Asset Management (PTM)

  • Retained at sell at UBS; Price Target: $0.620

• Pexa Group (PXA)

  • Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $15.50

• QBE Insurance Group (QBE)

  • Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $23.85

• Rio Tinto (RIO)

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $134.00

  • Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $124.00

• Regis Resources (RRL)

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $3.25 from $3.00

• South32 (S32)

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $3.90

• Steadfast Group (SDF)

  • Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $6.85

• Sandfire Resources (SFR)

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $10.50

• SGH (SGH)

  • Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $56.00

• Sims (SGM)

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $13.50

  • Retained at accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $12.40 from $13.60

• Sigma Healthcare (SIG)

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $2.90 from $2.50

• Stanmore Resources (SMR)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $3.40

• Suncorp Group (SUN)

  • Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $20.70

• Seven West Media (SWM)

  • Retained at neutral at E&P; Price Target: $0.190

• Vulcan Steel (VSL)

  • Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $6.50

  • Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $7.10

• Woodside Energy Group (WDS)

  • Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $23.00

• Whitehaven Coal (WHC)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $8.30

Scans